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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

metwannabe said:
seems to be the theme of the day, either something is going on with this system that we will learn from or the models don't have a clue....
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Honestly, here in central NC it's like we're in the Twilight Zone with this storm system or something. It's like the Carolina Crusher without the snow. Crazy!:confused:
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
rgem_asnow_seus_30.png

That is the strangest thing I've ever seen
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Lol
 
System continues to trend west and QPF stays the same or decreases. That’s just bizarre.
 
metwannabe said:
seems to be the theme of the day, either something is going on with this system that we will learn from or the models don't have a clue....
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I don't think anyone has a clue. All day long the system and track looks better based on what's happened in the past, but the precip has been less than expected.
 
Tarheel1 said:
That finger going up to CAE was on the NAM also. Interesting
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It's the slp trying to organize and jumping around on the models, it's why the screw hole in NE SC as well.... will this happen who knows, waiting is the hardest part
 
12km gives middle Georgia a nice snow band 3km says no rgem says yes better track of the system. This things getting crazy who knows what happens till the morning when you look outside and it's snowing or not snowing
 
mrdaddyman said:
I just don't get that. Closer track but less precip. Has the same snow hole in NE SC / SE NC that the 12K NAM has. Strange.
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Its becoming clear what the models are seeing. They are going from double barrel lps and consolidating to a single,stacked low if you will out on the Gulf stream. Then that lp bombs away up the Gulf stream. The reason you see the precip gap from lower SC to NE NC is because that coastal hugging lp off SE coast of GA stops becoming the primary lp and consolidates or yields to the low taking over off to the NE. This temporarly puts a halt to the qpf being thrown inland off to the NW. Then once everything becomes organized it really starts throwing the qpf off to its NW.
So even though you see the rapidly deepening lp right off Hatteras it's to late for a lot of NC cause it's already at our longitude. Look how well it's throwing qpf to its NW up over mid atlantic. Hope this makes sense and that's why on the clowns you see the letdown. If this lp was as strong and more importantly organized off the SE GA coast as it is the NC coast right off Hatteras, it would throw qpf back to the NC/TN line.

I'd rather see this coastal hugger hang on longer futher north up to the SC coast atleast , before giving in to a new deepening LP put over the Gulf stream.
 
Something is seriously off. Snow hole right over NE SC and SE NC. Last night I mentioned something about some closed contours that was showing up on some of the models over the Pee Dee area of SC.

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