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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Shawn said:
Expect big changes with watches/warnings/etc in the Midlands from NWS by dawn. Very cool trends today. The only bad trend we had was some of the foreign modeling that isn't so great for our region.
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I’m expecting new warnings and watches to go out in morning as well the trends suggest it and the current warnings may have their totals updated


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Shawn said:
Expect big changes with watches/warnings/etc in the Midlands from NWS by dawn. Very cool trends today. The only bad results we had were some of the foreign modeling that isn't so great for our region.

So from 12z to 06z most modeling with more precip. that's an actual trend, finally.
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Winter storm warnings definitely needs to be put in place.
 
Shawn said:
Expect big changes with watches/warnings/etc in the Midlands from NWS by dawn. Very cool trends today. The only bad results we had were some of the foreign modeling that isn't so great for our region.

So from 12z to 06z most modeling with more precip. that's an actual trend, finally.
Click to expand...
It was nice to see the euro better though, and normally it’s good with placement but awful with QPF
 
Fascinated to see what FFC does. They have played it basically perfectly so far.

My best guess is probably extending the warning to just of the metro. And adding a few counties to the advisory on the northern side to be safe

Kudos to them so far

I’d guess something like these lines


IMG_2765.jpeg
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
330 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>011-108-GAZ120>126-142>144-155-211630-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WS.W.0001.250121T1500Z-250122T1200Z/
Coffee-Dale-Henry-Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-
Holmes-Washington-Jackson-South Walton-Quitman-Clay-Randolph-
Calhoun-Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Early-Miller-Baker-Seminole-
Including the cities of Fadette, Holmes County Airport, Headland
Municipal A/P, Williamsburg, Mabson, Coles, Pleasant Ridge, Fort
Gaines, Cordrays Mill, Clarks Mill, Geneva Municipal A/P,
Enterprise Municipal A/P, Jones Crossing, Hartford, New Hope,
Graves, Daleville, Dothan, Babcock, Browns Crossroads, Freeport,
Milford, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Ricks Place, Iveys Mill,
Browntown, Elmodel Wma, Dill, Graceville, Screamer, Malone,
Leonia, Logan Field Municipal A/P, Abbeville Municipal A/P,
Asbury, Abbeville, Springvale Station, Dawson, Edison, Early Co
A/P, Donaldsonville A/P, De Funiak Spring Airport, Orange Hill,
Santa Rosa Beach, Sneads, Peterson Hill, Donalsonville, Union,
Pretoria, Yeomans, Davis Park, Ganer, Eucheeanna, Five Points,
Days Crossroads, Bagby State Park, Ozark, Commissary Hill,
Bunker, Palmyra, Turquoise Beach, Simsville, Cuba, Riverturn,
Hatcher, Shivers Mill, Morgan, Beamon, Albany, Richter
Crossroads, Point Washington, Blackwood, Cuthbert, Cooktown,
Portland, East Albany, De Funiak Springs, Argyle, Battens
Crossroads, Ewell, Pecan, Forrester, Blakely, Newton, Leesburg,
Enterprise, Lawrenceville, Center Ridge, Seminole State Park,
Hacoda, Wire Bridge, Herod, Boykin, Barker Store, Dickey, Hoggard
Mill, Ashford, Alpine Heights, Bonifay, Geneva, Chipley, Lockett
Crossing, Blackwell Field A/P, Little Hope, Crossroads,
Springvale, Benevolence, Colquitt, Crystal Lake, Cobb Crossroads,
Cottonwood, Chipley Municipal Airport, Red Store Crossroads,
Arlington, Centerville, Hawkinstown, Fairchild, Douglasville,
Moores Crossroads, Walker, Bellview, Keyton, Cluster Springs,
Headland, Poplar Head, Marianna, Sandestin, Mayhaw, Doverel, Fort
Rucker, Turner City, Glendale, Georgetown, and Dawson Municipal
A/P
330 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025 /230 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, Panhandle Florida, and
southwest Georgia.

* WHEN...From 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 7 AM EST /6 AM
CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

Do not touch downed lines and report any power outages to your
electric company. Travel is highly discouraged due to slick roadways
and the possibility of downed trees and power lines.

&&

$$


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So basically only the NAM thinks it’ll hit ATL. NAM 3km thinks it’ll be close but still miss, and HRRR says we’re totally out of the game. Hmm..
 
