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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Looking like, for most in the SE; NYE/NYD is kaput based on NAM/GFS so far.

Edit: GFS says no. Euro/CMC vs GFS now for next wave.
 
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Yeah, I should have expected this was another no go event with the NYE/NY Day storm. Maybe I’ll be able to track a legit threat for the Mid-South again sometime.
 
Storm5 said:
00z euro control and eps . This is the one
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Another thing you don't see everyday, a continued ENE track despite bombing.


Edit: Looking through the members, it's all or nothing. Of the members that have the storm, most have a perfect track for most. Not one member cuts.
 
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Arcc said:
Another thing you don't see everyday, a continued ENE track despite bombing.


Edit: Looking through the members, it's all or nothing. Of the members that have the storm, most have a perfect track for most. Not one member cuts.
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Yeah its boom or bust no doubt
 
Need all boom today no bust as we got to break the cycle here, so today less interaction with northern stream and less suppression
 
Can’t remeber what model it was from, but I’m pretty sure I saw a high of 20 & low of 7 for the 1/4-1/6 timeframe for KATL.

Early Jan 2014 comes to mind.
 
1300m said:
CMC and even the Navgem are not far off at H5 from the Euro. The Euro is definitely not alone in it's depiction so between the EPS support and other guidance looking similar, I agree this is our shot.

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Well between you, ARCC and SD seemingly going all in I guess I’m all in
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Storm5 said:
Well between you, ARCC and SD seemingly going all in I guess I’m all in
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I was going to wait until at the 12z runs today before I went all in and I think there is enough model agreement at this time to say the system on the 3rd and 4th is our best chance of scoring next week.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Can’t remeber what model it was from, but I’m pretty sure I saw a high of 20 & low of 7 for the 1/4-1/6 timeframe for KATL.

Early Jan 2014 comes to mind.
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It was the Euro and is still showing it, but the NWS is going way warm with the GFS?? Who knows anymore..??
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I wake up and see the models are trolling us pretty hard this year so far. Euro is the troll de jueur What did we ever do to them?

I think the pattern has sufficiently showed its hand and I don't think an amped up system is likely in this northern stream dominated flow. Even if it does as a late bloomer in the Atlantic, that's usually too far east for folks west of 77. I'm paying attention of course but I'm highly doubtful that we see a storm. We'll see. Perhaps the pattern can relax just enough at the end...
 
Storm5 said:
Well between you, ARCC and SD seemingly going all in I guess I’m all in
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I refuse to go all-in, I'm still at the bottom of the cliff from diving after the storm That was supposed to be occurring today was such a debacle. Also I actually fear that this one does go boom, gets amped runs just Inland of the coast and I'm on the warm side of the fence. But I'm still cautiously optimistic especially with the antecedent cold air

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Just keep pushing it out...seems like we've been doing it for 2 weeks now. I'll jump on the train when it actually starts following time progression, locks in on a date, and keeps that time for 36+ hours.
 
Yeah I am not quite ready to buy this just yet. You just know that if this cold verifies, it will dry out or squash/shred most anything all the way down to Southern Florida. Get this within 72 hours and I will take notice. I could see southern areas of Ga or even SC getting some light accumulations
 
MichaelJ said:
Yeah I am not quite ready to buy this just yet. You just know that if this cold verifies, it will dry out or squash/shred most anything all the way down to Southern Florida. Get this within 72 hours and I will take notice. I could see southern areas of Ga or even SC getting some light accumulations
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The colds only chance of verifying is if the snow happens. The cold would be after the system.
 
Just to note something, the pattern next week showing up on the Euro, CMC and to an extent the GFS is a different look than this past week to NYD. This big threat may whiff off to our east, but I doubt it trends to where it gets shredded.

I sense confusion. Can we maybe get a thread split after the 12z suite to separate threats if needed?
 
Arcc said:
Just to note something, the pattern next week showing up on the Euro, CMC and to an extent the GFS is a different look than this past week to NYD. This big threat may whiff off to our east, but I doubt it trends to where it gets shredded.

I sense confusion. Can we maybe get a thread split after the 12z suite to separate threats if needed?
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I agree . Yeah this one won’t get shredded and like you said it’s either gonna be a hit or a miss . I think the boom potential far exceeds the bust . We know what a bust means but I think some people don’t really understand what a boom would mean in the setup . The thing that worries me other than a whiff is a really late bloomer which as of right now that’s the solution the ensembles seem to favor
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm beginning to think that the euro is too cold. It just doesn't seem reasonable unless there is something crazy.
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Here's some more crazy comparison. That would challenge what I have seen in my lifetime in addition to freeze everything.
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Meanwhile, the EPS is cooling even more. Looks like winter could be here a couple weeks. The range of temps is crazy. What it looks like to me is that the operational Euro is a t the bottom of the average of what the EPS has. I would expect it to adjust and even out to maybe 10 or so if we do get extreme cold. If not, then I expect the Euro to warm up to mid teens like the EPS has. The GFS I think could be way too warm. CMC is still nuts
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Will have to see what models say today for sure, but I still think, as of now, the shredder is the least likely option
 
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