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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Heavy snow in the low teens. I wouldn't even know what to do with myself.
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Vince Carter GIF
 
On the other forum someone said there’s not much ensemble support.
At this range, EPS look to be in strong agreement with the op on the overall long wave pattern. Wouldn't expect much else this far out.
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-vort500_z500-7288000.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-vort500_z500-7288000.png

This is a good signal at this lead time too, IMO.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_snow_10to1-7763200.png
 
You'd be hard pressed to draw up a better map than that. A nearly perfect placement and magnitude of all the prominent features. I wish for just one time, we could see one of these on the plots 24 hours out.
The heartbreak is catastrophic when it shows that and then fails at such close range. A few years ago the Euro put a 30 inch bullseye over my area 24 hours out and I ended up getting 2 inches. I couldn't look at a model for a month after that one.
 
The heartbreak is catastrophic when it shows that and then fails at such close range. A few years ago the Euro put a 30 inch bullseye over my area 24 hours out and I ended up getting 2 inches. I couldn't look at a model for a month after that one.
That happened in Feb 2014 for ATL. I remember those clown maps. 🤣🤣
 
south of Nashville seems to be out of the game on this one
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Keep in mind, someone will miss, southeast or western areas. I do always look with a skeptical eye when any model shows historical winter events deep into Florida. They've tried it a couple of times this year already and it's not even been close really. That said, even though I "only get" half a foot from that run, it'd be incredible to see snow lovers in those unusual areas get such a monster.
 
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