Wintry January 21-23 2025

[iGRXY]

Do any models like the icon/uk/cmc hold weight at all or do you basically need the euro on your side for the most likely outcome? I’m new to model watching but seems most people think every model is bad besides euro?

They hold weight when you have multiple look similar. The EURO and its ensembles have always held the most weight because for the longest time they were king in the day 4-7 range. My problem with them is while they are better than most they fall into just as much volatility as the others do these days. For example you generally would never see both of those completely flip in 1 model cycle like you did last night at this range say 10-15 years ago.

 

[FallsLake]

This could be one of the very rare events where you could see a major ice storm in Florida. Basically, from Tallahassee westward. This is courtesy of the very cold air mass that will be in place. I would love to see palm trees covered in ice.

Hr 138:

 

[BHS1975]

I was just curious always seems like majority are in agreement or relatively close and one outlier

You don't want the euro as the outlier unless it's showing what you want. It has been way off a few times before though.

 

[malak05]

They hold weight when you have multiple look similar. The EURO and its ensembles have always held the most weight because for the longest time they were king in the day 4-7 range. My problem with them is while they are better than most they fall into just as much volatility as the others do these days. For example you generally would never see both of those completely flip in 1 model cycle like you did last night at this range say 10-15 years ago.

That was a ridiculous flip in modeling by EURO standards correct. We have seen it shift over 2-3 runs in past but to have a completely different look run to run generally been a GFS thing and thats why its called the Goofy

 

[Mahomeless]

They hold weight when you have multiple look similar. The EURO and its ensembles have always held the most weight because for the longest time they were king in the day 4-7 range. My problem with them is while they are better than most they fall into just as much volatility as the others do these days. For example you generally would never see both of those completely flip in 1 model cycle like you did last night at this range say 10-15 years ago.

Even with an increase of data sampling as verification time nears? IMO, the fact that both the Op and Ens jumped ship on the same run tells me it either sampled something new, or, there was bad truncation (which is usually found pretty quickly and noted).

 

[SD]

Icon bringing the upper lows onshore around D4 is a good catalyst for many of us I haven't really seen anything else so it in recent days but it would erase all the bad trends of last night

 

[jackendrickwx]

This is up to the 6z gfs but it was prolly the closest of any recent run to the icon that just went. Vaguely close to grabbing that low over Cali. PAC ridge just doesn’t want to cooperate

 

[iGRXY]

That was a ridiculous flip in modeling by EURO standards correct. We have seen it shift over 2-3 runs in past but to have a completely different look run to run generally been a GFS thing and thats why its called the Goofy

Exactly. Don't get me wrong they are both better than the majority of models and absolutely head and shoulders better than the GFS/GEFS. Let's not kid ourselves here either. While the EURO/EPS went east last night, the GFS/GEFS is still like way out in left field vs even the EURO.

 

[malak05]

It's very early in the GFS run at Frame 54 it does look different with the northern energy its getting that westward tilt? Compared to last several runs

 

[CaryWx]

ICON is a Feb '73 event almost...which I experienced and remember well living in southeastern NC at the time

 

[CobraMedic]

I was just curious always seems like majority are in agreement or relatively close and one outlier

The big three seem to be Euro, GFS, and NAM. If you have all three showing the same thing, then odds are it is going to happen. But sometimes one of them will go rouge. Last system NAM had a little bit too much leftover Eggnog. It was the outlier.

With both EURO and GFS being outliers for this system, it is very concerning. We need some consensus.

 

[iGRXY]

Even with an increase of data sampling as verification time nears? IMO, the fact that both the Op and Ens jumped ship on the same run tells me it either sampled something new, or, there was bad truncation (which is usually found pretty quickly and noted).

There's not really any new model sample to take into account this far out though. The vorticity is still sitting out of the Pacific ocean right now. There's not some new sample that they could've inputted this far out, IMO. Which is why I think this is still a volatile situation for another 48 hours at least until you get that closer to Western Canada

 

[iGRXY]

It's early but you're potentially seeing the early indications of the Western Ridge getting stronger. Let's see if it continues

 

[Stormsfury]

This could be one of the very rare events where you could see a major ice storm in Florida. Basically, from Tallahassee westward. This is courtesy of the very cold air mass that will be in place. I would love to see palm trees covered in ice.

