Big time signal.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
wow
Member
No it'll be freeeeezing rain
If I had a nickel for how many times I had those 50-70% 1” snowfall yellows over my house 6 days before an event and ended up getting rained on..
Haha I feel you. Hopefully this time with temps not being as much or the problem they will be a little more useful
rburrel2
Member
If the 18z Euro AI makes a similar sized jump that 18z Euro just did, It's gonna be back to showing 1 inch of liquid in the Upstate.
wow
Member
Don't jinx mama sita please.
I am feeling better than the NW trend could continue here as long as our wave dropping into the NW continue to trend stronger.
That would definitely drop temps back close to 20. This might be one of the rare times that roads are completely covered before the grass.
Mahomeless
Member
Not yet, but soon enough
18z Euro
12z Euro
12z Euro
Not robbing the deep south of its snow but expanding the precip field further and further north.
packfan98
Moderator
18z Euro AI looks a little better with the precip shield. Tick, Tick...
packfan98
Moderator
I noticed that it was 6-12 hours later. Wonder why? We need it early to keep more folks in the snow profile.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If I'm reading the Euro AI correctly, it's suggesting a 24 hour event now.
I'll need the better maps though to make head or tail of p-type though probably.
I'll need the better maps though to make head or tail of p-type though probably.
Hard to know until we see the H5 maps. You were right too btw, it was just a tick.
Not feeling it 77W very little precipitation back this way and a very dry air mass in place. I like how the precipitation field is correcting more NW. I guess we'll see. History tells me this a SE 85 storm.
12z vs 18z EC AI QPF:
iGRXY
Member
UK ensembles are drier this run. Less digging of the N/S.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
18z Euro AI 7pm Wednesday night I believe
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I hope so but back to back storms this way in my neck is very rare. As birdman says the sky's need time to heal
Plus I've studied the NC State winter storm data base to a T. Most of the time if it snows NW85 the next storm hits south.iGRXY
Member
Even if the precipitation shield shifts Northwest we have a very dry air mass in place whatever it shows you can cut those totals in half at least.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
But on the contrary the ratios are going to be so high, it won’t take much to pile up.
I hope you're right but after studying the North Carolina State winter storm database history is not on our side I promise. I know history has nothing to do with model runs and were in a completely different climate now but it is a piece of the puzzle in my opinion.
QPF yes, but ratios being so high you can still get some good accums
chapelhillwx
Member
Models account for this already, I’m not sure why this myth is always repeated
Hey man I work on Beech mountain I'm good I'm rooting hard for you guys.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Latest GFS graphcast sizeable leap NW with precip shield
Wanna share with the group.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Previous run the 0.5 qpf line was just west of I-95. This run it’s just west of I-85
SimeonNC
Member
I'm pretty excited about this for the CLT area, especially for ppl like @Chazwin and @broken025. We won't see the big totals most likely but a good couple inches seems pretty possible imo
Oh my 
Even the ensembles favor SE of 85. There's only a very few that show a decent hit for the foothills. The mountains are another story. I'd like to see multi model support for the foothills.
Likelihood of moderate impacts from WPC. Looks like they’ve ticked north a bit 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The mountain snow totals are from Saturday/Sunday this weekend. If mtns are seeing snow from the Tues/Wednesday event, the foothills will be golden.
GFS-GraphCast 12z snowfall and freezing rain..
