Based on ever uptick with hrrr I won’t be surprise if some spots in midlands of SC see maybe up to 8-12 inches of snow.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Alrighty, the SREF has gone from like 20% chance of snow to 75% in CAE now. and some of the members are actually obnoxious.
Highest member: 1.00 inches of liquid.
Some other higher ones:
0.94
0.79
0.70
The mean is right at my best guess ceiling of 0.31 liquid precipitation.
This model, the HRRR, and the NAM/GFS/Euro are going to cause the local guys to expand watches/advisories etc here in the next little while. They like the 3-4AM to do it.
Highest member: 1.00 inches of liquid.
Some other higher ones:
0.94
0.79
0.70
The mean is right at my best guess ceiling of 0.31 liquid precipitation.
This model, the HRRR, and the NAM/GFS/Euro are going to cause the local guys to expand watches/advisories etc here in the next little while. They like the 3-4AM to do it.
Shawn what would 1.00 inch of liquid equal too in snow inches in this setup?
13-15 inches for us. We would have a little less 850c temperature cold with that type of moisture, but somewhere around there.
Edit: correction. I actually think a bit lower between 11-13 tbh.
SegTindoPro
Member
Let it cook!!!
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SegTindoPro
Member
H
Here’s the other 2
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SegTindoPro
Member
Fro's got the good ones.
Nam bouta do it
Makeitsnow
Member
06z nam already has 2.2 inches of snow over ATL.....at 18 hours. Wow. Looks like FFC's thinking may play out over the Metro.
Can’t refresh this NAM run fast enough
Nam slower with the northern stream again… is it overdoing it at this point or we just gonna keep going ?!
this is the weenie nam run. hell yeah. this HAS to be the ceiling of the event
Makeitsnow
Member
Trying to remember it's the nam but....
NAM with a moderate snow sounding all the way in CLT ?! 
If Atlanta gets NAM’d, but no one is awake to see it, does it still count? 
NAM says let’s ride
Nam starting to go crazy with the warm air advection 
Makeitsnow
Member
Nam has it snowing at my local for nearly 12 hours. And there is still time to go higher....but is it right or is it just the nam being the damn nam?
SegTindoPro
Member
Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia Gets NAM
’d
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’d
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The 3K NAM really might make me drive to Macon. Blanks Atlanta
Personally, I think what FFC has been alluding to is playing out in front of our eyes. If the NAM is to be believed, it doesn't take long to get the precip to the ground, just like FFC said could happen.
I keep noticing each nam/hrrr run initializing with a stronger subtropical ridge nosing towards us at hr 0
This might actually be the gulf data that was sampled..
and we get another recon flight in the morning at/for 12z..
SegTindoPro
Member
So the stuff coming in is from that!?!
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I hope that warm advection is overdone with storm because I’m in Clarendon County and think it’s a mostly snow event.
This is unreal 
Supposedly they did a flight for some of the 00z modeling. I don't think they had time to get all the data for the 00z NAM though.
SegTindoPro
Member
This is something ya don’t see everyday crazy stuff man
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I already have virga that has developed overhead, not that it means much but it does seem to be a bit early for it to be arriving above us.
Expect big changes with watches/warnings/etc in the Midlands from NWS by dawn. Very cool trends today. The only bad results we had were some of the foreign modeling that isn't so great for our region.
So from 12z to 06z most modeling with more precip. that's an actual trend, finally.
So from 12z to 06z most modeling with more precip. that's an actual trend, finally.