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Wintry January 21-23 2025

NickyBGuarantee said:
If you don’t get any help from the Baja low you’re most likely looking at a northerly flow dominant system that remains suppressed and gives the beaches a wild once in a blue moon event which I’m sure they are quite due for.

You add the Baja low and now you have much more energy and moisture to work with and you get a CMC solution.

Still have to assume the GFS is out to lunch but it’s hard to believe the model is failing so badly inside 150 hours. Certainly not to be trusted going forward if it completely folds .. which it hasn’t yet..
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It's the gfs..its not hard to believe. I'm not saying the extreme cmc is right but the gfs can shift systems 1000 miles from one run to the next at this range and closer.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even during all the other model disagreement, the geps is shifting heavier QPF NW slowly but surely View attachment 164212
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The CMC ensemble has been really consistent in showing a gulf wave with varying degrees of amplification. The main takeaway is it’s showing quite a few hits for the SE US


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Makeitsnow said:
It's the gfs..its not hard to believe. I'm not saying the extreme cmc is right but the gfs can shift systems 1000 miles from one run to the next at this range and closer.
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Most models caved to the GFS solution for my snowstorm last week. Will that happen this time? PROBABLY not .. but every model is simply a tool not the final solution. Small changes in data put into each model can change their outcomes significantly.

I’d like to get more data on that Baja low .. once it gets close to the coast we should be sampling it much better.

Someone go throw a hurricane hunter out across the pacific!
 
weatherfide said:
It is likely you will have more precipitation on the northwest side, even if the low track stays the same. It will show up later.
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Yeah, I have been reading around here long enough that I remember that the tendency is that the precip fields out-preform to the north in these types of steups, I was just curious what was causing the Canadian to breakout back west into Texas. However, that side by side of Canuck and the Euro seems to show that location of the cutoff being a bit more south and east gets it pulled in a bit quicker which gives a little more tilt to things earlier as well and ramps things up back to the west. BTW, not trying to steal y'alls storm Eastern crew, just trying to get a little taste. lol. A little shot of this thing will go a long way with temps like this.
 
Philstorm91 said:
12z Euro keeps those of us near the Gulf Coast very much in play, joining back with the other models and leaving the GFS out in the cold.
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It’s been about 7 years so I’d say we’re due for one.

It could very easily jump north but it’s looking harder to imagine a scenario where we don’t deal with some wintry precip of some sort barring massive suppression.

What helps is that the cold press on the models hasn’t lessened, at least yet.
 
The baja (or SF) low needs to trend further to the SE on the EPS if we want the CMC solution. The euro and gfs have it positioned NW so our wave is not able to phase or pick up any of the baja. If we want the bigger storm on euro, it'd be nice to see that in future runs.
 
With the exceptional strength of the cold in place, I can't see the N/W trend in low placement to be a realistic outcome. There may be a more expansive precip shield to the NW but not sure it will help people W-S and North and west of there. Still time for some minor adjustments to occur but the folks in E NC and C-E SC and Ga look in pretty good shape here
 
1300m said:
Yes I think you're right, that seems to be the difference later in the run. CMC has it just a little further southeast where it can pull it in. It's really a minor difference overall.
View attachment 164210View attachment 164211
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Didn't we just have a storm where we talked about how the euro likes to hold back cutoffs like this? Or am I imagining that
 
Arcc said:
I think it’s just because snow depth is a garbage product. In 2017 it had me like an inch or two snow depth, I had 9-10”.
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most snow depth calculators in general are garbage products you're best just taking qpf north where you think the r/s line will be and giving it a 30% haircut
 
MichaelJ said:
With the exceptional strength of the cold in place, I can't see the N/W trend in low placement to be a realistic outcome. There may be a more expansive precip shield to the NW but not sure it will help people W-S and North and west of there. Still time for some minor adjustments to occur but the folks in E NC and C-E SC and Ga look in pretty good shape here
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A NW trend is absolutely possible, if not likely. The arctic airmass is going to moderate, it always does. Also, if the northern stream picks up the Baja SW, or even half of it, its going to amp the system. I'm telling you now, be prepared for some big shifts over the next 48 hours.
 