RAH forecast discussion as of 3:38AM:

Right now, confidence on how
far west the band sets up is too low to introduce advisories as far
west as the US-1 Corridor given the seemingly abrupt change in model
guidance. However, there is enough of a signal and ensemble support
from the HREF/LREF to add Cumberland to Edgecombe into an advisory
for 1 to 1.5 inches of snow. If model trends continue to progress
westward, advisories or even warnings may be additionally issued and
expected amounts will be increased. Interested parties along/east of
US-1 should stay up to date with the forecast as it is likely to change as the day wears on given this very dynamic situation taking
shape.
 
jjwxman said:
RAH forecast discussion as of 3:38AM:

Right now, confidence on how
far west the band sets up is too low to introduce advisories as far
west as the US-1 Corridor given the seemingly abrupt change in model
guidance. However, there is enough of a signal and ensemble support
from the HREF/LREF to add Cumberland to Edgecombe into an advisory
for 1 to 1.5 inches of snow. If model trends continue to progress
westward, advisories or even warnings may be additionally issued and
expected amounts will be increased. Interested parties along/east of
US-1 should stay up to date with the forecast as it is likely to change as the day wears on given this very dynamic situation taking
shape.
Click to expand...

Lol. RAH needs to get with the program.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
I think the will go straight to warnings at noon. But that might cause some problems/ issues but we will see. Eric do you think it continues the trend or anything like the nam is showing?


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That’s why my forecast was bullish and NW yesterday. I specifically anticipated this trend to continue happening up until verification.

 
Mitch West said:
What in the world is CAE doing? Waking up to still see no alerts at all. Absolutely wild.
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Charleston actually dropped DOWN slightly with the numbers... my bladder wakes me up, I see the new data and immediate say they HAVE to go up on forecast amount. ... NOPE...

I went up to 2"-4" inland coastal counties, 1"-3" along the SC coastal plain inland to 20 miles (sleet compaction). ..
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Do you think you’ll need to increase your forecast today?


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Click to expand...

I think there will need to be some upward and westward adjustments to snow amounts from me, just not anywhere near as much as what most others will have to do.
: )
 
For my SC/NC peeps it’s looking good!!!!
304ec437ea374ffd40fbb6a8ba6c5f0f.png



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Arcc said:
Dang, I can’t unsee that NAM run. Two inches here with four or five a county away and trending NW in a hurry. Surely it’s off its rocker.
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Look at the radar trends. Just a whole heck of a lot of dry air to overcome


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The long discussed winter storm continues to head towards our
area, with a deep cold, dry airmass ahead of it early this
morning. Wind chills this morning are slightly warmer than
forecast, as surface temps are in the mid-20's. But winds 5-8
mph overnight have still pushed wind chills into the mid-teens.
Cold dry advection will continue this morning and overrunning
cold cover aloft will keep temps in the low-mid 30's by the
afternoon.

By mid-afternoon, the first precipitation from the approaching
system will push into the CSRA and southern Midlands as a broad
swath of warm advection overspreads the area. The strengthening
upper level jet right entrance region, combined with increasing
low level isentropic lift, should steadily erode the dry air in
place and wet bulb the boundary layer. So it is likely that this
first initial precip will struggle to make it to the surface,
with surface dew points below 10 F. The strongest synoptic scale
lift will then push into the region by late afternoon and the
evening, with strengthening 850-700mb frontogenesis developing
under the right entrance of the extremely strong 200 knot jet
streak over the Mid- Atlantic. There has been a very notable
shift in guidance to the northwest with the highest QPF's,
starting with the 00z and furthermore with the 06z; so
confidence is now high enough for a Winter Storm Warning in the
CSRA and southern Midlands. SLR's are also uniquely high with
this event for our area, over 10 to 1, thanks to the impressive
thermal profiles and frontogenetic enhancements. Both of these
trends line up very well with expected behavior from a
conceptual model standpoint, with potential banding developing
along the western flank of the precip shield with relatively
high SLR's. Hi-res and global model cross sections support some
western flank banding as a broad region of strong omega and
frontogenesis at or just below the dendritic growth zone
develops. So the increasing snow totals in guidance again line
up with the synoptic- mesoscale conceptual model. There are
still notable differences in the location of the heaviest snow,
with a scatter shot of potential from the central Midlands to
the southern Midlands. Generally, a swath of 0.5-1" is likely
along and north of I-20 and 1-3" south of I-20. Some of the hi-
res guidance, like the HRRR, continues to focus and train the
frontogenetic banding across the southern CSRA and southern
Midlands. This a very possible outcome, but the exact location
what won't be known until it starts to develop and it could very
well develop to our south. But the high end potential for this
event has increased notably as a consequence, with over three
inches possible across a narrow swath in the southern CSRA-
southern Midlands.

Timing is generally good agreement, with the first impactful snow
likely between 4pm and 7pm as the low levels steadily wet bulb. The
strongest batch of precip is then likely from 7pm to roughly
midnight, with the last lingering snow likely in the eastern
Midlands by 4am. Road conditions will likely remain poor into the
morning hours, hence keeping the winter storm-advisory products up
through 9am.

Great discussion though by CAE discussing that frontogenesis.
 
I really think NWS in Mobile need to bump totals up a little this morning after these 6z runs
 
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