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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_10.png
 
Changeover comes at just the peachiest time for Atlanta, if it were actually below freezing there, that would be a problem. In areas that are north (and northwest), it is in the 20s though, and mid 20s for some. I think that's enough to cause some issues.
 
GFS is seriously teasing us by keep popping a very weak SLP right off the far western FL panhandle.
 
RollTide18 said:
The surface looks better on the GFS but the snow maps continue to look worse, down this way of course ?
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Yeah I don't get, if you go college dupage, it shows more amounts that this map doesn't show. I'm going with short ranges right now
 
Stormlover said:
And the GFS continues on it's comeback!
View attachment 13685
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But look at the precip map I think the accumulation would be further east and south. I don’t know why it isn’t showing up on here. It might be a 33-34 degree snow and just showing up as accumulated snow.
 
DarkKnight said:
But look at the precip map I think the accumulation would be further east and south. I don’t know why it isn’t showing up on here. It might be a 33-34 degree snow and just showing up as accumulated snow.
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I agree, I believe there will be more amounts further east and south. Euro/Nam FV3 has no problem, but gfs has got me confused with that. I guess it's assuming it won't stick at 33 or 34 degree LoL!!
 
DarkKnight said:
But look at the precip map I think the accumulation would be further east and south. I don’t know why it isn’t showing up on here. It might be a 33-34 degree snow and just showing up as accumulated snow.
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That's what I was thinking because as it seems even down this way the precipitation looks drier than the previous run and I'm guessing that's what's causing the lighter amounts
 
Shawn said:
Man, that map is way over done for a lot of areas. I'm going to save this for the future. lol GA/Carolinas.. man idk.. that is a WIDE swath even to the West of 2-5 inches.. and 2-5 is a very broad number..
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They explain that. The snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia. Guidance is evening indicating some instability, which could lead to convective banding of snow. This could dump heavy snow amounts for isolated locations. It is too difficult to pinpoint where those bands may setup. That is almost a nowcasting scenario.
 
Stormlover said:
They explain that. The snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia. Guidance is evening indicating some instability, which could lead to convective banding of snow. This could dump heavy snow amounts for isolated locations. It is too difficult to pinpoint where those bands may setup. That is almost a nowcasting scenario.
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Sounds like to me. They are doing just clickbait. ??? I still think a 1-3 for many.
 
I've been told many times throughout my lifetime (more years than I care to mention), that its almost impossible to forecast where and how much snow will fall in the deep south whenever this type of event is headed our way. Some people who are forecast to get snow probably won't...and some people who aren't forecast to get snow will probably get a flurry or two. Everybody enjoy and don't be discouraged if it doesn't happen this time...plenty of time left this season. Thanks to all the knowledgeable people who give their insights during weather events here on this forum, it's very much appreciated by all of us less in the know.
 
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