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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Baby steps
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Lol I don't wanna hype this up at all or anything but this look at day 5 on the GFS kinda looks like the Jan 2000 crusher but there are a few massive caveats
ForsythSnow said:
Imagine if that bloomed sooner.
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The overall z500 near the east coast isn't that dissimilar from the January 2000 event however a few minor details mean the difference between nothing and a monster. Namely, this s/w in the southern stream cutting off sooner & amplifying more and the northern stream slowing down just a tick, that's really the difference here. Certainly hard to get big coastal lows in the right place w/o much greenland blocking, sure overrunning events are easy to come by in a pattern like this (relatively speaking haha), but w/o a -NAO, it's pretty difficult to get a monstrous Miller A.
 
Am I missing something here? Euro showed a hit, CMC yes further south but still a storm and the GFS just took steps towards the euro....why so negative? At least wait until dr. no speaks before losing hope. Dang I thought there were good trends, reading this thread at times can be hazardous to your health lol

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Webberweather53 said:
Lol I don't wanna hype this up at all or anything but this look at day 5 on the GFS kinda looks like the


The overall z500 near the east coast isn't that dissimilar from the January 2000 event however a few minor details mean the difference between nothing and a monster. Namely, this s/w in the southern stream cutting off sooner & amplifying more and the northern stream slowing down just a tick, that's really the difference here. Certainly hard to get big coastal lows in the right place w/o much greenland blocking, sure overrunning events are easy to come by in a pattern like this (relatively speaking haha), but w/o a -NAO, it's pretty difficult to get a monstrous Miller A.
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The biggest surprise ever. Man that was a great storm.
 
metwannabe said:
Am I missing something here? Euro showed a hit, CMC yes further south but still a storm and the GFS just took steps towards the euro....why so negative? At least wait until dr. no speaks before losing hope. Dang I thought there were good trends, reading this thread at times can be hazardous to your health lol

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Yeah, the GFS has been showing storms and the Euro hasn't, and the Euro has been right. I guess this time if the Euro is wrong and the GFS is right we just say they all suck.
 
If the Euro is a hit, even if it misses the western portion of the southeast, that'll make it 4 for the last 4 there.
 
Stormsfury said:
Problem is wx.graphics just went into weathermodels mode and subscription based service :(
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I just noticed, wow that sucks...understandable I guess considering the cost to get Euro maps but still. And right in the middle of a possible Winter threat, ok from a marketing stand point that was smart.

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We can still get really large coastal lows in a pattern like this but they've historically ended up getting shoved well offshore and implicating coastal areas of the southeast (December 1989, February 1973, etc.) without really turning up the coast, granted I'm sure few would complain about another Feb 1973 storm...
 
metwannabe said:
Am I missing something here? Euro showed a hit, CMC yes further south but still a storm and the GFS just took steps towards the euro....why so negative? At least wait until dr. no speaks before losing hope. Dang I thought there were good trends, reading this thread at times can be hazardous to your health lol

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Lol even then why would anyone lose hope over a day six threat ?? Lol we’ve seen the models not get anything right past day 3
 
Webberweather53 said:
We can still get really large coastal lows in a pattern like this but they've historically ended up getting shoved well offshore and implicating coastal areas of the southeast (December 1989, February 1973, etc.) without really turning up the coast, granted I'm sure few would complain about another Feb 1973 storm...
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I definitely wouldn't

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Lack of -NAO here along with over strong SE Canadian vortex may hurt here, but you can not deny the potential when you have a 1050+ high in near ideal spot and energy rounding the base of the trough. This is the closest 500 maps we can get to what New England sees prior to their big nor’easters. I a.m. intrigued.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol even then why would anyone lose hope over a day six threat ?? Lol we’ve seen the models not get anything right past day 3
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I agree, get hopes up or lose hope crazy this far out lol. but if you just read some of the comments on here and didn't look a the maps you would've thought the trends were horrible

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metwannabe said:
I agree, get hopes up or lose hope crazy this far out lol. but if you just read some of the comments on here and didn't look a the maps you would've thought the trends were horrible

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Exactly. I’ve already surpassed my average annual snowfall, I’m on house money for the next 2.5 months.
 
metwannabe said:
I agree, get hopes up or lose hope crazy this far out lol. but if you just read some of the comments on here and didn't look a the maps you would've thought the trends were horrible

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I think a lot of our more southwestern friends are bummed by the idea of a late bloomer, while us in the Carolinas like the look
 
Here is 12Z UKmet 500mb heights...even though don't have the vorticity mlmaps this far out or precip but little slower than GFS. Compared to GFS and GGEM same time frame.
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Cary_Snow95 said:
I think a lot of our more southwestern friends are bummed by the idea of a late bloomer, while us in the Carolinas like the look
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This a great look for a board wide event . Obviously the NW flow is too progressive at the moment and the energy has too much stream interaction therefore we get a late blooming look. We need the energy to separate more from the norther stream
 
Storm5 said:
This a great look for a board wide event . Obviously the NW flow is too progressive at the moment and the energy has too much stream interaction therefore we get a late blooming look. We need the energy to separate more from the norther stream
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Looking for either that energy to come in more to west or northern stream to pull to east which would also help push the H in NE out some right that would do the trick
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
I don't think that anyone in Georgia would regret even having a pseudo-repeat of this storm. My grandparents had just planted pine trees in their yard the summer before this storm and the snow was so high that it covered the fledgling trees.
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I dont think people in North GA would want another event like this.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I think a lot of our more southwestern friends are bummed by the idea of a late bloomer, while us in the Carolinas like the look
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Yeah I get it, I'm still waiting for a Winter storm so I'm more than ready for a late blooming ENC special

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RollTide18 said:
I definitely wouldn't

Wow, I remember this so well. Here in NW Fla they closed down the schools, pretty much closed down the entire city.of Pensacola. It was a mess, but beautiful. I was 13 so I was thrilled just to see flakes, but to see 2 inches on the ground was glorious. Would be great to see that again, but I will settle for a few flakes as always.
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FWIW, the 0z Euro EPS control has the system more north, off the SE US coast by 12z Wed. (12/3/17) Bringing moisture far north as the southern Appalachians.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
Do you realize just how rare such an event was for areas south of Macon? It snows every year in North Georgia and it does down this way twice a decade at the most.
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Oh lawd, I tried this with him and got shot down even based on far North Georgia. But the ending story with that is just because it might, it might not be a big event in the research I've done. Sometimes it's just snow showers.
 
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