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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Storm5 said:
About to get a little boost from this guy
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Looks like someone should shout PREPARE FOR GLORY!
 
Lol this s/w is still embedded entirely in the northern stream, it needs to cut-off and get separation for a while or else it's cold and dry yet again with these shortwaves diving out of the Pacific NW and northern Rockies
 
Yeah this might not get it done in this run specifically but it's a clear step towards the CMC and Euro with the wave.
 
Someone else has the Euro h5 map I'm sure but compared to CMC....hmm
Getting there
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The vortex momentarily lifted out, so that's a huge plus it has a chance and better take the small window of opportunity while we have it because here comes another beastly northern stream wave to reinforce the vortex and squash it unless our s/w is in an optimal juxtaposition for a phase
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GFS trended better but not there yet. Looks like a little better wave separation and maybe a start to some more separation.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol this s/w is still embedded entirely in the northern stream, it needs to cut-off and get separation for a while or else it's cold and dry yet again with these shortwaves diving out of the Pacific NW and northern Rockies
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Agreed. I really think we're asking too much of this canadian energy. This northern stream is just too much, and the ridge is just not amplified enough. Basically it literally is too cold to snow in the SE in this pattern. I know if, and amplifies, and phases, and all these options are on the table, but just all seems very unlikely.

I think we need to wait until the PV moves out so we can get the storm track to shift NW some....yes we run the risk of having marginal temps, but this cold is the story.
 
metwannabe said:
CMC out to 150... not updating on TT for some reason
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So a Larry special...if I'm right that might be even further south than the 0z. I'm slowly learning how to use that website so I'll see if I can compare...

Edit: Maybe not.
 
I think we're all seeing why we want the Euro to show a storm first and the GFS to follow. It rarely works out the other way around.
 
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