Hr 138:

View attachment 164119

Based on crude TT maps, Southern SC might be in for quite the sleet storm with temps in the mid 20s...

 

[iGRXY]

It's already inching further west this run out of Western Canada. Likely won't make a big difference but you also have to be realistic that this is likely going to be an inch by inch situation

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 164124
It's already inching further west this run out of Western Canada. Likely won't make a big difference but you also have to be realistic that this is likely going to be an inch by inch situation

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[jackendrickwx]

We are just barely crawling making that pac ridge slightly better over the last few runs on the gfs

 

[coldspringsfarm]

Icon has a pretty good look to it right now but I could totally be wrong.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that sticky note referring to Gods plan to give us 6" of snow?

 

[WxBlue]

Seems to be dragging the eastern Pac cut-off low more on this run.

 

[Stormsfury]

View attachment 164124
It's already inching further west this run out of Western Canada. Likely won't make a big difference but you also have to be realistic that this is likely going to be an inch by inch situation

The BAJA or in this case SAN Fran low is a tad slower and a couple hundred miles west of the ICON at hour 78.

 

[Chattownsnow]

Our S/W of interest is in a barren desert of data collection. Would be nice to have a plane go in and collect data on it. Besides I’m not so sure the Baja wave matters a whole lot in the grand scheme of things. You get the northern stream to dig SW more and the Baja wave is irrelevant. The +PNA orientation and large scale Synoptics are still the most important thing at this range. I just think you are just as likely to get a storm, with, or without the wave

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve never hated a 10 run trend as much as I hate this one

 

[jackendrickwx]

Ok that’s a little better

 

[ChattaVOL]

Our S/W of interest is in a barren desert of data collection. Would be nice to have a plane go in and collect data on it. Besides I’m not so sure the Baja wave matters a whole lot in the grand scheme of things. You get the northern stream to dig SW more and the Baja wave is irrelevant. The +PNA orientation and large scale Synoptics are still the most important thing at this range

How are you feeling for us?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jackendrickwx]

Looks relatively similar to 12z yesterday.

 

[Stormsfury]

I don't know. At least the northern stream out west sharpened back up..

 

[iGRXY]

GFS is already digging more and more to the west by the run. We will see what the EURO does but IMO it's already looking like it's starting the process of folding.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

GFS did make an improvement that little bundle of energy still is going to take some time to be figured out

 

[malak05]

GFS definitely took what I would consider a little bit more then a baby step toward other models so not shabby

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS did make an improvement that little bundle of energy still is going to take some time to be figured out

Yeah I’m a fan of that move at H5. Give me a few more of those and we can get a 12z icon outta the goof

 

[KyloG]

Look at how violent the GFS is moving NW from 36 hours ago for this Sun/Mon deal

 

[RBR71]

GFS not bringing any of the baja low with it but it is sharpening up the northern stream nicely, so this will probably still workout. Gotta think we still get a winter storm this week just by which means is yet tbd

 

[jackendrickwx]

Look at how violent the GFS is moving NW from 36 hours ago for this Sun/Mon deal

View attachment 164131

That’s what’s gonna be annoying about this one is we prolly have to keep watching it even if every model goes suppresso. We’ve seen em re-appear in NAM range

 

[DixieBlizzard]

As many alluded to, that stupid bundle of energy is moving NNW off the coast of Eureka now (Heading to 40N). Isn't that affecting the PAC ridging some?

 

[RBR71]

Nope, whiff but a big step in right direction I believe

 

[jackendrickwx]

lol.

 

[Stormsfury]

Lol WUT?!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[buckinbronco]

12z Canadian not digging quite as much vs its 0z run. But still looks like it could be a good run...

 

[Arcc]

The fact that the ICON shows that much precip yet is still cold is amazing.