Yeap been there before too, perfect time too give it a lip more energy over rockies
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like someone should shout PREPARE FOR GLORY!About to get a little boost from this guy
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This better not be another fakeout BOOM for some light sleet in the northern fringes!!
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We need to start tilting the upper level flow WSW at hour 120 or so..
Storm5
Member
Getting a little strung out now , not as bad as previous runs
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looking good so far. Let's dig this into the Gulf and we have a good run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol this s/w is still embedded entirely in the northern stream, it needs to cut-off and get separation for a while or else it's cold and dry yet again with these shortwaves diving out of the Pacific NW and northern Rockies
DadOfJax
Member
Just wanted to spice it up a little.. LOLThis better not be another fakeout BOOM for some light sleet in the northern fringes!!
It's trying, definitely improvement I think
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah this might not get it done in this run specifically but it's a clear step towards the CMC and Euro with the wave.
Storm5
Member
Much improved vs previous runs. Still not great but better
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well then, this is a nice change.
Storm5
Member
This run won’t get it done for most but it’s inproved for sure
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Still no appreciable moisture advection yet with west-northwesterly flow at 700 hPa at 126 hours...
Storm5
Member
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Someone else has the Euro h5 map I'm sure but compared to CMC....hmm
Getting there
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Getting there
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The vortex momentarily lifted out, so that's a huge plus it has a chance and better take the small window of opportunity while we have it because here comes another beastly northern stream wave to reinforce the vortex and squash it unless our s/w is in an optimal juxtaposition for a phase
Storm5
Member
Late bloomer much improved
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Pops a low over Miami.... Just a little to far south for us. CMC could be interesting.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, a better trend, but this run is at most just NC and SC. Low around Miami.
Storm5
Member
Much improved huge step towards the euro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Huge jump in one run. 6Z had it south of Cuba.
Stormsfury
Member
GFS trended better but not there yet. Looks like a little better wave separation and maybe a start to some more separation.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah this run doesn't get it done, but the key is it was a very positive trend.
9
93Storm
Guest
Not yet, but it will be very soon.
SnowNiner
Member
Agreed. I really think we're asking too much of this canadian energy. This northern stream is just too much, and the ridge is just not amplified enough. Basically it literally is too cold to snow in the SE in this pattern. I know if, and amplifies, and phases, and all these options are on the table, but just all seems very unlikely.
I think we need to wait until the PV moves out so we can get the storm track to shift NW some....yes we run the risk of having marginal temps, but this cold is the story.
CMC out to 150... not updating on TT for some reason
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
CMC out to 150... not updating on TT for some reason
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So a Larry special...if I'm right that might be even further south than the 0z. I'm slowly learning how to use that website so I'll see if I can compare...
Edit: Maybe not.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Imagine if that bloomed sooner.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think we're all seeing why we want the Euro to show a storm first and the GFS to follow. It rarely works out the other way around.
Storm5
Member
Cmc looks looks better than the gfs
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Storm5
Member
Cmc
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Storm5
Member
Cmc is late as well
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So 0 for 2 now? This hope and a prayer in a northwest flow sucks.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yes the CMC was better but I think it's a trend south from 0z if I remember correctly.