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Wintry January 21-23 2025

John1122 said:
I'll add this, to get Florida/Gulf area winter storms, air masses imby have historically been sub-zero level cold (December 89 etc). The Euro trying to have record breaking snowfall in Florida while temperatures here are in the 20s seems like a bit of a stretch.
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This is a great point. That December’89 cold was one of the 3 biggest Arctic cold outbreaks for the southeast in my lifetime. Subzero lows extended into north Alabama and north Georgia. The NC Piedmont would have had widespread subzero cold had clouds not moved over from the coastal storm.
 
1300m said:
I think I largely agree with this. I don't think it's the key either. It may assist in what you're describing but it doesn't seem to be the main ingredient. I've got another theory that the baroclinic zone is sharper on the CMC thus inducing more intense overrunning early, which results in latent heat processes that result in a stronger surface low down the line.
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If this could be what's causing this,
What are the chances that the CMC is catching something the others aren't?
Is this something that the CMC is prone to see in advance or prone to over due this process?
Also is it something the other models are good or bad at seeing at this range with those conditions?

Tia
 
Ethan80963 said:
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This is really the issue we are facing here. There is going to be enough cold to give someone a storm but we really don't have any feel for where it will track with any confidence. Everybody is going to be pulling for different tracks for their own backyards and that is fine but we really don't know how this is going to end up. Everyone is pretty much snow starved except mid and upper south areas West of the mountains so everyone is due; even the areas that got some last week, as that was a very minor event for most. Lots of potential for lots of folks, or it may end up nothing for everyone. We all have to be patient and watch the trends. But even with trends, we have to be careful because sometimes it's a simple as "does this piece of energy connect with this other one or not" and that doesn't necessarily take a trend, it just takes timing.
 
Update from NWS RDU…
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Billypg70 said:
If this could be what's causing this,
What are the chances that the CMC is catching something the others aren't?
Is this something that the CMC is prone to see in advance or prone to over due this process?
Also is it something the other models are good or bad at seeing at this range with those conditions?

Tia
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It really goes back to something @Webberweather53 posted about. Is the usual cold bias of the CMC actually giving it an advantage here by more accurately depicting the intensity of the low-level cold air mass in the western U.S. and resultant enhancement of overrunning precipitation initially out west that then translates eastward?
 
Yeah the GFS at 87 is definitely noticeable west shift and ULL is further south and east so closer not quite CMC but better
 
As others have stated, incremental improvement on the 18z GFS. Similar to the Euro, it has the energy coming down through central WA in to UT, whereas the CMC and UK are more along the WA/OR Coast and CA, which gives a better chance of phasing in energy from the cutoff in the Pacific.
 
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