Southern Track
Member
Yeah ok whatever...
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
If anything that ULL is pumping the -EPO more which I believe Fro pointed out before.
Huge differences made by missing that phase, which the gfs barely ticked toward making it happen this run. You’d like to find a way to get N/s and that low to be best buddies like the icon and cmc have been doing.
All I’m saying is those relatively small differences at like 100 hours make for huge ones at 138
RTRwx
Member
Looks like the Canadian is going to do something again.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Kinda funky look at h5 from the cmc but I think it’s still gonna make it work
Stormsfury
Member
iGRXY
Member
CMC is east but it was way further west than any model. It's much more in line with the ICON and also phases the ULLCary_Snow95
Member
CMC is trending to more northern stream involvement. Maybe we get a nice middle ground
iGRXY
Member
CMC should be a hit with less ice IMO. it's further east so not as amped but still digging nicely and consolidating the ULL.
iGRXY
Member
One is not like the others
packfan98
Moderator
Holy moly! Not finished yet
buckinbronco
Member
beanskip
Member
CMC even colder at the surface than 12z ICON (which is saying a lot!) through 132 hours.
iGRXY
Member
She holds
What a beautiful frame
Got away with it there but you just don’t want that to become the trend 
Southern Track
Member
Obvious statement, but would love to see the EURO jump on board, or at least trend to the ICON and CMC.
packfan98
Moderator
Makeitsnow
Member
Cmc with surface temps in the upper teens, 850s of -10 over ga and carolinas...lordy. 
beanskip
Member
My God the ice storm depicted in Fla. panhandle/South Georgia by the CMC is mindblowing. Pouring rain and 26F in Tallahassee? Insane.
Stormsfury
Member
CMC holds serve ... Ummm....
The FGEN is off the charts! (Thunder ... Anyone?)
The FGEN is off the charts! (Thunder ... Anyone?)
Man I want to get excited but the Euro says no! Ugh!
Cary_Snow95
Member
The cmc actually trended to a euro like solution. Wants to Miller A
Yes sir another massive hit on the CMC. ICON and CMC look good, GFS better but not there, looking to see Ukmet hold serve and Euro trend back, then it's game on all over again.
Don’t let this get buried under the pretty maps. Let’s not let this one continue
Canadian has 3 inch per hour rates in South Carolina 
CMC is playing for different stakes, over 2' in parts LA, SC and NC. Historic storm verbatim, and it never really phases the Baja energy if you look closely at H5, it's shunted east over northern MX which in the end still works out. Amazing what a + oriented trough can do scraping the GOM under a stout Arctic airmass.
iGRXY
Member
I know the CMC trended east with our vort but it needed to. It was by far the furthest west with it and aligns much closer with other guidance. It also stops the nonsense of a big ICE storm way up here
Cary_Snow95
Member
I think we’ve seen a large shift in the cmc at H5 but this change isn’t necessarily a bad one. It looks more like the 6z Euro with way more NS interaction. Goes to show the euro wasn’t far off the same scenario if it just had tilted in time
Greenland block trending stronger ==> shoves TPV further west ==> injects more into western wave leading to amplified, but colder solution.
I just can’t believe such a giant crash from the euro in a single run. It was hardly even trending poorly and then it just sh the bed
iGRXY
Member
TBH it needed to come east some. It was the furthest west with the vorticity. This at least aligns it much closer to the ICON and UK
packfan98
Moderator
Partly cloudy with 20% chance of precip. That's as specific as you would go in a forecast. Obviously, a discussion would warrant more info.
yeah I wish it wasn't CMC
Cary_Snow95
Member
If the Euro trends to the CMC/ICON, hold on.
One more like that and there’s probably no interaction. We’ve got global models giving us 2 feet of snow under 150hr out but I can’t even get excited. It’s sick. I miss the old Jimmy.