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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
LOOKS DECENT AND NOTICE THE ZR IN SW MS.
SO TUESDAY BMX HAS THE HIGH TEMP OF 32° THE NAM HAS THE HIGH AS 53° TUE @ 00Z AND 47° AT 09Z. WHAT AM I MISSING???
SREF 03 RUN
ATLANTA
HSV
BMX ( SHELBY CO) AL
ATLANTA
HSV
BMX ( SHELBY CO) AL
cyclogent
Member
Here's the latest thinking from MRX.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today)...
A cold arctic air mass is heading our way, but first a very nice
January day is on tap across the region.
Strong low pressure was situated over central Iowa this morning,
with a cold front draped southwestward across the central plains and
a stationary boundary extending southeast through the Tennessee
Valley and the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile the arctic front was
just a little further north across Wyoming and South Dakota. The
aforementioned stationary boundary will surge back to the north as a
warm front today as the Iowa surface low moves east into Michigan.
This is all in response to strong energy diving south into a
persistent and broad upper trough that has been in place across the
eastern CONUS for the last couple of days. With the warm front to
our north and us sitting firmly in the warm sector of the
strengthening mid latitude cyclone, expect to see a very comfortable
January day. A well mixed low level atmosphere should result in
partly to mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the well into the
50s for much of the Tenn Valley with a few locations possibly
approaching 60 degrees this afternoon in the south.
The daytime hours today should be dry. Precipitation, cold air, and
all the wintry mess arrives in the long term period beginning later
tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)...
A challenging forecast for tonight and Tuesday. A deep upper
trough move into the Great Lakes with a series of jets increasing
the upward forcing over the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians. In response, an increasing low-level southwest jet
pulls moisture back northward into the area. There are fairly
significant disagreements in how much/fast this moisture gets
pulled north. The previous GFS and current ECMWF and NAM are in
decent agreement, but latest GFS run is drier. Plan on following
the trend with the models and SREF/GEFS plumes to decide snowfall
potential with this system.
The jet dynamics will enhance the frontogenetic forcing along a
strong arctic front which moves across the area between 06-12Z
Tuesday. Models show a sharp drop in temperatures with frontal
passage. The precipitation will begin as a mixture of rain/snow
then quickly transition to snow with a period of 3 to 4 hours of
decent snowfall. Will call for 2 to 3 inches over most locations,
except for the Smoky Mountains to southeast Monroe County with 3
to 6 inches are anticipated. Thus will upgrade watch to an
advisory, except warning for the Smokies.
Snow will end by late morning/early afternoon most locations with
sky gradual clearing from west to east.
For Wednesday, a true arctic front will usher in the coldest air
so far this season. A period of light snow is possible, especially
along and north of interstate 40. Dangerous wind chills are likely
for the higher elevations Tuesday night and especially Wednesday
night. Even the lower terrain will see very cold wind chills.
For Thursday, arctic high will build into the area producing dry
conditions but still cold.
For Thursday night and Friday, arctic airmass will quickly lose
it`s grip with more seasonal temperatures. There is a chance of
snow or snow/rain mixture for Friday as warmer air (isentropic
lift) produces lift over the area.
For next week, upper ridging becomes established with southerly
winds developing producing milder conditions. Southerly winds will
increase the isentropic lift produce a chance of rain showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 29 33 20 / 10 100 80 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 30 33 18 / 0 100 90 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 28 31 18 / 0 100 80 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 33 35 14 / 0 80 90 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Monroe.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3
PM CST/ Tuesday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Lee-
Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today)...
A cold arctic air mass is heading our way, but first a very nice
January day is on tap across the region.
Strong low pressure was situated over central Iowa this morning,
with a cold front draped southwestward across the central plains and
a stationary boundary extending southeast through the Tennessee
Valley and the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile the arctic front was
just a little further north across Wyoming and South Dakota. The
aforementioned stationary boundary will surge back to the north as a
warm front today as the Iowa surface low moves east into Michigan.
This is all in response to strong energy diving south into a
persistent and broad upper trough that has been in place across the
eastern CONUS for the last couple of days. With the warm front to
our north and us sitting firmly in the warm sector of the
strengthening mid latitude cyclone, expect to see a very comfortable
January day. A well mixed low level atmosphere should result in
partly to mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the well into the
50s for much of the Tenn Valley with a few locations possibly
approaching 60 degrees this afternoon in the south.
The daytime hours today should be dry. Precipitation, cold air, and
all the wintry mess arrives in the long term period beginning later
tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)...
A challenging forecast for tonight and Tuesday. A deep upper
trough move into the Great Lakes with a series of jets increasing
the upward forcing over the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians. In response, an increasing low-level southwest jet
pulls moisture back northward into the area. There are fairly
significant disagreements in how much/fast this moisture gets
pulled north. The previous GFS and current ECMWF and NAM are in
decent agreement, but latest GFS run is drier. Plan on following
the trend with the models and SREF/GEFS plumes to decide snowfall
potential with this system.
The jet dynamics will enhance the frontogenetic forcing along a
strong arctic front which moves across the area between 06-12Z
Tuesday. Models show a sharp drop in temperatures with frontal
passage. The precipitation will begin as a mixture of rain/snow
then quickly transition to snow with a period of 3 to 4 hours of
decent snowfall. Will call for 2 to 3 inches over most locations,
except for the Smoky Mountains to southeast Monroe County with 3
to 6 inches are anticipated. Thus will upgrade watch to an
advisory, except warning for the Smokies.
Snow will end by late morning/early afternoon most locations with
sky gradual clearing from west to east.
For Wednesday, a true arctic front will usher in the coldest air
so far this season. A period of light snow is possible, especially
along and north of interstate 40. Dangerous wind chills are likely
for the higher elevations Tuesday night and especially Wednesday
night. Even the lower terrain will see very cold wind chills.
For Thursday, arctic high will build into the area producing dry
conditions but still cold.
For Thursday night and Friday, arctic airmass will quickly lose
it`s grip with more seasonal temperatures. There is a chance of
snow or snow/rain mixture for Friday as warmer air (isentropic
lift) produces lift over the area.
For next week, upper ridging becomes established with southerly
winds developing producing milder conditions. Southerly winds will
increase the isentropic lift produce a chance of rain showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 29 33 20 / 10 100 80 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 30 33 18 / 0 100 90 0
Oak Ridge, TN 54 28 31 18 / 0 100 80 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 33 35 14 / 0 80 90 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Monroe.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3
PM CST/ Tuesday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Lee-
Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.
CHATTANOOGA
06Z GFS
cyclogent
Member
6z RGEM/RDPS.
Oh well, it was a cute tease while it lasted for this area.
Atlanta definitely got NAM'd for sure.
Atlanta definitely got NAM'd for sure.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
What are you talking about?!?!
Ever since the tease through Metro Atlanta on the 12z NAM/GFS runs yesterday, the models have been gradually reversing course with each consecutive run (between less QPF and a slower progression of the cold air)
Bear in mind too that it's a day time post-frontal event in a region that only averages 2" per year. The bust potential was always there.
I do still think areas in the Apppalachian region of N. AL and NW GA can do relatively well. It will all depend on when the trailing shortwave buckles from the gulf (which seems poised to happen earlier and earlier as the main shortwave in the Great Lakes trends weaker/south).
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