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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Tagat said:
What are the chances looking like to expanding the warning further south in the next 18 hours or so?
Click to expand...

If the models continue to look like they did yesterday I would assume there is a good chance, at least a row of counties


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Looking at the 12z HRRR looks like it may have edging a little more south with path and qpf looks pretty good perhaps a uptick from th 06z extended run
 
RGEM looks way warm. What sucks is it does pretty good with thermal profiles. Seems to be on its own, but can't be ruled out.

rgem_asnow_seus_47.png
 
For NC folks from the Rah NWS (official forecast, high end and low end potentials)

StormTotalSnowWeb.png



SnowAmt90Prcntl.png


Well low end amount is 0 no need to post pic of that Lol
 
FFC ramping down the accumulation expectations. My point forecast has me for less than a half inch. The trend is not our friend in NGA, especially ATL:

This is trending to lesser
snowfall amounts outside of the mountains than previous forecast
runs. The short wave, currently over the upper Mississippi Valley,
will deepen the eastern trough driving the short wave and cold front
into the southeast. The cold front will move into northwest GA late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. By 18Z Tuesday the front will be just
exiting the southeastern part of the CWA. A narrow band of moisture
will accompany the front with a rain/snow mix moving into northwest
GA tonight, spreading across all of north GA by day break Tuesday,
and rain spreading into much of central GA. The precipitation will
end rapidly from the west after 18Z Tuesday.
 
I hope everyone gets a good thumping tonight/tomorrow, because the medium to long range looks like poop for a while. Just glad we actually have something to track that's less than 24 hours away. I'd say today's 12z runs will be about it , and then the upstream radar/temp trends will become more of a focus. That said, looks pretty good over Missouri this morning.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
 
SREF down to 1.98 mean for snow in Dalton. High end down from 8 to around 3.5. You do expect the short-range models not to have such a huge spread as we get closer and SREF seems to always trend down unless the event plays out differently in "now-time", then it will play catch up.
 
I say Dead on Arrival because temps are up a bit at surface compared to 0z axis is slightly different we shall see if turns over already just rain throughout AL at 09z
 
What a interesting change-up the NAM shows?!?! It's a later transition to snow but it is beefy and dumps over portions of Central MS/AL
 
Storm5 said:
Previous runs had a member close to 5 that’s where it came from


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Click to expand...
I get that. I would have thought he would have checked it before he did his video. Even when I looked back at the 3z it was still right around 4 inches. I know he does these video real early so maybe the 3z SREF hadn't finished yet.
 
Dang you NAM!!!! This new look throws everything up in the air if it plays out because it's pretty unique compared to others pretty darn good hit for Central AL,MS, GA but man looks weird.... also if Temps are too warm on model but have that axis and real time comes in colder thats a smash job totals would be up by 2+ inches in areas.
 
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