RoddyPiper said:
A NW trend is absolutely possible, if not likely. The arctic airmass is going to moderate, it always does. Also, if the northern stream picks up the Baja SW, or even half of it, its going to amp the system. I'm telling you now, be prepared for some big shifts over the next 48 hours.
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We don’t want the airmass to moderate. We want a stronger SW flow aloft.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Didn't we just have a storm where we talked about how the euro likes to hold back cutoffs like this? Or am I imagining that
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I'll confess, I've never been a big believer in model biases that extend beyond it's last update cycle. You're often dealing with changes in physics, resolution, data ingest, etc so I am always skeptical that a long-held bias exist. If it's something that's been happening repeatedly in the same season then it's absolutely a known bias at that point though. That said, I'm not sure the Euro has any current documented bias for doing this, but I could be wrong.
 
Ross said:
most snow depth calculators in general are garbage products you're best just taking qpf north where you think the r/s line will be and giving it a 30% haircut
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Appreciate the answer. Yeah. Just glancing around that Left me scratching my head.. Haven't been on Pivotal in a long time.

Anyway, here's the CMC ensembles mean. That'd a signal..

GhbqtszWkAAIo9_.thumb.png.6d250ca91c1c9a3e8a5be855f397cb1d.png
 
RoddyPiper said:
A NW trend is absolutely possible, if not likely. The arctic airmass is going to moderate, it always does. Also, if the northern stream picks up the Baja SW, or even half of it, its going to amp the system. I'm telling you now, be prepared for some big shifts over the next 48 hours.
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You are right. As I have been saying, the pressures that are modeled at the 7 day range never verify that high. Those 1060mb highs are very extreme. That's why you see the relaxation as you approach verification ... thus giving the NW trend. There are times when the pressures are under modeled, but that is the exception rather than the rule. We will know soon enough.
 
Stormsfury said:
Appreciate the answer. Yeah. Just glancing around that Left me scratching my head.. Haven't been on Pivotal in a long time.

Anyway, here's the CMC ensembles mean. That'd a signal..

View attachment 164227
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and let me be clear i don't think they're useless. I think they represent a nice proxy of frozen precipitation potential. The trends have value. I will pay attention to this mean for instance, which is useful. but i don't use them to figure out how much snow i'm getting unless it's a slam dunk that i'll be all snow like last friday for me, and plenty of products try to put calculations on what haircut to go with, like snowfall depth or kuchera, but i kind of see it as all slop
 
Current model recap for Upstate SC:

Major hits:
12z CMC - Significant snow accumulations
12z ICON - Significant snow accumulations
12z CMCE- 4+ inch snow mean

Light/moderate hits:
12z Ukmet: light accumulations, better to the south.
12z GEFS: 1.5-2.0 inch snow mean(not bad considering the Op)
12z EPS: 1 inch mean
12z JMA: looks like 2-4 inches of powder, more to the south
12z NAVGEM: light accumulations, better to the south.

Complete whiffs:
12z Euro- missed to the South, flurries to a dusting for southern upstate
12z GFS - missed way to the South, storm qpf shield off the coast

Old data(waiting for fresh runs):
00z Spire - missed to the South, some flurries
06z Euro AI - missed to the South, snow for the beaches
00z GFS graphcast - Major hit, significant snow accumulations
00z Euro graphcast - missed to the South, snow for beaches
 
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Ross said:
and let me be clear i don't think they're useless. I think they represent a nice proxy of frozen precipitation potential. The trends have value. I will pay attention to this mean for instance, which is useful. but i don't use them to figure out how much snow i'm getting unless it's a slam dunk that i'll be all snow like last friday for me, and plenty of products try to put calculations on what haircut to go with, like snowfall depth or kuchera, but i kind of see it as all slop
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It's like the higher end "depth" line represented the battleground of transitional modes of ice vs snow. I would say useful if one can't find a ZR/IP accumulated map.
 
Like every storm for the last 10 years, I've been on the southern fringe of the consensus forecasted snow accumulation maps, and i've had to anguish over being in that position, and it's brutal.

Now, here I finally sit on the northern edge of the guidance for a major winter storm, and the anxiety is just bad!

I know being on the northern edge of guidance 5 days out is typically money... I know that, but I also know nature finds a way to hurt me. I'll continue to be nervous for now. As should everyone else on the northern edge of things, imo.
 
rburrel2 said:
Like every storm for the last 10 years, I've been on the southern fringe of the consensus forecasted snow accumulation maps, and i've had to anguish over being in that position, and it's brutal.

Now, here I finally sit on the northern edge of the guidance for a major winter storm, and the anxiety is just bad!

I know being on the northern edge of guidance 5 days out is typically money... I know that, but I also know nature finds a way to hurt me. I'll continue to be nervous for now. As should everyone else on the northern edge of things, imo.
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Just be glad you don’t live in Northwest North Carolina this go around. Lol
 
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