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Wintry January 21-23 2025

This pattern coming up looks very 2014ish imho
I was just about to say this. If you remember the EURO/EPS combo really latched onto that February storm this far out. Nothing as crazy as that EURO just now but you could definitely tell the ingredients were there
 
I was just about to say this. If you remember the EURO/EPS combo really latched onto that February storm this far out. Nothing as crazy as that EURO just now but you could definitely tell the ingredients were there
That is one storm I recall we knew as coming fairly far out. Also the 2002 Jan storm as well. At least a week
 
Some Atlanta station mentioned this storm on the models last night on their weather news report.. I don’t watch local news wx but my family had it on and happened to see it.. surprised that they mentioned it.. guess if it happens they wanted to claim first dibs 🙄
 
EPS 3 run trend. That west coast ridge is hawt
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Will Ferrell Elf GIF by filmeditor
 
We’re really gonna need to see some support soon! So far, only faint support in the ensembles. Means looked skewed from one big event. Let’s bring this one home!
I think that's a sage approach as well. My BS meter is way up right now but it sure is something I will forever wishcast for!!!
 
Something tells me this is one of those times where a winter storm will show up on every model run, in some form or fashion, right up until verification. There will be some highs and lows for sure, but this looks like a pattern that will produce and the euro may be locked in for a very long track storm system.
 
I always like when you see a general good projected pattern rewarded with periodic fantasy runs across several model suites. The clown maps are useless, but the fact that activity is showing up on the Ops AND the ensembles (as opposed to one or two rogue ensemble members) validates the legitimacy of the pattern and the gives greater confidence that it will produce something. So, good stuff today.
 
My biggest concerns are either we swing the ridge out west neg tilt, or we shove the western ridge to far east, the 2nd option is becoming more possible as models pick up on the +EAMT
Either 42° rain or bare ground with single digit low temperatures.

We must connect in the middle.
 
No, not really. Oklahoma, most of Arkansas and Tennessee all received 8"-12". This storm is not showing that. I would be surprised if we ever see another Jan 7, 1988.
Most of Tennessee did not receive 8-12, only around Memphis was that the case. Most of Tennessee received 2.5 to 5. Edit my bad I thought you were talking about the last storm, not 1988.
 
I'm looking at analogs to the Euro run (why of course)

Best one I've got is early February 1967. At the beginning of the loop, there is a winter storm affecting the mid-south along the arctic boundary, while the wave for the storm of interest is dropping into Idaho - it then digs into Texas before moving east, with the surface low tracking from the SE gulf to off Hatteras

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