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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

BMX AFD
.SHORT TERM...
Through Tuesday afternoon.

Only minor changes were made to the snow amounts and changeover
timing for Tuesday morning. Rain is still expected to change to
snow beginning as early as midnight in the Northwest. The band of
precipitation and changeover zone will move southeastward through
the morning, and forecast soundings indicate the potential for
bursts of heavy snow as the changeover occurs. Models have come
into better agreement and are honing in on a corridor of
accumulations in alignment with our forecasts over the past couple
of days. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued across the
northern part of our area where impacts are expected to be
greatest. This is where temperatures are most likely to drop into
the mid to upper 20s near the back edge of the snow band,
resulting in potentially dangerous travel conditions. In the
warning area, snowfall amounts may average around 2 inches with
locally higher amounts possible.

Within the Winter Weather Advisory area, temperatures may only
fall into the 30-34F range, and snowfall totals are likely to
remain below 2 inches. However, a quick burst of heavy snowfall is
possible anywhere in the advisory area which could lead to
difficult travel conditions. Some of the advisory area could be
upgraded to a warning if confidence increases in colder
temperatures and/or higher snowfall amounts.
 
Here is the graphic from 33/40 showing the winter storm warning
02cc9445b84fe04668c8639fbb91b8a2.jpg



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Latest SREFs are down a little pretty much across the board
I sense this is going to bust totals falling now models not looking good either we need this to slow down

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Just woke up to this from the Jackson MS office:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson MS 351 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... .A strong cold front will combine with a weather disturbance to bring wintry precipitation to the region tonight into Tuesday morning. There is increasing confidence that accumulating snowfall will occur as temperatures fall rapidly behind the cold front. With temperatures falling below freezing, icing of roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will be a concern throughout the morning hours. In addition, strong wind will combine with the low temperatures to make for very low wind chill readings. Stay tuned for updates on this developing winter weather situation. MSZ030>033-036>039-042>052-281800- /O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0001.190129T0600Z-190129T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0001.190129T0600Z-190129T1500Z/ Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee- Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott- Newton-Lauderdale- Including the cities of West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian 351 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 2 inches are expected. Wind chills in the teens. * WHERE...Clay, Lowndes, Choctaw, Oktibbeha, Holmes, Attala, Winston, Noxubee, Yazoo, Madison, Leake, Neshoba, Kemper, Warren, Hinds, Rankin, Scott, Newton, and Lauderdale counties in Mississippi. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.



I plan to drive up to Jackson, MS this evening to visit family and see the storm up close.

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