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Wintry January 21-23 2025

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No vigra yet over here hope that changes…


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SREF came back east a little as well, think we realized the most western potential and now things will level off. Probably see the NAMs come back east slightly at 12z as well. Just zeroing in best areas now

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Weatherlover92 said:
There’s another one north of Chamblee.
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If it's true in that streak, I'll have an answer if there's any truth soon unless someone's down in that band currently.

Confirmed my RH is at around 70 to 75 with a nearby station. Temps rising ad are dews so it just needs a little push and we could close the gap.
 
RBR71 said:
The 3K NAM still on the increase and you can see why, but it's also somewhat of an outlier. Getting the .25 back to I-95 and look how far west the .1 is. Hope it has a better handle on that fgen and I'm hugging this for all it's worth lol
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.5 qpf with ratios around 12-15:1 would be 6-8" at PGV...so close to this being a big event here...assuming this is correct...or better yet underdone.
 
I am not saying analyzing model data is pointless at this point but it's now time guys. Just sit back & enjoy this. Personally, I am over looking at model data & stressing about the tweeks one way or the other. Hoping everyone gets what they desire!
 
Well, an absolutely fascinating -- and high-stakes -- NAM vs. the World model battle setting up in Florida's panhandle and I-10 corridor.

Literally every model I can find shows 2-7 inches of snow for Tallahassee EXCEPT the NAM which insists on a gargantuan ice storm (.50+ inches using FRAM) and virtually no snow at all.

If it were ANY model other than the NAM on this island I'd be fueling up the snowmobile I keep in the outbuilding just in case, but it is definitely a "coup-worthy" model when it comes to thermals and warm noses and the like.

Regardless, even the NAM agrees with the rest of its colleagues on something truly historic -- between .6 and 1.2 QPF will fall on Tallahassee and almost all of it will be frozen.

Truly can't believe it.

So, anybody want to make the case that it's the NAM off its rocker?
 
beanskip said:
Well, an absolutely fascinating -- and high-stakes -- NAM vs. the World model battle setting up in Florida's panhandle and I-10 corridor.

Literally every model I can find shows 2-7 inches of snow for Tallahassee EXCEPT the NAM which insists on a gargantuan ice storm (.50+ inches using FRAM) and virtually no snow at all.

If it were ANY model other than the NAM on this island I'd be fueling up the snowmobile I keep in the outbuilding just in case, but It is definitely "coup-worthy" when it comes to thermals and warm noses and the like.

Regardless, even the NAM agrees with the rest of its colleagues on something truly historic -- between .6 and 1.2 QPF will fall on Tallahassee and almost all of it will be frozen.

Truly can't believe it.

So, anybody want to make the case that it's the NAM off its rocker?
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No one on this board will do that after the sh** show that ensued a couple weeks back. We all got hosed. Maybe this time will be different? There’s always that hope. GL down there ☃️
 
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