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Wintry January 21-23 2025

NCSNOW said:
Amazing looking at the 500mb vort on pivotal for Monday and comparing all the 0z Big Ops. The Can and Ukmet , if you look at the west coast ridging are sharper with their lines and this is why we get more digging with energy in sw. The GFS and euro west coast ridging lines are like McDonald arches, to rounded and not as sharp. I cant see out in the pac far enough on Ukmet, but all seem to have the vort off the baja about same location. That subtle diff is the reason for the 2 separate camps. No clue what causes the west coast ridging angle to be not as sharp on gfs and euro.
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For what it's worth the ridging out on the NAM so far on the 12z run at Frame 69 09z Sunday looks more like CMC then GFS/Euro from last night
 
1300m said:
Tracking these storms isn't for the faint of heart, that's for sure. Great catch here though. There is certainly life within the GEFS suite.
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Appears to be all or nothing for most of the board save the immediate coast!
I've seen many times we suppress with a true artic boundary that clears the coast of the Carolinas.
There's a reason GSP and others keep the Western Carolinas dry.
It's not just being ultra conservative at this range.
This process has higher odds as of now of having the winning hand.
Hope it changes soon.
Just my 2 cents.
 
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malak05 said:
For what it's worth the ridging out on the NAM so far on the 12z run at Frame 69 09z Sunday looks more like CMC then GFS/Euro from last night
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it may just be a mirage. it does seem like we've stumbled on an inflection point where minute changes in an upstream feature have immense downstream consequences. wouldn't be surprised to see more of a mixed bag at 12z
 
NCSNOW said:
Amazing looking at the 500mb vort on pivotal for Monday and comparing all the 0z Big Ops. The Can and Ukmet , if you look at the west coast ridging are sharper with their lines and this is why we get more digging with energy in sw. The GFS and euro west coast ridging lines are like McDonald arches, to rounded and not as sharp. I cant see out in the pac far enough on Ukmet, but all seem to have the vort off the baja about same location. That subtle diff is the reason for the 2 separate camps. No clue what causes the west coast ridging angle to be not as sharp on gfs and euro.
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Right now, we still have GEM, UKMET, and to some degree ICON support ... with a large number of GDPS/MOGREPS/GEFS/EPS support. Not exactly sure what to expect with today's GFS/EURO runs, but at this stage, the GFS/EURO are just another member of a larger subset.

What I'm more looking for on this cycle are for the GEM, UKIE to hold serve and it's ensembles meanwhile to see if the GFS/EURO OP trend back or not. (If it was just a blip or not).

I know we gripe about models... a lot, but think of it like this. The atmosphere is just like a flowing river.. just that's it is a river of air.

It's like throwing a stick in a river then try to figure out where the river is ultimately going to take that stick.. then when you think you have it figured out, someone throws a stone in the water, or someone speed rides on a boat changing the wave action on said river. Hope that helps for newer and less versed weather enthusiasts of an explanation of the chaos of modelology
 
Sctvman said:
Dave is always super conservative
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This should probably go into the complaining thread but I really wish some meteorologist would stop speaking in absolutes especially when it's still nearly a week out. There's nothing that says things won't trend better or worse at this point. It's a guessing game right now.
 
iGRXY said:
If anything the NAM is a perfect blend between the CMC/EURO/GFS
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I know it's what we do, but I hate that we have to analyze what the 84 hr NAM is doing with ridging and energy off the west cost. That's like trying to shoot the 5 off the 1 off the 13 off the side wall off the 6 into the 10 into the corner pocket.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know it's what we do, but I hate that we have to analyze what the 84 hr NAM is doing with ridging and energy off the west cost. That's like trying to shoot the 5 off the 1 off the 13 off the side wall off the 6 into the 10 into the corner pocket.
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That's what ends up happening when when you have 2 distinct groups that models are falling in. We go to analyzing the long range NAM and RGEM. (I almost threw up typing that).
 
iGRXY said:
This should probably go into the complaining thread but I really wish some meteorologist would stop speaking in absolutes especially when it's still nearly a week out. There's nothing that says things won't trend better or worse at this point. It's a guessing game right now.
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Speaking on that theme, Fox Carolina morning weather segment showed Euro and GFS operational runs and outlined the drier trend and then said based on that we have removed any chance of precip for Tues/Wed. Had sunny and cold.
 
Forevertothee said:
Speaking on that theme, Fox Carolina morning weather segment showed Euro and GFS operational runs and outlined the drier trend and then said based on that we have removed any chance of precip for Tues/Wed. Had sunny and cold.
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It seems if they see the GFS and Euro sort of line up that is what is to believe. Hopefully, we see some changes in both models today for the better.
 
Icon has a pretty good look to it right now but I could totally be wrong.
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MichaelJ said:
We tend to rag on GSP predictions but wouldn't it be ironic if they turned out correct early in this storm?
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Yeah but they were wrong about the last one early on. Most of us here can bat .500

Anyway, the icon looks like a good start with the handling of energy to the west.
 
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