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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Tagat said:
What are the chances looking like to expanding the warning further south in the next 18 hours or so?
Click to expand...

If the models continue to look like they did yesterday I would assume there is a good chance, at least a row of counties


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Looking at the 12z HRRR looks like it may have edging a little more south with path and qpf looks pretty good perhaps a uptick from th 06z extended run
 
RGEM looks way warm. What sucks is it does pretty good with thermal profiles. Seems to be on its own, but can't be ruled out.

rgem_asnow_seus_47.png
 
For NC folks from the Rah NWS (official forecast, high end and low end potentials)

StormTotalSnowWeb.png



SnowAmt90Prcntl.png


Well low end amount is 0 no need to post pic of that Lol
 
FFC ramping down the accumulation expectations. My point forecast has me for less than a half inch. The trend is not our friend in NGA, especially ATL:

This is trending to lesser
snowfall amounts outside of the mountains than previous forecast
runs. The short wave, currently over the upper Mississippi Valley,
will deepen the eastern trough driving the short wave and cold front
into the southeast. The cold front will move into northwest GA late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. By 18Z Tuesday the front will be just
exiting the southeastern part of the CWA. A narrow band of moisture
will accompany the front with a rain/snow mix moving into northwest
GA tonight, spreading across all of north GA by day break Tuesday,
and rain spreading into much of central GA. The precipitation will
end rapidly from the west after 18Z Tuesday.
 
I hope everyone gets a good thumping tonight/tomorrow, because the medium to long range looks like poop for a while. Just glad we actually have something to track that's less than 24 hours away. I'd say today's 12z runs will be about it , and then the upstream radar/temp trends will become more of a focus. That said, looks pretty good over Missouri this morning.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
 
SREF down to 1.98 mean for snow in Dalton. High end down from 8 to around 3.5. You do expect the short-range models not to have such a huge spread as we get closer and SREF seems to always trend down unless the event plays out differently in "now-time", then it will play catch up.
 
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