Wintry January 21-23 2025

[SimeonNC]

This is encouraging

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Well, an absolutely fascinating -- and high-stakes -- NAM vs. the World model battle setting up in Florida's panhandle and I-10 corridor.

Literally every model I can find shows 2-7 inches of snow for Tallahassee EXCEPT the NAM which insists on a gargantuan ice storm (.50+ inches using FRAM) and virtually no snow at all.

If it were ANY model other than the NAM on this island I'd be fueling up the snowmobile I keep in the outbuilding just in case, but it is definitely a "coup-worthy" model when it comes to thermals and warm noses and the like.

Regardless, even the NAM agrees with the rest of its colleagues on something truly historic -- between .6 and 1.2 QPF will fall on Tallahassee and almost all of it will be frozen.

Truly can't believe it.

So, anybody want to make the case that it's the NAM off its rocker?

It's noteworthy that based on Mping reports, there is a LOT of mixing currently in southern Louisiana.

 

[RBR71]

I like it and hope he is right

 

[Makeitsnow]

Well, radar trends are putting the final nail in the coffin for most of Alabama. Honestly, the lack of reports out of MS should be concerning for everyone right now.

This was expected...additional lift and precip will reenergize the precip shield in a few hours for ga/sc. Hard to say about Alabama but Models have consistently shown a few hour drier window

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It's noteworthy that based on Mping reports, there is a LOT of mixing currently in southern Louisiana.

It appears Baton Rouge is in the best spot. All snow and more heavy bands otw.

 

[tractor girl]

Athens Georgia right now

 

[connorsclimate]

This is like Christmas Day in Raleigh, NC right now! I was not expecting this amount of snowfall.

 

[MichaelJ]

Moisture plumes make you think that .5-1 inch possible on the extreme NW precip but here, it is likely just too dry for much except some virga. Anybody west of Burlington in NC will fight virga for most of the precip being shown. Currently I sit at 16F and -1 DP. Same situation for NW SC and SW Va. Hope Fl peeps can fight off the mixing and get some real snow.

 

[Twister]

This virga moving across upstate and other areas of SC Now is just saturating for what will come later

 

[RollTide18]

Starting to switch over to snow in New Orleans now

 

[Philstorm91]

It's been a steady, light powdery kind of snow since about 2:30 this morning. Already seeing a dusting on my car.

 

[AJ1013]

Snowing in Brownsville

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m at 22/3. That doesn’t seem insurmountable

 

[Sctvman]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It's been a steady, light powdery kind of snow since about 2:30 this morning. Already seeing a dusting on my car.
View attachment 166255

Dang, that's so meager given the radar returns. The snow should start to pick up soon though.

 

[Chazwin]

Well, an absolutely fascinating -- and high-stakes -- NAM vs. the World model battle setting up in Florida's panhandle and I-10 corridor.

Literally every model I can find shows 2-7 inches of snow for Tallahassee EXCEPT the NAM which insists on a gargantuan ice storm (.50+ inches using FRAM) and virtually no snow at all.

If it were ANY model other than the NAM on this island I'd be fueling up the snowmobile I keep in the outbuilding just in case, but it is definitely a "coup-worthy" model when it comes to thermals and warm noses and the like.

Regardless, even the NAM agrees with the rest of its colleagues on something truly historic -- between .6 and 1.2 QPF will fall on Tallahassee and almost all of it will be frozen.

Truly can't believe it.

So, anybody want to make the case that it's the NAM off its rocker?

I wish I could tell you not to worry but I’ve been on the heartbreak side of that too many times over the years.

 

[Twister]

I’m at 22/3. That doesn’t seem insurmountable

My DP has actually gone up a degree last 30min from 6 to 7

 

[Makeitsnow]

Athens Georgia right nowView attachment 166254

I'm 25 minutes to the east of you so let me know if you see anything lol

 

[BullCityWx]

Moisture plumes make you think that .5-1 inch possible on the extreme NW precip but here, it is likely just too dry for much except some virga. Anybody west of Burlington in NC will fight virga for most of the precip being shown. Currently I sit at 16F and -1 DP. Same situation for NW SC and SW Va. Hope Fl peeps can fight off the mixing and get some real snow.

Virga is modeled in

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Dang, that's so meager given the radar returns. The snow should start to pick up soon though.

The problem with dry powdery snow is that you have to have a lot of it for it to actually look good on the ground and on elevated surfaces.

 

[Webberweather53]

Moisture plumes make you think that .5-1 inch possible on the extreme NW precip but here, it is likely just too dry for much except some virga. Anybody west of Burlington in NC will fight virga for most of the precip being shown. Currently I sit at 16F and -1 DP. Same situation for NW SC and SW Va. Hope Fl peeps can fight off the mixing and get some real snow.

I disagree. It won’t take that much to snow in the Triad

 

[chapelhillwx]

Lake Charles, LA

 

[albertwilsonjr]

What dew point is the sweet spot


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[ForsythSnow]

I know my location says Kennesaw but I’ll in South Forsyth near Alpharetta for this one. I think I saw a couple tiny flakes through the window but it ain’t muchView attachment 166252

Confirmed as I passed 15 minutes ago. Small bit of tiny flakes around exit 12

 

[Webberweather53]

The evening commute could be problematic, especially when most folks heard it wasn’t going to snow that much yesterday.

The DGZ is nearly saturated already along the I-85 corridor from Charlotte back to Atlanta. That’s why some snow flurries are already reaching the ground despite the sub-cloud dry layer. This dry layer is also pretty shallow, with snow flakes not having enough time to fully sublimate before they reach the ground

 

[RollTide18]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What dew point is the sweet spot


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The one that’s closest to the actual temperature at the ground. We want to see them continue to rise throughout the morning.

 

[chase223322]

I thought my flight was at 2:00…its at 4:00 out of Hartsfield…getting a little more nervous now…

 

[SimeonNC]

Okay this is insane lol, there's already a tiny dollop of >90 RH in SC and most of Meck county is above 80

 

[packfan98]

New 12z hrrr is really drying out on the NW side. I wonder if the new plane recon data is contributing.

 

[BullCityWx]

Changed to snow on the bourbon street camera

 

[SimeonNC]

New 12z hrrr is really drying out on the NW side. I wonder if the new plane recon data is contributing.

Didn't @Webberweather53 say that the HRRR doesn't do well in these events? I think I saw a tweet of his that said so

 

[Brent]

Weve been done since last night but still

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That’s a lot of virga creeping up 85 and I-20. Moisten my columns harder

 

[Webberweather53]

Didn't @Webberweather53 say that the HRRR doesn't do well in these events? I think I saw a tweet of his that said so

The HRRR has been pretty bad in this event upstream of us, as it normally is when there’s warm advection involved in forcing precipitation. I’d lean towards the NAM here

 

[Sctvman]

Brad P boosting that 2-4

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Tiny flurries near the ATL airport. I can confirm.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Oconeexman]

Flurries Starr Iva area...wow
Edit that..classic grapes. Pretty neat

 

[Cbmatt2408]

Okay this is insane lol, there's already a tiny dollop of >90 RH in SC and most of Meck county is above 80

View attachment 166259

So with this map, that area in East Central AL and W Central GA, does that imply that when the precipitation arrives it should have minimal resistance to reaching the surface?