Wintry January 21-23 2025

[packfan98]

Long live the Nam.
Im gonna go 1-3 across Randolph County..This finger band out front now on all modeling is real deal. Expect more trends favorable through today. More we get those lines sharpened se-nw tilt, the better.

I’ll go trace-1” for us with the best possibility being a dusting to 1/2”. One more favorable trend will get us that inch like you said.

 

[SegTindoPro]

I really think NWS in Mobile need to bump totals up a little this morning after these 6z runs

They already did I think


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[Oconeexman]

At least we get virga streamers..wasn't expecting that

 

[Fountainguy97]

Brings a tear to my eye being from Eastern NC. You guys are reeling it in!

HRRR jumped on board at 06z. NAM and HRRR are a winning combo. This NAM trend is something special.

 

[accu35]

 

[Shaggy]

Charleston actually dropped DOWN slightly with the numbers... my bladder wakes me up, I see the new data and immediate say they HAVE to go up on forecast amount. ... NOPE...

I went up to 2"-4" inland coastal counties, 1"-3" along the SC coastal plain inland to 20 miles (sleet compaction). ..

I was worried about that. My qpf jumps to 1.1 on the nam but my snow goes from 4 inches to 2 the rest sleet. Oh well

 

[jrips27]

Man. HRRR is really struggling to find the northwest edge. Keeps going with it

 

[SimeonNC]

I woke up to both NAMs being mby 1-2" of snow and now being under a winter weather advisory lol

 

[packfan98]

National Blend of models is playing catchup.

 

[accu35]

Much better Rap

 

[SegTindoPro]

Latest HRRR

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[packfan98]

Newest from NWS Raleigh. Looks like they are now forecasting the entire area to see snow.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Latest HRRR

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Can you show NC


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[packfan98]

Can you show NC


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It only goes out to 18hrs. Need to wait a couple of more runs. This should give you an idea on where the footprint of snow would be.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Holy smokes Blizzard Warning for Texas / Louisiana!!


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[SegTindoPro]

Can you show NC


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I got ya!!!


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[rburrel2]

I made it to a tenth inch of liquid on most modeling. Incredible, and I don't think we're done. I'm expecting close to 2 inches here at this point. We're going to get in on the initial finger band, and she's gonna do work boys! It pays to be on the northern fringe!!!

What a time to be alive. Don't even have a WWA here and gonna get blasted with a couple inches of powder with temps in the teens.

 

[accu35]

Holy smokes Blizzard Warning for Texas / Louisiana!!


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Mobile discussion mentioned blowing snow. Wondering if those blizzards warning would trend east some giving that the winds will be 20-30 range with this storm

 

[Mitch West]

Made a call map. Going a little aggressive here but hopefully it works out.

 

[rburrel2]

Also interesting to note that the GFS says I get 6 solid hours of snow today. Starts at 2pm and doesn't slack off until 8-9pm. Let's go!!!

 

[rburrel2]

Made a call map. Going a little aggressive here but hopefully it works out.
View attachment 166221

I appreciate you trying to maintain some objectivity here, but that's not aggressive. That's conservative for CAE at this point. lol. You should be stoked!!!

3 inches is your floor, imo. I'd guess 4-6 falls though.

 

[RBR71]

This is unreal View attachment 166194View attachment 166195

One more NW adjustment and I'm in warning criteria snow, no way, just no way. I see Rah NWS is in catch up mode though, advisory now for tonight. Let's see how today progresses and dude when do you sleep?

 

[accu35]

Already snowing at my house. Sticking to my car, and the main event is still back west

 

[bigdawg3]

Each beginning frame of HRRR continues to increase precip shield.. Still don't think it has a firm grasp on the atmosphere...yet.

 

[rburrel2]

Come to papa

That's got to be some high ratio stuff there.

 

[accu35]

Just started

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Are my fellow Ga weenies seeing that finger of virga (for now) 30dBZ love, streaming down the I20 corridor this AM on FFC radar?

 

[rburrel2]

Would love to hear some experts opinion on snow ratios here... From what i'm reading the ideal zone for high ratios is like -13C to -20C in the snow growth area. Seems like our best forcing will be 500 to 700mb area? Could we be cooking with 15-20:1 ratio's here? Tell me what I'm missing?

 

[jrips27]

For posterity’s sake

 

[rburrel2]

The more I read, the more I think our floor on ratio's is 15:1 when the heaviest bands pivot through. And it could be as high as 20:1.

 

[jrips27]

Are my fellow Ga weenies seeing that finger of virga (for now) 30dBZ love, streaming down the I20 corridor this AM on FFC radar?

Yes. My hunch is we are slightly ahead of schedule moistening up the column

 

[ForsythSnow]

For those in N GA, how are your dews and temps? I'm running colder and more humid at the surface at 19.4/12.5 when modeling has our DPs around 4 lower and temps 1 to 4 warmer.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yes. My hunch is we are slightly ahead of schedule moistening up the column

That streamer looks persistent and moving latitudinally slow enough to suddenly start reaching the ground in a surprise early round. We've seen this look overperform before.

 

[WarEagle22]

Already snowing at my house. Sticking to my car, and the main event is still back west

Where is that?

Are my fellow Ga weenies seeing that finger of virga (for now) 30dBZ love, streaming down the I20 corridor this AM on FFC radar?

Been under those bands for several hours now across the line.

 

[packfan98]

The more I read, the more I think our floor on ratio's is 15:1 when the heaviest bands pivot through. And it could be as high as 20:1.

15:1 would be a good average I think. Here's the Bufkit Cobb output from Charlotte for the 6z NAM

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 166224Just started

Please update your location in your profile so folks know where you are posting obs from.

 

[SimeonNC]

My lowest temp was 19.8, I feel like either the wind or the cloud cover kept mby temp from going into the teens

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

For those in N GA, how are your dews and temps? I'm running colder and more humid at the surface at 19.4/12.5 when modeling has our DPs around 4 lower and temps 1 to 4 warmer.

I've bounced up from a low of 18 to 23 currently. It's just a simple digital thermometer so IDK MBY dewpoint. Nearby obs indicate a DP in the lower teens.

 

[Weatherlover92]

For those in N GA, how are your dews and temps? I'm running colder and more humid at the surface at 19.4/12.5 when modeling has our DPs around 4 lower and temps 1 to 4 warmer.

23/6 temperature really shot up from 6 hours ago when it was 17/3. Airport is 23/7.

 

[NEGaweather]

For those in N GA, how are your dews and temps? I'm running colder and more humid at the surface at 19.4/12.5 when modeling has our DPs around 4 lower and temps 1 to 4 warmer.

Jumped up to 24. Humidity at 44 and dew point at 5.


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