• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 21-23 2025

Hot take:

The little cut off low in the pacific has nothing to do with the evolution of our storm. The Icon/CMC are more juiced simply b/c they're digging further west and tilting better with the main trough. They're catching that tiny cut off as product of digging further West, but it is not pivotal/critical with respect to the moisture injection in to the system.

If you look at relative humidity maps, it's a nothing burger, and the CMC/ICON is already cranking before anything related to that tiny cut off even reaches the developed storm.

just my two cents.

I also noticed a couple days ago looking at individual ensemble members that the small cut off low being absorbed or not had no predictive value on "big dog or not" solutions.

Edit to add: I guess the little cut off getting absorbed could be acting to pull our main wave a tiny bit more west than it otherwise would, so in that sense it's maybe helping a tad.
 
rburrel2 said:
Hot take:

The little cut off low in the pacific has nothing to do with the evolution of our storm. The Icon/CMC are more juiced simply b/c they're digging further west and tilting better with the main trough. They're catching that tiny cut off as product of digging further West, but it is not pivotal/critical with respect to the moisture injection in to the system.

If you look at relative humidity maps, it's a nothing burger, and the CMC/ICON is already cranking before anything related to that tiny cut off even reaches the developed storm.

just my two cents.

I also noticed a couple days ago looking at individual ensemble members that the small cut off low being absorbed or not had no predictive value on "big dog or not" solutions.
Click to expand...
I think I largely agree with this. I don't think it's the key either. It may assist in what you're describing but it doesn't seem to be the main ingredient. I've got another theory that the baroclinic zone is sharper on the CMC thus inducing more intense overrunning early, which results in latent heat processes that result in a stronger surface low down the line.
 
rburrel2 said:
Hot take:

The little cut off low in the pacific has nothing to do with the evolution of our storm. The Icon/CMC are more juiced simply b/c they're digging further west and tilting better with the main trough. They're catching that tiny cut off as product of digging further West, but it is not pivotal/critical with respect to the moisture injection in to the system.

If you look at relative humidity maps, it's a nothing burger, and the CMC/ICON is already cranking before anything related to that tiny cut off even reaches the developed storm.

just my two cents.

I also noticed a couple days ago looking at individual ensemble members that the small cut off low being absorbed or not had no predictive value on "big dog or not" solutions.
Click to expand...
Just my opinion but think the problem is when that pacific cutoff low is west it pumps heights a hair and causes our western ridge to bubble inward and we lose our digging mechanism. Pulling that cutoff into the main trough or at least kissing it eliminates that problem and gives us a chance for a big boom like the CMC is showing. Can we still eek something out without that happening? Maybe
 
1300m said:
I think I largely agree with this. I don't think it's the key either. It may assist in what you're describing but it doesn't seem to be the main ingredient. I've got another theory that the baroclinic zone is sharper on the CMC thus inducing more intense overrunning early, which results in latent heat processes that result in a stronger surface low down the line.
Click to expand...
I feel like there should be concern that the CMC’s sharper baroclinic zone is overdone due to its tendency to be way cold, right?
 
Chattownsnow said:
The weenie in my honestly doesn’t know whether to be excited be being in a good zone for a north trend or bummed that south of me will likely get snow while I’m bone dry. I don’t want to get hit and sacrifice the Deep South though. It’s usually feast or famine with snow in these parts
Click to expand...
im near Huntsville. This doesn’t feel too good for those of us up here. Well probably only see a dusting at best. That high is too freaking dry and we seemed to get robbed of moisture in these setups. Enjoy your storm Deep South.
 
RoddyPiper said:
A NW trend is absolutely possible, if not likely. The arctic airmass is going to moderate, it always does. Also, if the northern stream picks up the Baja SW, or even half of it, its going to amp the system. I'm telling you now, be prepared for some big shifts over the next 48 hours.
Click to expand...
Even if the airmass doesn’t moderate, you can still see a significant NW trend even within the final 36 hours. February 2010 and January 2014 are both good examples
 
This is hopium based and centered to those on the northwest cutoff... but the Euro AI has higher verification scores than other stuff... but that's related to predicting height fields. I haven't seen any info where it's suppose to be better at predicting precipitation.

This 5h map on the Euro AI looks like money to me, and maybe as good or better than the icon/cmc?!? I would think the moisture plume would be bigger than what it's currently advertising.

Screen Shot 2025-01-16 at 2.18.14 PM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
This is hopium based and centered to those on the northwest cutoff... but the Euro AI has higher verification scores than other stuff... but that's related to predicting height fields. I haven't seen any info where it's suppose to be better at predicting precipitation.

