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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Arcc said:
One thing to really consider. With the temps this week and next, a euro like storm would completely shut down the entire southeast for at least a week.

We will need to beat the crowds to grab milk and bread yall.
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I'll take one for the team*. Why so much laughter? Is it the "Boy you got that right'" type? Because the jug drinking water was bought up well in advance of this last cold weather where I live.

Sincerely,

*Someone from the Gulf who has experienced rare frozen precipitation
 
GSP
Next weekend period
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EST Sunday: the extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Thursday with the backside of a broad upper trof amplifying again
over the Great Lakes while steep upper ridging lingers over the
western CONUS. Over the next couple of days, the trof axis will
translate off the Atlantic Coast as the upper lvl pattern briefly
flattens over the Southeast. Over the weekend, another round of
very broad upper trofing will amplify over the central CONUS/Great
Lakes and likely cover much of the CONUS. At the sfc, broad high
pressure will be in place over the Southeast as the period begins
and is expected to linger thru the end of the work week. By late
Friday/early Saturday, most of the long-range guidance has another
low developing to our west and quickly bringing a broad area of
deeper moisture to the Carolinas over the weekend as the period
ends. This system will likely bring widespread precip to our CWA,
but the timing of the system is still fairly uncertain.
 
Rain Cold said:
I can't wait until February folds.
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I think February might be interesting at times with a lot of variability in temps. The conventional wisdom says that we should be very mild, however I remember the 1993-94 La Niña came on late like this one has and December and January were both below average with numerous Arctic intrusions and 4 different winter events in the Carolinas outside the mountains. A strong snow pack was put down all across the Midwest and Northeast and that lead to a lot of CAD, but the SER flexing out some warm days in there as well. When the ice/sleet storm that month hit the Carolinas, temperatures in CLT day before were well into the 70s in the mid afternoon and 24 hours later the were in the mid to upper 20s with ZR and heavy sleet.
 
fb160a12347ec6b8a0c6f4a4d53156a1.jpg

Brad P already Honking in Charlotte. Normally that’s a solid sign, especially in his recent Conservative days. He’s right “Just Pattern favorability” but man, that’s a pretty look for sure


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jrips27 said:
Yeah messy mid-south set up on the Canadian. Although it seemed to do the very worst on the most recent storm by a clear margin. So not sure I’m giving it much weight View attachment 163080
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It, unfortunately, makes a lot more sense climatologically than a Cuba cutter bringing a winter storm to Florida.

I'm hoping for some middle ground.
 
John1122 said:
It, unfortunately, makes a lot more sense climatologically than a Cuba cutter bringing a winter storm to Florida.

I'm hoping for some middle ground.
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But I’d say this is a system on the CMC that runs the Arctic boundary as it is moving SE and bringing the cold air in. Anything of interest SE of the Apps would be a follow-up storm a few days later
 
jrips27 said:
Cold and dry on the 0z Euro. There was some energy flying around but the cold press is too deep and nothing really has a chance to dig. We will see about the EPS
View attachment 163084
View attachment 163085
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Once the Euro figures out it can’t bring 0c 850’s 350miles into the Gulf of Mexico the storm will probably be back for someone
 
This potential from the Euro AI looks more realistic. On Thursday Jan. 23 as the cold air press relaxes we get another Baja low phasing with energy in the northern stream and surface low pressure develops in the gulf crossing southern Georgia and into the Atlantic. Looks weak though

Not to disregard the potential on the 20th-21th but it’s in suppression city right now. Let’s bring it back!
IMG_1365.pngIMG_1368.pngIMG_1367.pngIMG_1366.png
 
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