At this lead time you cant get much better. Just better hope the cold stays and the high pressure
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Yay
Solid! Let’s do it all again!
Pops
Member
Muscle shoals?sorry to ask
First time I’ve seen a model throw around this idea this winter 
Even the EPS isn’t far off. Can’t see the strat on it but sets up a more dominant lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex over Hudson Bay. The Indo-pac forcing is forcing this strong +TNH signal, in some ways similar to 2014, but the East might get lucky here as a weak +EAMT event occurs around day 7 and gets the pacific jet just far enough east to be in a favorable location 
Note the trend in the pacific.
Note the trend in the pacific.
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kennedybb6
Member
I lived in Wisconsin back then please tell me the story of said storm1988 all over again go look back at that storm!
It was EPIC!
Major winter storm with widespread 12”+ total from Oklahoma/Texas east to the Carolinas. CLT saw its all time daily snowfall record set with that storm at 12.1”. The snow was pure powder with temperatures in the mid to upper teens throughout
Can’t get over this trend. Very rare. The barolcinic zone shifting SE 
rburrel2
Member
Yea, i'm worried we're gonna overcook the cold press, but then I think there's no way we verify as cold as the Euro shows. It's probably best to keep the cold press shown as depicted(overbearing to the point of suppression) for as long as possible, b/c it will mostly likely slack off some in the next couple of days.
Right now, The 12z GFS, 12z GEFS, 12z Euro, 12z Euro AI, and 12z EPS, 12z ICON, 12z MOGREPS are all either too strong or borderline too strong/too far South and East with the cold.
The 12z CMC/00zSpire/12zCMCE/06z GFS graphcast are the the only models still showing concerns with too weak of a cold press and a baroclinic zone too far North/West.
Right now, The 12z GFS, 12z GEFS, 12z Euro, 12z Euro AI, and 12z EPS, 12z ICON, 12z MOGREPS are all either too strong or borderline too strong/too far South and East with the cold.
The 12z CMC/00zSpire/12zCMCE/06z GFS graphcast are the the only models still showing concerns with too weak of a cold press and a baroclinic zone too far North/West.
JQPublic
Member
It was my fifth birthday party and all my family that drove in was snowed in for a few days. It was great!
ColdCoreLow
Member
GOM, uhum, do you mean GOA?
This one always worries me. While trying to nail the pattern down it’s one that can give you +-20 degree swings between cycles. Hold on tight
Belle Lechat
Member
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View attachment 163012
Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a coast to coast temp map like this before! The US becomes Siberia
For perspective from the POV of Houston, using it as a yardstick against the 14 F in the model above
one time growing up I experienced (hid in the bushes for warmth waiting for the school bus, as was our street's custom when very cold) 10 F in Houston. The next lowest in my 18 years there was 17 F.
rburrel2
Member
Yea I feel like in the last 20 years there's been several times we were widely forecasted to be in this type of setup in the day 6 to 8 timeframe... and they have literally always trended the wrong way for us,(warmer/wetter).
The good thing right now is that we may need some shifting back with it this time since everything has went so extreme with the cold press.
wow
Member
Hello March 1927
LickWx
Member
That run was wild, Gulf of Mexico ice storm? Since when is the Euro the new Canadian?
With the amount of cold being forecast this far out on ensembles. I’d like to see this trend stop. This has all the hallmarks of dominant dry cold. Something many here hate to see
Since it was allowed to go out further than 240 hours lol
rburrel2
Member
The shifts East is what's been money for us. The concern is too much shifting South with the cold press... Feel like that almost certainly has to be overdone with the lack of blocking and the fact that this is essentially the main polar vortex we're talking about. We need an arctic high drifting/building west to East across the Northern US, not across the Gulf coast.
Southern Illinois? I bet you don't like this look. Wouldn't you prefer some kind of apps runner?
Maybe, but I like seeing the snow mean move SE
In a perfect world yes. But past day the dry cold has dominated our trend. Given another day it will dominate for y’all as well. You want to see it hold up a bit or even move more NW. this is a pattern that favors more SE trends than NW
After the last storm once again proved, I am not worried about too much cold.
Yeah, no doubt. I will be happy for folks south of here to cash in but it hurts to be north of the best snows when you live far enough south already! Mind numbing when that happens. @dsaur likes to remind me of one of those events!
Tallahassee’s mossy oaks would be wiped out by that (not that it has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening, LOL). But one of the craziest model runs I’ve ever seen.
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rburrel2
Member
For entertainment purposes only, but it looks like the 12z jma was about to get a storm cranking in the Gulf at hr192.
Two feet of snow would make up for two straight snowless winters, truly. Of course, it has no chance of happening but I haven’t seen a model run like this in a decade.
And this isn’t even hr 384 on the GFS, this is actually around D10! Might be time to take the plunge for WeatherBell.
You know, it’s funny because I do think the Euro’s reputation of being Dr No and not showing fantasy storms in yesteryear was partially because it did stop at D10 and thus wouldn’t ever show all the goofy solutions you get with the GFS at hr 384, etc.
rburrel2
Member
Dang... can't believe this wasn't posted. 12z Ukmet at hr168, looks... tasty.
Was looking back at some archived model data I saved, and the Pangu-Ens mean did absolutely magnificent with the low track & temps with the last system. The run on 1-7 @ 12z was (anecdotally) the best run of any model that cycle with low track, 850mb temps, and 2m temps.
Will definitely be pulling it back out for any threats upcoming!
Will definitely be pulling it back out for any threats upcoming!
rburrel2
Member
Yep. Plus it only ran 2x a day so it had half as many opportunities to spit out some weenie fuel.
I sent this guy a PM to join us over here. He is one of us
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
KPDK would be more representative of the Metro.
CJ already made a video about 2 hours ago and solely focused on the euro
coldspringsfarm
Member
Did it stay locked in or did it vary with subsequent runs?
Looks like we gonna try something here digging energy out west 