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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

12z Nam still wants to paste the I-85 corridor thru Georgia with 1-2".

I'm still maintaining that the best shot of accumulations will be along & west of the river. Cold push just doesn't get close to 85.
 
WXinCanton said:
With barely a half inch?
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Actually it's not as bad as TT depicts. A good inch and a half across ATL.
snku_acc.us_se.png
 
Boom or Bust potential is basically at 10 factor on this system at this point with potentially increasing qpf but also change up on the Artic front timing and temps could be mostly rain and a quick passover of snow not good or quick rain to snow and really really good?
 
Looks good for my area, some of the short range models are starting follow the south trend from the gefs.
hrrr_asnow_seus_30.png
 
accu35 said:
Looks good for my area, some of the short range models are starting follow the south trend from the gefs.
hrrr_asnow_seus_30.png
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Maybe we are getting out of the NAM's wheelhouse with this sytem and into the short range models. Maybe they will continue were NAM left off yesterday. :rolleyes:
 
Storm5 said:
We get your damn point . Post your BS troll posts in the right thread or enjoy your time off


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Unfortunately, I think it's pretty obvious where this one is headed. Cold air chasing moisture rarely works out even in places where it is cold w/o a corresponding weak wave along the boundary to overrun the front and sling significant moisture back into the colder air or at least withhold drier air from quickly filtering in further to the SE. This one could sting for many unless we get a dramatic turn around late in the game because after this front things look very quiet thru the first half of February.
 
Let’s just wait until the event is over before we start declaring model victories and yelling bust. Models are trending in the wrong direction, but with every snow event in the south comes surprises, whether for better or for worse. Just last week, places in Alabama got a dusting of snow when zero models said it was going to happen.
 
malak05 said:
Well WRF looks good so far much colder starts as Snow as enters AL
ref1km_ptype.us_se.png
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Not to be a debbie downer here but the WRF models usually have a pretty bad cold bias... There have been several storms I've looked at them and they busted way too cold. I wouldn't put much stock in the WRF, NAM/RGEM blend is the best way to go inside 48 hours.
 
RollTide18 said:
Let’s just wait until the event is over before we start declaring model victories and yelling bust. Models are trending in the wrong direction, but with every snow event in the south comes surprises, whether for better or for worse. Just last week, places in Alabama got a dusting of snow when zero models said it was going to happen.
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If you notice, the gefs and members have been ticking south with each run. Even with the horrible 6z gfs OP run this morning, there were still a south shift with snow and some big members south as well. Not sure if this trend continues but it's looking like it ATM.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
SREF was actually better for Atlanta. Went up back above an inch average, even though the boom lowered.
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I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
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I agree with this 100 percent . 9/10 the SREFs will fail you


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Webberweather53 said:
I hate to pour salt on any wounds here but the SREF is usually on the wrong side of the distribution when it comes to winter storms, having them in your corner at this stage in the game against other modeling usually doesn't pan out well
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I've seen a few rare occasions where the SREF picked up on a trend that other models later picked up on but I agree it's definitely usually too high with the qpf most of the time... The 3km NAM and RGEM are a really good combo to use inside 48 hours.
 
Morristown just pushed a update out to all the Healthcare Professionals painting Chattanooga and surrounding areas with 2-3 inches. Snow starting time will be 4am. Rain or Mix at 1am Tuesday.
 
This is just a general curiosity question, but the HSV NWS is still holding on to our area seeing 2-2.5" and then I see some of the models here showing different. Just wondering what the NWS, Spann, Jason Simpson, etc. are basing their amounts on or seeing differently run to run that would make the amounts change so much given this system is around 12 hours or so from coming in? I would figure the models would show a little more consensus at this point and the mets would reflect that. I know it's tough to forecast given the cold air timing and what not but just curious as to why all the fluctuation in the models. Thanks
 
jaymackd3 said:
This is just a general curiosity question, but the HSV NWS is still holding on to our area seeing 2-2.5" and then I see some of the models here showing different. Just wondering what the NWS, Spann, Jason Simpson, etc. are basing their amounts on or seeing differently run to run that would make the amounts change so much given this system is around 12 hours or so from coming in? I would figure the models would show a little more consensus at this point and the mets would reflect that. I know it's tough to forecast given the cold air timing and what not but just curious as to why all the fluctuation in the models. Thanks
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Mostly the trends from yesterday runs before they started going down hill more than likely.
 
This might be banter....move if needed, but lets just step back for a moment and think about this......This winter has sucked!!! yes, NC storm in DEC...awesome amazing yay! but I think it honestly comes down to expectations. IF you EXPECT snow in the SE, outside of NC and the high country, your going to be let down 90% of the time. I DO think, that the I-20 corridor in MS and AL have the best shot at this system. Near hotlanta, I do think that snow is very possible, just bad time of the day on the arrival. Also, the pattern is about to flip back to awful, so lets just hope anyone and everyone can see some snow from this. Might be last shot, who knows....Honestly what a waste of a pattern, what a waste of a PV dropping into the lakes...the great freakin' lakes!! Where is the cold in the SE? It just looks awful, no good nights in the low to mid teens, and highs struggling to hit freezing. Hell back to the 50's and 60's later this week...ok, rant over...sorry y'all..
 
Also I'm watching models your watching models but lets keep in mind its about time to keep a look on your radar loops and SPC for real time verification they will lead to you to possible outcomes further down the road when comparing them this afternoon to models... here's to hoping that artic front and cold speeds down here in front for everyone

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
 
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