00z EPS looking good.
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Pattern January 21-24 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lots of big dogs in the individual members.
That may be the most ridiculous model image yet. A 5-7” mean across the Deep South at seven days out is absolutely nuts.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Really good QPF trends at different timestamps at 6-7 days
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Forevertothee
Member
Columbia NWS
An anomalously deep 500 mb trough (near the NAEFS climatological
minimum for this time of year) will dip into the north central US
late this weekend and early next week. A strong surface high will
filter arctic air into the central and eastern US. There is very
high confidence in temperatures well below normal. 90 percent of the
NBM members have high temperatures in the 40s or lower for Monday
through Wednesday. Mean temperatures have also been trending colder
for early next week. There are a growing number of ensemble members
showing precipitation over the Southeast from early to mid next
week. 50 to 70 percent of ECMWF members and 30 to 50 percent of GEFS
members record measurable precipitation. The synoptic setup of
abnormally cold air over the region and potential for moisture to
spread into the forecast area is a situation that will continue to
need monitoring. That said there is still a large spread in the
timing of any potential precip and amounts, or lack thereof. This
ultimately is keeping PoPs limited to slight chance for the end
of the long term since the confidence of precip at any given
period is low. Model guidance varies greatly in the track of a
low pressure system which may bring the Southeast some form of
wintry precip near the end of the long term.
An anomalously deep 500 mb trough (near the NAEFS climatological
minimum for this time of year) will dip into the north central US
late this weekend and early next week. A strong surface high will
filter arctic air into the central and eastern US. There is very
high confidence in temperatures well below normal. 90 percent of the
NBM members have high temperatures in the 40s or lower for Monday
through Wednesday. Mean temperatures have also been trending colder
for early next week. There are a growing number of ensemble members
showing precipitation over the Southeast from early to mid next
week. 50 to 70 percent of ECMWF members and 30 to 50 percent of GEFS
members record measurable precipitation. The synoptic setup of
abnormally cold air over the region and potential for moisture to
spread into the forecast area is a situation that will continue to
need monitoring. That said there is still a large spread in the
timing of any potential precip and amounts, or lack thereof. This
ultimately is keeping PoPs limited to slight chance for the end
of the long term since the confidence of precip at any given
period is low. Model guidance varies greatly in the track of a
low pressure system which may bring the Southeast some form of
wintry precip near the end of the long term.
Forevertothee
Member
GSP NWS
A secondary northern stream wave crosses the area Sunday which
pushes a weak low pressure center and secondary cold front across
the southeast. The guidance agrees on a precip changeover to snow
for the NC mountains but doesn`t agree on precip chances elsewhere.
Some are dry while others show enough moisture and forcing for a
brief period of precip. For now, have kept a small PoP over the NC
mountains with diminishing PoP elsewhere.
The guidance agrees on an arctic air mass moving into the area
Monday and Tuesday with temps dropping to around 20 degrees below
normal. The guidance shows some precip may move in during the day
Tuesday, but differs greatly on coverage and location. Have capped
any PoP at slight chance for now, as there is quite a bit of
uncertainty.
A secondary northern stream wave crosses the area Sunday which
pushes a weak low pressure center and secondary cold front across
the southeast. The guidance agrees on a precip changeover to snow
for the NC mountains but doesn`t agree on precip chances elsewhere.
Some are dry while others show enough moisture and forcing for a
brief period of precip. For now, have kept a small PoP over the NC
mountains with diminishing PoP elsewhere.
The guidance agrees on an arctic air mass moving into the area
Monday and Tuesday with temps dropping to around 20 degrees below
normal. The guidance shows some precip may move in during the day
Tuesday, but differs greatly on coverage and location. Have capped
any PoP at slight chance for now, as there is quite a bit of
uncertainty.
Forevertothee
Member
Peachtree City NWS (ATL)
oward the end of the week, the next system approaches. Rain is
expected to begin on Saturday morning and push off by Sunday
morning. Rainfall totals have come up some, with amounts ranging
from 1-2".
Sunday afternoon and into Monday will give us a chance to dry out,
but temps drops pretty substantially behind that system. Confidence
in a gulf low is growing as models are coming into agreement with
timing and formation. The system tries to push into southern GA on
Tuesday afternoon and given the cold air in place, at least some
kind of rain snow mix appears likely in the southern portions of our
CWA.
oward the end of the week, the next system approaches. Rain is
expected to begin on Saturday morning and push off by Sunday
morning. Rainfall totals have come up some, with amounts ranging
from 1-2".
Sunday afternoon and into Monday will give us a chance to dry out,
but temps drops pretty substantially behind that system. Confidence
in a gulf low is growing as models are coming into agreement with
timing and formation. The system tries to push into southern GA on
Tuesday afternoon and given the cold air in place, at least some
kind of rain snow mix appears likely in the southern portions of our
CWA.