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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Personally I think regardless of what happens, KATL will see at least 2 days at or below freezing for highs next week. That seems to be a hole in one. The snow eh. Fun times continue.


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whatalife said:
NYE/NYD system correct?
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No, after. NYE/NYD system isnt going to amount to anything really.

I think we should narrow the dates of this thread down to NYE/NYD and take anything after that to either a new thread or the January topic for now. JMO.
 
So far this winter it's been the GFS showing good storms and the Euro the first to say no. Now we have the opposite. We all know how the former storms the GFS showed turned out to be. Hope having the Euro lead the way gives us better results.
 
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So is that the second wave potential in the pacific on this frame?
 
Always love to see energy for a SE storm coming out of Canada! lol. There better be a big time western ridge pop right after that...
 
SnowNiner said:
Always love to see energy for a SE storm coming out of Canada! lol. There better be a big time western ridge pop right after that...
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Yeah if it's coming down the Idaho stovepipe we've got a chance and it's close

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The GFS has been trending in the wrong direction w/ the Pacific NW s/w at day 2-3 of late (which was related to our New Years threat). We should be more concerned about this next storm in early January getting suppressed into oblivion instead of trending NW on us at the last minute because as long as there's a big vortex over SE Canada and New England which refuses to move out of the way, you're not going to see a low pull into the Apps or interior northeast.
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I've only nominally researched storms over the past few years, but the Euro from last night reminded me of the 2/26/1914 storm. My area received a rather significant snowfall (roughly around five inches), but there was a sharp cutoff from about Tifton northwards with that storm. GaWx or someone else would probably know if the comparison was adequate.
 
It's good to at least see some potential on the map for next week, especially for the more southern regions of the forum. I look forward to Larry's and Stormsfury's input as they both have done admirable jobs in the past forecasting wintry weather for those of us in the less snow-prone region. Delta's and Webber's input from the professional side of things will be needed as well (1300m, too!). Even though a board-wide storm is preferable, let's see if this one turns out to be a deep South special! Would love to see Tony get several inches of sleet as well, although it looks like the cold push might keep a mix off the table. I truly appreciate all of the PBP on the model runs. There's definitely a lot of wisdom on this Board from both professionals and amateurs alike :) Let's see it today's model runs brings a broader consensus.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS has been trending in the wrong direction w/ the Pacific NW s/w at day 2-3 of late (which was related to our New Years threat). We should be more concerned about this next storm in early January getting suppressed into oblivion instead of trending NW on us at the last minute because as long as there's a big vortex over SE Canada and New England which refuses to move out of the way, you're not going to see a low pull into the Apps or interior northeast.
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I don't know which way it will miss me, either west or east all I know is I'm in the dagblasted bulls-eye yet again on a euro 6-7 day map....

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Webber is right, worry about extreme suppression on the storm after New Years with S. Ala., Southern Ga to SE NC/SC being the only ones to get wintry precip. Those North possibly and West of 95 ( even 50-100 miles East of 95) might see some token flakes
 
First time in several runs the s/w wasn't trending north/weaker on the GFS at day 2 in the Pacific NW, and yes out system at day 4 looks pretty decent over Montana, just would be nice if we got something to come into California instead of the Pacific NW and the Northern Rockies because unless we're in a highly amplified pattern we're going to keep getting dry, northwesterly flow with systems like this... Hopefully the gyre over SE Canada momentarily lifts and gives us at least a fighting chance
 
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