This 5h map on the Euro AI looks like money to me, and maybe as good or better than the icon/cmc?!? I would think the moisture plume would be bigger than what it's currently advertising.

View attachment 164236
Click to expand...

I thought it looked really good and probably not much difference in the op Euro and the AI. The AI locked onto last weeks event about this range and although it wasn't perfect I thought from day 5-6 it was steady and had the general track down.
 
rburrel2 said:
This is hopium based and centered to those on the northwest cutoff... but the Euro AI has higher verification scores than other stuff... but that's related to predicting height fields. I haven't seen any info where it's suppose to be better at predicting precipitation.

This 5h map on the Euro AI looks like money to me, and maybe as good or better than the icon/cmc?!? I would think the moisture plume would be bigger than what it's currently advertising.

View attachment 164236
Click to expand...
Is it possible the moisture plume on the AI is lower despite a better H5 depiction because the alternative would be so anomalous? I believe the AI model is better at the height fields because it senses what is most likely to happen based on past events but purposely shies away from depicting scenarios outside a certain deviation score. I could be wrong so mostly thinking out loud here.
 
1300m said:
Usually yes. With this air mass? It may have a chance.
Click to expand...
My next door neighbor who is a retired naval meteorologist said the same thing. I just talked to him about it an hour or so ago and he said that this absolutely the type of set up that the CMC could have the correct handle on cold. He reminded me that it nailed the January 1988 storm better than any other models at the time and that this is a similar look with how the airmass is pushing in.
 
BourbonLumberjack said:
Is it possible the moisture plume on the AI is lower despite a better H5 depiction because the alternative would be so anomalous? I believe the AI model is better at the height fields because it senses what is most likely to happen based on past events but purposely shies away from depicting scenarios outside a certain deviation score. I could be wrong so mostly thinking out loud here.
Click to expand...
Yea, I dunno.

But, honestly, considering how far and radically everything jumped at 12z from the previous 2 cycles... there's no point fixating on precip cut offs now I guess. In all likelihood we see another massive shift at 18z in one direction or another.
 
Chazwin said:
My next door neighbor who is a retired naval meteorologist said the same thing. I just talked to him about it an hour or so ago and he said that this absolutely the type of set up that the CMC could have the correct handle on cold. He reminded me that it nailed the January 1988 storm better than any other models at the time and that this is a similar look with how the airmass is pushing in.
Click to expand...
Yea. and i'm wondering if we get the typical stronger WAA trend in the short range... that is really going to go to town with precip generation b/c you're not only getting the WAA lift, but it's being also lifted over a very tight temperature gradient that's laid out West to East, so enhanced by isentropic lifting,(and I think that's something most models underdo).

But I'm no Met.. so this could just be hopium. Webber would probably have a better idea if this type of good bust is in play or not for this storm.
 
Personally I don’t see how anybody could look at the 12z runs and think this is leading to suppression. If anything it did the exact opposite. You had all the models and ensembles trend to more digging except the CMC and that’s only because it was clearly the furthest west to begin with.
 
I feel pretty good about this one for Charlotte. I've seen enough of the various model centers throwing out long-fetch SW flow into an anomalous cold dome in place with strong temperature gradient from the South into the Gulf, a recipe for good warm advection overrunning precipitation...with the SE in the right entrance region of a strengthening upper jet...and with the high res models likely to get a hold of this and add their pop and north tick to the precipitation. Hopefully many can cash in

floop-mogrepsgens-2025011612.500h_anom-mean.conus.gif

20250115191325-a953d5222044285e2ea2f6c8856f30a749ccf1ae2.png
 
1300m said:
I think I largely agree with this. I don't think it's the key either. It may assist in what you're describing but it doesn't seem to be the main ingredient. I've got another theory that the baroclinic zone is sharper on the CMC thus inducing more intense overrunning early, which results in latent heat processes that result in a stronger surface low down the line.
Click to expand...
If you get enough latent heat release in the developing low it can lead to an instant occlusion.
 
BourbonLumberjack said:
Is it possible the moisture plume on the AI is lower despite a better H5 depiction because the alternative would be so anomalous? I believe the AI model is better at the height fields because it senses what is most likely to happen based on past events but purposely shies away from depicting scenarios outside a certain deviation score. I could be wrong so mostly thinking out loud here.
Click to expand...
No, that's not exactly how these models work. I can explain later when I have more time
 
Well, we made it through the 12z models much better than I was expecting. @rburrel2 here's the CFS for your chart. It's on board!
snod-imp.conus.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top