Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP forecast still sunny and cold ..... not even a slight chance of any precip.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Gsp 2:55AM
The GFS and ECWMF, and their ensembles, have all trended toward a drier solution. The Canadian and its ensembles are wetter with some version of wintry precip for the southeast.Therefore, given the uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for now, capping any PoP at slight chance
The GFS and ECWMF, and their ensembles, have all trended toward a drier solution. The Canadian and its ensembles are wetter with some version of wintry precip for the southeast.Therefore, given the uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for now, capping any PoP at slight chance
Jan88
Member
If it can pick up the energy in the s/w.if comes out later looks like the cold may b pulling out .but at this point still too far out to know for sure
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Majority of the CMC ensemble members have some sort of wave along the gulf coast at hr 144
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RobertRath
Member
Now! I keep mentioning this but it feels very much like 2018. I honestly don’t have a good feeling about this one at all for N. AL. Im afraid we end up dry while S AL gets a huge snow.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
GEFS has no idea what’s going to happen
Man. This isn’t the best trend at H5 though… something changed out west (likely that big pac ULL backing up not forcing higher heights along the west coast) last night and is carrying on through this 06z cycle. Euro is headed a ugly direction here with the western ridge going up in flames 
6z Euro is bone dry unfortunately
Keep one liners and non threat/pattern comments in banter please.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Our energy for this system is almost or just about onshore. We need to absolutely see NW trends today or it's going total suppression. Last storm if you followed the energy the best you could you saw what happened. We really need this thing to dig in some and not fade out as it tries of round 1 is toast. Round 2 will be a flop too if we aren't careful with the energy either.
I've noticed that models have been correcting to a weaker, more neutrally tilted trough. That needs to be stronger and more positive.
I was looking at this massive change earlier. The previous hockey stick look held steady for numerous runs until last night.
It looks to me that the change is the upper ridge orientation in the NW territories/Alaska early on and is far removed from the Hawaii ULL.
ugly trend on the EPS as well 
this is straight evaporation 
NCSNOW
Member
Be a sharp cutoff, Like hwy 49 from Charlotte up to Burlington. Could move back west to 85 from Char to Greensboro or even further, But it would depend solely on angle and turn, if its straight miller A. Benefit is we stay all snow. The downfall is someone between mtns to central piedmont will get the shaft precip wise.
If you’re south of 85 / in sc it absolutely is. It sure why people act like storms down trend nw inside 120 hrs. Heck we see it trend inside 48
NCSNOW
Member
This isn't from suppression, its depression ( no storm)
Cary_Snow95
Member
It’s how it’s getting there that’s the problem
It honestly depends on where you’re at. I would say at this point, suppression is still good for the Carolina Piedmont, Foothills and SC upstate and northeast GA, but north and west of there not so much
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, the trend with the ridging out west has to be wrong, or else there isn’t going to be any way for any energy to dig.
I really don’t think there’s too much time for that to trend the other way as well. The GFS is likely about to score here.
I really don’t think there’s too much time for that to trend the other way as well. The GFS is likely about to score here.
The short-term evolution of both the GFS and EMCF is quite concerning. This isn't a timing issue involving moving pieces but a longwave orientation change at less than five days. If this holds, hat tip to the GFS which beat the Euro by 48 hours to this more neutral tilt longwave trough.
Hopefully, they're both getting spurious data from the high Arctic and come back around tomorrow.
NCSNOW
Member
We don't want to to see the bowling ball rounded look over America. Today is big trend day as they will all start lining up , in sync usually. Im worried most about loosing the shape we need. where we will win or loose this one
BHS1975
Member
It depends on why it's suppressed though.
jetstream30
Member
Hate to see the trends. Hopefully a positive change today.
Twister
Member
This is even Starting to not look good for us Upstate crew. To many Trends are starting to head for a Cold Drier Solution
Bump
whatalife
Moderator
The fact is we’ve seen too many times at this stage, modeling start to lose a storm, only to bring it back a couple of days later. Now I’m not in any way saying that’s guaranteed to happen here, but yes there is still time for these trends to reverse
Backyard dependent but this is what I want to see for mby
Cary_Snow95
Member
Another big thing impacting the pattern is this initial storm that’s been trending stronger. Helping to alter the shape and angle of the trough filtering in. The runs that smack the SE with a storm have this feature much weaker. Again not the only thing but as I have said in the past every storm impacts the one behind it and you can’t know what’s going to happen with something 200 hours out if there’s a storm or energy at 120 that’s still being figured out.
NCSNOW
Member
We need the ukmet or Canadian evolution from 0z last night, not the euro and certainly not GFS. Euro doesnt go to the extreme GFS does with the bowling ball look and I guess the GFS did trend it in the right direction at 6z some, but it still has a long ways to go. Euro is in between the CAN/Ukmet verse GFS painting. That said even the Euro will not get it done. This is the rubber match coming up at 12z today and 0z tonight. As everyone has explained way better than me, we have to have the trough leaning positive or our goose is cooked.
The 6z ICON is in the Can /Ukmet camp on this one still.
The 6z ICON is in the Can /Ukmet camp on this one still.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I think we could use a little bit more SE ridge or WAR in the euro
iGRXY
Member
Give it another couple of days before completely freaking out if you’re east of the apps. These H5 setups have been extremely volatile. The euro and EPS literally completely flipped from digging potentially too far west to nothing at all on 1 run. Let’s wait to see first before we chicken little this thing
It'll be interesting to see what happens with the pacific over the next 48 hours. That's been a drastic change with the ridge in 2 model cycles that ruins everything down steam let's see how the runs through tomorrow night trend
ForsythSnow
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The storm is suppressed on the Euro AI model, too. Precipitation confined to FL.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Posted by NWS Charleston office
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Tracking these storms isn't for the faint of heart, that's for sure. Great catch here though. There is certainly life within the GEFS suite.Yet we have the GEPS and GEFS increasing their totals.View attachment 164047wView attachment 164048
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Just to make people feel a little better, looking at the 00z UKMET and the 06z EPS they are basically identical at 18z Sunday.
The UKMET just digs the energy a little more afterwards.
I've said all along I think eastern parts of the board have the best shot at this and still feel that way. Still a long way to go, this one isn't dead.
The UKMET just digs the energy a little more afterwards.
I've said all along I think eastern parts of the board have the best shot at this and still feel that way. Still a long way to go, this one isn't dead.