Storm5
Member
Through 00z Wednesday . No doubt the ugliest run yet . It’s like watching a slow death
18z vs 00z
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18z vs 00z
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Stormlover
Member
it's about it melting and freezing..that's the worst road..get's like a skating rink
Watch the euro hold steady, if it does we gotta give some props to it for its consistency
Trough wise. At one time all the models had the big vortex sitting over MN with a large broad trough across the south, the Euro was really the first to keep the vortex well in Canada and also really sharpen the trough to it's south. The other models are slowly correcting to the sharper trough and probably the low pressure wave next.
Of course I say that and now watch the Euro spit in my face.
I will be be very surprised if the Euro doesn’t come in with some really light shades of grey at 00z. It’s just not time for it to go *poof* completely yet. That will most likely come late Sunday night imo. Arctic fronts are just a really tough way to get snow. You would think they could update the frontal algorithm to make it a little more realistic in the long range
WarEagle22
Member
Me too lol. Wouldn't that be nice? Just hoping for something. I mean, the more the merrier, but at least something.
Through 00z Wednesday . No doubt the ugliest run yet . It’s like watching a slow death
18z vs 00z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I don't know. To be honest looks like that all are matching up closer to the Euro and some of the esembles. I mentioned earlier when Kylo posted the 18z Euro Control that I expected a shaft zone if a small wave forms. Look at the FV3 and GFS tonight. The FV3 also continues to trend more separation. If this trend continues, it wouldn't surprise me to also see the two precip maximums and the minimum show even more. Can't say I don't like where I sit at the moment.
Attachments
I mentioned about the NAM having that same exact sharper trof, helps enhance precip
Euro is going to stay the course I believe. 
Snowflowxxl
Member
That looks worse than 12z, much lighter it appears.
The interesting part will be does it keep the surface wave.
Come on EURO
SE TN is hurting
SE TN is hurting
Appears to hold serve
Nice
Snowflowxxl
Member
Maybe a little less, but would agree looks pretty similar. Temps maybe a little warmer in GA.
EURO MIGHT BE A TAD BIT SLOWER??
RollTide18
Member
Does I t looks like it tried to develop a surface low to you ??
Solid 2-4 inch event according to Euro. All hail the KING
Is that a coastal wave that tries to develop off Nc/sc ? No wonder there so much more precip east of the apps
ALL Hail King EURO
Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta right on the border of an inch and nothing. Based on what ive seen so far I think a dusting is the most likely outcome.
Looks to me king has held serve. So now I wonder who we believe?? The king or gfs???
Im riding with king EURO
But if i cliff jump, so be it
Southeast TN needs this
But if i cliff jump, so be it
Southeast TN needs this
Lol easy the king, gfs has been trending towards the king at H5
So folks in TN, MS, and AL either get a dusting to an inch at most, per the GFS, or widespread 2-4 inches. We've got a few more rounds of these runs before we can have a clear idea where this is headed.
As always. More questions
And little answers *roll eyes*
And little answers *roll eyes*
Memphis get shafted in qpf on this run .. about the same in the rest of the areas if not a little better
New run
old run 12z
New run
old run 12z
If it did, it's very broad. That said, it did off the Carolinas.
RollTide18
Member
That’s very close to a boardwide hit.
Ironic how these kuchera maps are better on snowfall accumulations here than the 10:1 ratio maps. I thought it would be the opposite.
Just FWIW, modeled accumulations stay about the same, yet QPF drops. That tells me cold air filtered in just a little faster this run. That is something to watch as we get closer and we clearly have a QPF increase down south. That is highly interesting as well.
Euro is way better for the Carolinas, I think we hug, but fr that weak low pressure that develops off the coast helped us out on that run
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Moisture looks fine here, but it's just gonna come down to the timing of the deeper cold air(pretty much for everyone east/southeast of the Southern Apps). Euro says I get almost 2 inches of snowfall(I'm sure a lot of this is probably being mixed with rain). Other models are meh. We'll see what tomorrow brings in terms of solutions. Still plenty of time for this to go one way or another.
Tomorrow, I personally want to see a trend towards a more progressive front.
Tomorrow, I personally want to see a trend towards a more progressive front.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Something also to monitor, the snow would begin right as rush our traffic starts in Atlanta. Factor in an Arctic front brining in the freezer behind it, and you have issues.