lexxnchloe
Member
We may finally score a win in ILM with the GFS trending better.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
We may finally score a win in ILM with the GFS trending better.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
does the icon eps show Snow/ZR/IP totals?
SSGa
Member
You don't often get to say, "Chase to Savannah!"
NCSNOW
Member
oops my mistake. yes thats total period. heres what I meant to click. Greater than .1 24 hr period
Euro looks significantly improved at H5 
iGRXY
Member
Again with the speak in absolutes at day 6 is astonishing. For one that simply isn't correct regarding a NW shift. There is just small tweaks thhat have to happen to get the entire southeast involved here.
Wow the Euro is much improved at 111
WxWatcher
Member
I never thought I would have a better chance receiving snow here than when I lived in Charlotte.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Yea it looks like it will be taking some of the energy from out west in this run
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Euro is a coastal hit. Big improvement
NCSNOW
Member
Mahomeless
Member
...and those are 10:1 ratios.....NW 1/3 is looking at 16-20:1
Geez you just don't see this often. Not sure what got ingested in those 00z runs last night.
Pretty wild frame 
iGRXY
Member
Stormsfury
Member
She's looking like it's going to give it a try...
Gotta love that euro run. I imagine the eps will have some good members 
Euro is jumping around significantly with the NE/MA deal STILL 
Yeah. There’s a bit of a similarity there to the 1/28/2014 storm. I remember Brad P saying a day before that one that there wouldn’t be a NW shift because the cold air mass was just too strong and there ended up being significant snow back to the mountains. Right now we’re looking at a similar air mass to that one. Also, we all know from experience that these end up being much expansive on the NW side than what is shown at this time. I go to the map the WPC released this morning. Those guys know what they’re doing and have that map for a reason
In no way am I implying that the 12z CMC run was realistic, but the 12z CMC and 12z Euro are not far off at 102 hrs.
NCSNOW
Member
This looks like its Miller A type consensus, no over runner. Also tells me MBY needs to root for a hug the GOM track, not out in the Gulf. And/Or a deepening while riding through GOM coastline. Don't see it being able to turn its heading enough NE to ride up Carolina coast at an angle sharp enough to throw moisture back this way, unless it really deepened/ amped up coming out of GOM..
Snowflowxxl
Member
Might want to read the last page before this was posted
with that sw feature they are though. Not the large features
The CMC and EC aren’t even crazy different, but the CMC swallows up the ULL and that seemingly gives us better results
iGRXY
Member
Guys this nonsense has got to stop.
Jan88
Member
More 4 days out.probably more changes to come imo
History just tells you that’s a little far south. Doable but unlikely. Anyway @Rain Cold requested Atari maps so here’s one 
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Kuchera Maps, if used here, would've likely doubled in NC:
If you don’t get any help from the Baja low you’re most likely looking at a northerly flow dominant system that remains suppressed and gives the beaches a wild once in a blue moon event which I’m sure they are quite due for.
You add the Baja low and now you have much more energy and moisture to work with and you get a CMC solution.
Still have to assume the GFS is out to lunch but it’s hard to believe the model is failing so badly inside 150 hours. Certainly not to be trusted going forward if it completely folds .. which it hasn’t yet..
You add the Baja low and now you have much more energy and moisture to work with and you get a CMC solution.
Still have to assume the GFS is out to lunch but it’s hard to believe the model is failing so badly inside 150 hours. Certainly not to be trusted going forward if it completely folds .. which it hasn’t yet..
Sctvman
Member
Yep. When you’re dealing with a populace where the area shuts down when there is a FLAKE, let alone what may occur, you have to wait until 2-3 days out to get more than that
Yes I think you're right, that seems to be the difference later in the run. CMC has it just a little further southeast where it can pull it in. It's really a minor difference overall.
Brother you really gotta absorb information in here. The things you post are emotionally driven. Take time to take the valuable info in.
Charleston got smoked with a bomb cyclone 6-7 years ago.
Even during all the other model disagreement, the geps is shifting heavier QPF NW slowly but surely 
RollTide18
Member
And the 850 line is moving south, at least for the western areas
weather bubba
Member
The latest Euro run looks promising so far. It is much better than the 00Z run and now getting close to some of the other models as far as snow for a good portion of the Southeast. The forecast discussions at the NWS offices around the Southeast ought to make for some interesting reading when they are updated again.