Wintry January 21-23 2025

[RollTide18]

Holy moly! Not finished yet

I can’t remember a model ever showing double digit snow totals for my area, at least less than 150 hours out

Both ICON and CMC have showed that today, it may not verify here especially if the NW trend is real but that’s insane nonetheless.

 

[FallsLake]

And then the next morning we would have this:

 

[Ross]

cmc one of the most fearsome runs i've ever seen for this space under 150 hours

 

[bouncycorn]

View attachment 164155
I just can’t believe such a giant crash from the euro in a single run. It was hardly even trending poorly and then it just sh the bed

There were 1-2 really bad runs from last event too from ECMWF, around this leadtime.

 

[WeatherNC]

If we can get a snowpack some all time record lows are in play.

 

[bouncycorn]

Wonder if there was something sour in the 00z data assimilation. Saw a massive shift in just about all models on the 00z and 06z runs, now at 12z with new upper air obs am starting to see that completely reversed.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve never seen a setup where the placement of a Baja low was so uncertain and so bearing on what happens downstream. When you are in a southern stream dominant pattern they just enter baja and exit the same latitude. This is a mess.

 

[jrips27]

Choose your fighter sigh

 

[packfan98]

Considerable sleet and freezing rain totals too!

 

[Mahomeless]

Like I mentioned earlier, a little more amperage puts north AL back in the game, and the GEM didn't disappoint! Amped and more cold, with a slight SW to NE oriented flow is HUGE for us! @Storm5 ......where you at?

 

[iGRXY]

There were 1-2 really bad runs from last event too from ECMWF, around this leadtime.

I keep saying it, but the EURO is just a susceptible to volatility as any other model these days. This isn't the same King from 10 or 15 years ago. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but it definitely gets things more wrong and flips a lot more than it ever used to.

 

[CobraMedic]

Whoever is praying for snow, you need to dial it down a couple of notches. The Canadian would cripple the SouthEast.

 

[beanskip]

I can't express to you -- having been through both ice storms and hurricanes -- what anything close to that type of scenario would mean for south Georgia/north Florida. The tree damage would be beyond belief. It would be like a direct hit from a major hurricane, but with no ability to drive around (or even walk). The CMC verbatim shows about 1 inch of liquid in Tallahassee with temps in the mid-20s. Even colder in Valdosta/Thomasville and points north. Would be a total disaster.

 

[WxBlue]

The frontogenesis on the CMC is very similar to some of best snow rates I ever seen in the Northeast US back in 2018. Never thought I'd see 3"/hr this far south even with fantasy runs.

 

[malak05]

Whoever is praying for snow, you need to dial it down a couple of notches. The Canadian would cripple the SouthEast.

Indeed if all models fall in line to something like this over next 2-3 runs and hold serve this weekend you will see a huge red alert verbiage start slamming outwards across news and weather figures

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The thing with eastern areas towards the coast there are still 2 ways to win here. I’d feel pretty hopeful that way

 

[iGRXY]

Absolutely unheard of down here with the rates. 1" Hr rates are definitely something to behold but over 3" rates down in Orangeburg and Lake Marion is biblical stuff

 

[Chazwin]

CMC is playing for different stakes, over 2' in parts LA, SC and NC. Historic storm verbatim, and it never really phases the Baja energy if you look closely at H5, it's shunted east over northern MX which in the end still works out. Amazing what a + oriented trough can do scraping the GOM under a stout Arctic airmass.

This is why I wonder if we really want to even see that Baja energy get phased completely or even too much. I worry that if that happens this thing amps too much too early and were left with a huge ice storm.

 

[BKWRN29]

I am just an observer and know nothing about weather models but I thought many people mentioned the euro typically looses the storm in this time frame then it comes back??

 

[BullCityWx]

16:1 ratios in the mid teens. Oh yeah, it's below freezing for 48 hours before the event.

I couldnt draw it up better. Stunned.

 

[FallsLake]

Considerable sleet and freezing rain totals too!

And like the ICON, this would be a major ice storm for places that rarely ever see freezing rain. With temps being modeled in the mid 20s, those totals could be close to correct. Would be historic.

 

[jrips27]

The CMC ensembles should be totally normal, I’m sure 0z was already absurd

 

[Stormsfury]

The frontogenesis on the CMC is very similar to some of best snow rates I ever seen in the Northeast US back in 2018. Never thought I'd see 3"/hr this far south even with fantasy runs.

I would gather some elevated thunder occurs in this...

 

[iGRXY]

So far the UK looks lock step with 0Z with our vort coming down out of W Can

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

An amplified vs a suppressed solution seems to be contingent on how the "bundle" gets injected into the short wave coming down the rockies, if at all. A big part of how amplified of a solution were going to get is determined by if it gets pulled in or left behind.

 

[DopplerWx]

2/2, insane this agreement at 130hrs. We dream for times like this

 

[RTRwx]

View attachment 164172
So far the UK looks lock step with 0Z with our vort coming down out of W Can

That Vort looks a little stronger on the 12z but basically copy/paste on position.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Biblical totals 48 hours straight. What does the Canadian know? Anything?

 

[WxBlue]

Just for fun... sweet god, the fat omega right in the DGZ over Columbia, SC on the Canadian... that's a raging snow sounding right there.

 

[iGRXY]

I expect we get another good run here.

 

[buckinbronco]

Yep, UKMET trying to give it a go...

 

[iGRXY]

Hell the UK is further west and phasing earlier.

 

[NCSNOW]

Ukmet will deliver a Barn Burner here in a few: Put your seatbelts on

 

[packfan98]

FWIW, 12z GEFS looks drier and more suppressive at the surface than 6z.

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 164170Absolutely unheard of down here with the rates. 1" Hr rates are definitely something to behold but over 3" rates down in Orangeburg and Lake Marion is biblical stuff

Yeah that would really be amazing. Even northwest of there back towards CLT metro and the eastern SC upstate, that’s still 1-2” per hour rates with temperatures in the mid to upper teens. That would pure powder with any bit of wind producing drifts as well.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Brad starting to honk

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah the UK is going to deliver the goods here shortly. Only a matter of how much is ICE vs Snow

 

[NCWeatherGeek]

FWIW, 12z GEFS looks drier and more suppressive at the surface than 6z.

Didn't the GFS score decent on the last system?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

UKMET looks to have a lot less juice at around 111 hours out on pivotal vs the CMC

absolutely an absurd model difference at hour 120 from all these models.

Someone is truly going to win a coup here but no one’s budging? Something has to give but I think the biggest players are that Baja low and the storm out ahead that’s continuing to show a more strong solution for the NE

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s all going to come down to whether or not we get interaction with the cutoff. Even a little touch goes a long way. The crazy thing is we may not know for sure til Saturday if that’s going to happen or not with that cutoff out in the pacific floating between streams. This is wild