NBAcentel
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
The way this is tilting this could be a banger run for GA/SC/NC
Snowlover34
Member
How about Alabama?
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
packfan98
Moderator
Eastern NC special.
@Metwannabe gonna like this one
A Georgia heartbreaker as the low shifts to the Atlantic.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Right where we want it right now
Pops
Member
Gonna be a long week of model watching ..who knows what's gonna happen!!
Need that pig to dig. Theres energy in the western pacific that needs to calm down bc it wrecks our PNA at the last minute when it hits the coast
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Setup is still pretty good. Don't need a weenie run every time at this range but you have to love the classic stovepipe dive.
packfan98
Moderator
REMINDER!
Let’s keep the one liners and banter out of this thread. We are going to have to tighten things up again with more traffic and another threat to track. Thanks!
Let’s keep the one liners and banter out of this thread. We are going to have to tighten things up again with more traffic and another threat to track. Thanks!
GFS trying to punch the eastern Carolinas in the mouth again right after 
From NWS Atlanta afternoon disco
“I feel like I`m having to do this too much for a meteorologist in Georgia, but let`s once again take a moment to discuss the potential for some winter weather middle of next week. Yet again, we are seeing a few of the operational models occasionally spit out a significant winter event for our area, giving some eye popping 10:1 snow maps ripe for slapping up on social media. With signs that we will have yet another significant Arctic front move through the area by the end of the week into early next week, we will certainly be in a set-up that *could*, once again, bring
winter weather into the CWA. Cold air will be well into the Gulf, establishing a baroclinic zone along the coast, and there are signs of a shortwave that may be able to tap into that for surface low formation and have a decent connection to the subtropics to pull in some moisture. However, so far, of the 2-3 potential winter setups like this we`ve seen the models spit out this winter season, 1 has panned out. Getting all the ingredients in line at the right time in the right way is always tough here. To emphasize this, looking at ensemble model probabilities across the 12Z guidance for getting >1" of snow, the GEFS shows around 5%, the European ensemble around 10-15%, and the Canadian about 5% only in northern GA. Could it happen? Absolutely. These probabilities are certainly much higher than the typically probability of snow on a given day in the winter in Georgia (<1% in most places). But despite a deterministic model run spitting out big numbers, there are still plenty of model runs where things just can`t quite get lined up. So, keep an eye on the forecast, know the possibility is there, and we`ll have a much better idea of if we can get things to come together the closer in time we get to the potential event.
Lusk”
“I feel like I`m having to do this too much for a meteorologist in Georgia, but let`s once again take a moment to discuss the potential for some winter weather middle of next week. Yet again, we are seeing a few of the operational models occasionally spit out a significant winter event for our area, giving some eye popping 10:1 snow maps ripe for slapping up on social media. With signs that we will have yet another significant Arctic front move through the area by the end of the week into early next week, we will certainly be in a set-up that *could*, once again, bring
winter weather into the CWA. Cold air will be well into the Gulf, establishing a baroclinic zone along the coast, and there are signs of a shortwave that may be able to tap into that for surface low formation and have a decent connection to the subtropics to pull in some moisture. However, so far, of the 2-3 potential winter setups like this we`ve seen the models spit out this winter season, 1 has panned out. Getting all the ingredients in line at the right time in the right way is always tough here. To emphasize this, looking at ensemble model probabilities across the 12Z guidance for getting >1" of snow, the GEFS shows around 5%, the European ensemble around 10-15%, and the Canadian about 5% only in northern GA. Could it happen? Absolutely. These probabilities are certainly much higher than the typically probability of snow on a given day in the winter in Georgia (<1% in most places). But despite a deterministic model run spitting out big numbers, there are still plenty of model runs where things just can`t quite get lined up. So, keep an eye on the forecast, know the possibility is there, and we`ll have a much better idea of if we can get things to come together the closer in time we get to the potential event.
Lusk”
Where at?
rburrel2
Member
That run seemed like it was a hair away from hooking up with the gulf and being a much more widespread event. Good run either way.
Yeah it was. Just need it to dig a little more to tap the GOM. There should be some good looks on the GEFS
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Got a story about that storm in cold season complaining today.
Go check it out.
With others making comments about it!
Looks like the GEFS will have something. It’s out to 216 on my site and has a signal starting back in Texas and headed east to Louisiana and Mississippi.
Cary_Snow95
Member
For central NC, the euro and gfs paint very similar pictures
B Rad in a more “ wintry mood” these days!
One thing to really consider. With the temps this week and next, a euro like storm would completely shut down the entire southeast for at least a week.
We will need to beat the crowds to grab milk and bread yall.
We will need to beat the crowds to grab milk and bread yall.
Cary_Snow95
Member
GFS at 00z 01/22
Euro at 00z 01/22
Euro at 00z 01/22
NBAcentel
Member
This is a pretty great H5 pattern regardless. Got a whole TPV lobe in Canada just at day 7 
Should be a lot of energy riding the fringes of that wheel
good god
catching up
this is one of the best 9 day signals ive ever seen on an eps. it actually may be the best. 6 inches to wilmington? pardon me?
quick reminder that the friday storm also had big dog potential until it got hung up in cabo. this bet feels a little safer
NBAcentel
Member
Some trend to NATL blocking as well 
NCSNOW
Member
Dont rule out Sun into Mon . Just need a tweak or 2 to get a novelty event to kick start as pattern flips that day. Not impossible.
thinking about this as well but it is a good sign that so far it looks like the flow will have a southwesterly component
NCSNOW
Member
Hope bounceyman keeps us up to speed on the AI models this week. Doesnt Euro AI runs like 7pmish and 7am?
word of caution on the euro is that this look is probably a nudge or two southwest to being another baja issue. temper expectations
That'll really come down to the orientation of the western ridge. If it starts to roll over the top then it'll probably happen again, just like what happened last time. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
yeah, tbh these sort of wave dynamics are not my strong suit but it looked like that was caused by anticyclonic wave breaking and this ridge isn't as "poky". things could change though. i have a carton of milk in my fridge that i bought like a week ago and i feel like that carton and this pattern have the same chance of going bad over a 10 day peroid
Pops
Member
Critter sat night is getti
Boy that looks like overunning from Texas up into Tennessee to carolinas!!
i'm not gonna lie it is simply an elite look that other models are showing. explosive potential. something to remember with setups like these- this will feature a super tight temperature gradient. if this really is legit, small changes in track will incur massive temperature swings at certain fixed points. if you're in Charleston there's a chance you could be 17 and snowing one run and then facing severe at 65 the next run. You will be tempted to say, the models don't know anything. They actually do know something, it's just a product of the temperature gradient swinging back and forth.
lexxnchloe
Member
Both agree. Lock it in.
lexxnchloe
Member
And lets not forget this one
This is 18z euro at 144hrs. This is the wave before the energy that caused the HECS on the 12z run but this is not a bad look imo and looks similar to 12ukmet at 168hrs. I feel like this will go down as one of best January’s in the last decade. Who would’ve thought this back in August
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
You know I wouldn’t mind one 70 degree day. But at this rate it’s not gonna happen this January 