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Wintry January 21-23 2025

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UNCSC said:
People are cheering for this thing to pull NW too quick. As you can see with Boston this weekend, you absolutely do not want those big NW jumps to start until maybe couple days before. We all know you never want to be in the jackpot in the south 5 days away.
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These "ticks" or trends or small but more importantly in the right direction for most of us. At this rate it's gonna be Saturday 12z probably before the jackpot is up this way on the gfs. Which would be great. But it's the gfs so who knows what it's gonna do. The main thing right now is the ensembles show some jackpots and don't trend to suppression city.
 
Honestly last night might’ve been a bit of a saving grace to keep from trending too far NW too fast. We are about a tick away from being back in the 18z runs from yesterday with the GFS improving also as the far east outlier. Hopefully we can hold these trends going forward
 
Don't let that first massive NW jump in these gifs fool ya. It wasn't a huge NW jump more like we went from no system with overnight runs to back to a system. Now the 18z was a tick more NW but more subtle, many of us can work with this.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That would prob be a painful jan 3 2018 redux lol with snirga. This is more for meso time but wonder how we do with QPF on the Nw edges given this is a very dry airmass
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If I recall correctly, that was a major concern with the Late January 2022 storm in Raleigh. And it wound up being wetter than the globals showed.
 
Metwannabe said:
Don't let that first massive NW jump in these gifs fool ya. It wasn't a huge NW jump more like we went from no system with overnight runs to back to a system. Now the 18z was a tick more NW but more subtle, many of us can work with this.
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Bingo... Think of it as a correctional measure to come to the consensus.
 
This thing with a very few tweets could end up like Canadian. I know I keep saying that but it’s true although I figure Canadian will tone it down on north end but the great thing about it that if Canadian wins out it really wouldn’t cut many people out it would just add more people in. Not wishcasting just saying
 
Pops said:
This thing with a very few tweets could end up like Canadian. I know I keep saying that but it’s true although I figure Canadian will tone it down on north end but the great thing about it that if Canadian wins out it really wouldn’t cut many people out it would just add more people in. Not wishcasting just saying
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I agree with you but after seeing the models consistently showing the goods for the deep south i honestly gave up for us in the mid south. Yes the canadian have been consistently putting us in the game but in order to pull me back in i need both the gfs and euro to seriously show what the canadian been showing for these parts in the Tennessee valley.
 
I think by Saturday night we should have a good idea of which way this is going to go. Personally as strong as the tilt is with the jet coming out of the SW and gulf I think even as depreciated you probably see more expansive precip shield than what is depicted but getting this another 100-150 miles further north and west and we are cooking. That’s a minuscule jump when you’re 5-6 days away at this point.
 
Snowlover34 said:
I agree with you but after seeing the models consistently showing the goods for the deep south i honestly gave up for us in the mid south. Yes the canadian have been consistently putting us in the game but in order to pull me back in i need both the gfs and euro to seriously show what the canadian been showing for these parts in the Tennessee valley.
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You and the midsouth are not out of the game by a long shot. Ive seen these things trend to the northwest a many of times. 18z may have been the beginning of the trend but we will see.
 
Snowlover34 said:
I agree with you but after seeing the models consistently showing the goods for the deep south i honestly gave up for us in the mid south. Yes the canadian have been consistently putting us in the game but in order to pull me back in i need both the gfs and euro to seriously show what the canadian been showing for these parts in the Tennessee valley.
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I agree. Was just saying it wouldn’t take much at 500 cause this wouldn’t be a nw trend really more like a more sw to nw flow that would expand more overunning
 
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