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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
For what it is worth (not much at this point):

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FWIW, they have had this for a couple of days now on the experimental. Signals, signals, signals....
 
Holy moly at the potential on the 18z GFS. Threat with the first system on new years. Possibly another threat on the second should the s/w in the west dig more. Or just slow down the southern stream and shift it west for big time fireworks after the third. I could really see a massive southern slider with the big trough over the NE holding things from amping too much. Now I'm getting sucked in.

500hv.conus.png
 
Arcc said:
Holy moly at the potential on the 18z GFS. Threat with the first system on new years. Possibly another threat on the second should the s/w in the west dig more. Or just slow down the southern stream and shift it west for big time fireworks after the third.

500hv.conus.png
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I think that was what the cmc was hinting at with the second wave right??
 
Arcc said:
Holy moly at the potential on the 18z GFS. Threat with the first system on new years. Possibly another threat on the second should the s/w in the west dig more. Or just slow down the southern stream and shift it west for big time fireworks after the third. I could really see a massive southern slider with the big trough over the NE holding things from amping too much. Now I'm getting sucked in.

500hv.conus.png
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Well you should be the damn thread has your name in it lol
 
I'm just north of the -1 in Central Georgia and the only known time that we've ever gotten below 0 was during the January 1985 outbreak. My father has told me on several occasions about how it was so cold that morning that his vehicle wouldn't even crank. As everyone else has already stated, I doubt that such an aggressive temperature anomaly actually occurs. However, I wouldn't be surprised if temps weren't only 10-15 degrees colder than what's being depicted.
 
As I've said before, one thing that will determine temps is will there or won't there be a storm? If not, you can add 10-15 degrees right there. Just my opinion, but I think this snap is being shown correctly now by the Euro/GFS.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
As I've said before, one thing that will determine temps is will there or won't there be a storm? If not, you can add 10-15 degrees right there. Just my opinion, but I think this snap is being shown correctly now by the Euro/GFS.
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I agree, but the one factor will be if we have an extremely large amount of frozen precipitation. If such an event occurs, I could easily see temps being in the 5-10 degree range even in my area.
 
Mr. Grinch said:
This is a great solution the wave gets sheared but leaves enough behind it separates from the main flow and bingo you have a 4-8 inch event across central nc

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It never seems to be that easy anymore.
 
Holy smokes thats what id call an improvement on the ECMWF compared to previous runs. Thats some energy!
 
I'm desperate. I am looking at SREF plumes. But seriously, what is the chance we get two or three systems in a row that one of them does not shift NW in time instead of getting crushed?? I could go 2 weeks without breaking 40 and not have a trace of precip. In the summer, sometimes it seems dry begets dry but now it seems winter is doing the same.
 
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