Hard to glean much from free GEFS H5 plots but looks like it did something similar to op and missed phase but is maybe just a hair better with digging the trough around Mon afternoon.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Operational or ensemble? Which run?
buckinbronco
Member
Probably won't be as good at CMC/ICON, but at least we know the UKMET is not in the GFS camp.
Stormsfury
Member
The GEM deepened the Sunday/Monday system to 994mb off the Mass Coast.
iGRXY
Member
iGRXY
Member
CMC is a biblical run, I wouldn't use that as the bench mark here. Just keep the storm signal out of the southern gulf and at least along and south of I20 right now
Another interesting thing about that Canadian run is the length of the cold air. It has me going below freezing around midnight Sunday night and stay below freezing right through the end of the run… obviously aided by the snowpack it puts down. It has a coldest high of 18 on Wednesday followed by a low of -4 on Thursday morning
Winter Storm Demigod here we come!
UKMET looks fine at H5
Tokenfreak
Member
Is that a graphic from the weather channel? Looks like something they would make.
Yep TWC.
iGRXY
Member
Exactly. As long as it kept digging the western vort we need to be happy
Possibly a delayed but not denied on the 12z UK, hard to tell, it is taking it's time bringing the energy east, I'm not sure if some will be left behind like we saw on EC runs over the past few days. At 132hrs.
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Think we're gonna hold serve looking at RH maps at 132 but we'll see.
Tokenfreak
Member
Figures! While I like it as I'm in the purple part I feel its very misleading especially at this point in time since we still don't have all the models on board or know exactly whats going to happen yet.
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. Pretty similar to the Canadian. Let's see if we can get a better consensus over the next 48 hours.
NCSNOW
Member
Identical to its 0Z . Almost copy an paste. What another hit!
buckinbronco
Member
Weaker, but it is technically a hit...
buckinbronco
Member
yeah anybody to the NW shouldn't worry about too much almost always ends up more on the NW quadrant and the most important thing signal and model generally agrees with others!!!
Interesting. Gefs looks worse qpf wise but at H5 looked better
NCSNOW
Member
Well its was 4 mb weaker in gulf. Like to see it deepening in GOM like at 0Z
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Ukie is an ACCU special! Nice hit for the low country. We now have three models against one. Where will the Euro fall?
weather bubba
Member
In this case that would not be a bad thing. More cold air is usually a signal for more suppression.
yeah for nc
RollTide18
Member
Yeah UK definitely looked a tick warmer, went from rain to snow across south Alabama vs all snow
buckinbronco
Member
For our peeps to the west and south...
iGRXY
Member
Absolutely love the UK right now. Day 6 with big totals about 150-200 miles to my south? Yes please
lusting4Adusting
Member
Somebody smarter than me ( so basically everyone here), I'm curious how the Ukie ends up high and dry back west with such a similar look at H5 to the CMC. What's happening with the Canuck to get it to kick start this party a bit earlier, and expand the qpf field northwest?
NCSNOW
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It is likely you will have more precipitation on the northwest side, even if the low track stays the same. It will show up later.
D
Deleted member 609
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I don’t care what the GFS op said. Someone in the SE is getting a significant storm next week.
Chattownsnow
Member
Would that include the precip from the storms preceding it?
NCSNOW
Member
Last night it deepened from 1016 to 1012mb in the gulf on hour 138 frame. Today it stayed at 1016 so we didn't get the north slug of moisture as much. That's what we want to happen in central gulf a quick deepening and a lot of us will be Golden.
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That includes the rain from Saturday. I have about .40" over my location after you deduct Saturday's precip. That would still be about 4 to 5" of snow, depending on ratios.