Shaggy
Member
This is Wilmingtons AFD. Conventional wisdom says if these temps are relaized the cold press should be strong enough to prevent too much NW trending?
Details: No big changes with the latest update as there is still
significant uncertainty regarding a potential coastal storm which
could bring wintry precipitation mid week. We are more confidence in
the very cold temperatures which could be much below normal and even
close to record territory, although the records are quite varied
during this period. It`s possible that low temps could be even lower
than forecast (into the single digits) as MOS guidance is typically
not as representative in such an abnormal pattern. We also want to
point out that some areas, especially inland, could see temps at or
below freezing for an extended period (on the order of days) so
proper winter safety precautions should strongly be considered prior
to early next week. Cold Weather Advisories are possible as early as
Sun night well inland but more likely everywhere much of the time
from Mon night through Wednesday morning. We could even see
conditions near Extreme Cold Warning criteria for some inland areas,
especially Tue night.
Although the 12Z GFS/ECMWF model runs don`t show much precip over SE
NC/NE SC, some of their ensemble members still do and thus we are
keeping mainly low precip chances in the forecast. Of course, with
such cold temps expected to be in place, the risk for wintry precip
is higher than normal. Snow should generally be the dominant precip
type, but some mixture of wintry weather types (snow, sleet and/or
freezing rain) cannot be ruled out depending on the track of any low
pressure system and how much warm air moves in above the surface.
&&
Details: No big changes with the latest update as there is still
significant uncertainty regarding a potential coastal storm which
could bring wintry precipitation mid week. We are more confidence in
the very cold temperatures which could be much below normal and even
close to record territory, although the records are quite varied
during this period. It`s possible that low temps could be even lower
than forecast (into the single digits) as MOS guidance is typically
not as representative in such an abnormal pattern. We also want to
point out that some areas, especially inland, could see temps at or
below freezing for an extended period (on the order of days) so
proper winter safety precautions should strongly be considered prior
to early next week. Cold Weather Advisories are possible as early as
Sun night well inland but more likely everywhere much of the time
from Mon night through Wednesday morning. We could even see
conditions near Extreme Cold Warning criteria for some inland areas,
especially Tue night.
Although the 12Z GFS/ECMWF model runs don`t show much precip over SE
NC/NE SC, some of their ensemble members still do and thus we are
keeping mainly low precip chances in the forecast. Of course, with
such cold temps expected to be in place, the risk for wintry precip
is higher than normal. Snow should generally be the dominant precip
type, but some mixture of wintry weather types (snow, sleet and/or
freezing rain) cannot be ruled out depending on the track of any low
pressure system and how much warm air moves in above the surface.
&&
