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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
Someone's I just don't know lol

You'd think it would be snowing buckets under these tops too
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That is some serious lift over my county to get those type of cloud tops. I just don't see how a storm pinwheeling from the NE florida/ SW GA coast doesn't send the goods up over upper SC and NC. Espeacilly considering it should be rapidly deepening at that moment. Even with the NE heading. And funny how it shoots NE, then at obx lattitude the heading turns way more north than NE. Must be the Gulf Stream shooting out that causes this.
 
So, basically the lack of precip based on the system shown on the models go against all the things we've seen before.
 
NCSNOW said:
That is some serious lift over my county to get those type of cloud tops. I just don't see how a storm pinwheeling from the NE florida/ SW GA coast doesn't send the goods up over upper SC and NC. Espeacilly considering it should be rapidly deepening at that moment. Even with the NE heading. And funny how it shoots NE, then at obx lattitude the heading turns way more north than NE. Must be the Gulf Stream shooting out that causes this.
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DPs too low, too dry. DPs are in the negatives
 
Track looks to be following gulf stream which "should " be ideal for RDU. Gonna be a fun storm to see what actually transpires.
 
The low is a hundred miles west at 0z and the back edge of the precip is east of the same frame at 18z, where the low is a hundred miles east. This is either the biggest screw job of all time, or the model isn’t doing something quite right.
 
Rain Cold said:
The low is a hundred miles west at 0z and the back edge of the precip is east of the same frame at 18z, where the low is a hundred miles east. This is either the biggest screw job of all time, or the model isn’t doing something quite right.
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Yeah, and I have been reading people all day saying the amount of precip shown is too low based on the system shown on the models, and that's been said of the NAM and global models.
 
What is the Nam doing moving west and the RGEM east? It is nearly go time! Get it together, models.
 
dsaur said:
That's why radar is always the best model, lol. Looking at radar I'm thinking it's going to be hard to escape at least a virga storm over heard, but returns seem to be presaging more than that.
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Wow be nice if it could grab some gulf moisture
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
rgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_30.png

Sharp cutoff just like the NAM. The low is actually SW of the 18z but precip is worse.
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I just don't get that. Closer track but less precip. Has the same snow hole in NE SC / SE NC that the 12K NAM has. Strange.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
NAM was hell bent on giving us moisture on New Years in GA and Alabama up north when no other model was showing it. The NAM was very wrong and busted hard. Just saying...
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Right but this is not a NAM situation this is a nowcast situation. No other model picked this up and now the moisture is developing very well out west... flurries from Birmingham to Atlanta tomorrow. No biggie just something to track.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I just don't get that. Closer track but less precip. Has the same snow hole in NE SC / SE NC that the 12K NAM has. Strange.
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seems to be the theme of the day, either something is going on with this system that we will learn from or the models don't have a clue....
 
mrdaddyman said:
I just don't get that. Closer track but less precip. Has the same snow hole in NE SC / SE NC that the 12K NAM has. Strange.
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Yeah, doesnt make sense, and people have been saying that all day. Better track but less precip.
 
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