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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Guess I shouldn’t have moved from Tallahassee.
If that verified, it would be the biggest snow accumulation in Tallahassee history (I believe the record is 2.8”).
Of course, I doubt it will verify one way or the other but that’s neither here nor there.
dsaur
Member
I vote for the Canadian, and don't even care if I get a pellet. That kind of snow will cure all ills and bring about great good will. Might even cause pigs to fly, and other unusual occurrences as well. I'm pretty sure I'd levitate, lol.
I think grit pointed this out the other day but there have been a few model runs that have a crappy strung out low in the gulf but still show a wide precip field. (I wanna say it was the aifs or cmc) Are the dps too low to allow this to happen or could it just be the models over doing precip? I mean tonight’s UK kinda looked like this having precip up to the northern upstate and graphcast in western nc.
SegTindoPro
Member
Worth noting the sampling for the pac wave looks to occur around D1.5 and the northern stream wave moves into Canada around D3
SegTindoPro
Member
SegTindoPro
Member
Ngl I’m in southeast Alabama so imma take what I can get!
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JLM
Member
Our last Winter Storm Warning in the Pensacola, FL area was in 2014. Do we finally get another one after nearly 11 years? We will have to watch and see, but the overall chance for some form of frozen precip seems to continue to rise here, whether it be freezing rain, sleet, or snow. Continuing to watch closely.
06z icon is suppressed.
lexxnchloe
Member
Nothing on ICON
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Hours 120, 132 of the CMC ensemble (including control) showing fairly decent agreement with the mid week system. SW-NE precip axis aligned along the gulf/SE coast. IMO it’s been fairly consistent
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It seems like the CMC was incredibly consistent with moisture with last weeks system. Cold was a little overdone. The AI was also, but the AI is bouncing around a little more with the system for next week
Hours 120, 132 of the CMC ensemble (including control) showing fairly decent agreement with the mid week system. SW-NE precip axis aligned along the gulf/SE coast. IMO it’s been fairly consistent
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
00z Euro AI seems to be a tick more suppressed but precip shield is far enough inland to bring some snow/ wintry precip IMO to parts of GA/SC/NC
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Another big improvement from the GFS this morning 
beanskip
Member
Turn those frowns upside down, kiddies, the 6z GFS just did a thing!
Let’s keep it going
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Since I’m stupidly awake, I’ll try to post this:
Well, it didn’t work, but the 6z GFS was another 60ish mile shift north.
Wonder what it did at h5 for that, and it’s a darn shame the Euro shifted away from the 18z.
Well, it didn’t work, but the 6z GFS was another 60ish mile shift north.
Wonder what it did at h5 for that, and it’s a darn shame the Euro shifted away from the 18z.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
My oh my GFS you are starting the morning off great..nice big step toward a winter storm for the SE
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The past 24 hours on the GFS has in general took a better step for all to see decent snowfall totals. Need this to continue for another 24hrs. The CMC was doing this about 36 hours ago.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
My oh my GFS you are starting the morning off great..nice big step toward a winter storm for the SE
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Not too far off from the CMC at H5, nice improvement if you ask me
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS was a tad late on amplifying off the coast, just a little quicker though…oh man
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Downeastnc
Member
Not too far off from the CMC at H5, nice improvement if you ask me
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Definitely a step towards how the 00Z CMC ran...the GFS was a touch faster and did not dig quite as much but really that is all noise at this range....
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Six run trend of the GFS
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, that's a clear trend. Let's keep it going. Nice start to the day.
Six run trend of the GFS
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Improvement with the 6z GEFS
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP going with "partly cloudy and cold" Not even a slght chance of precip for next week.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Little bit better QPF response on the 6z GEFS
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
That increase in the gulf is the most interesting feature.
Little bit better QPF response on the 6z GEFS
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They did add a 30% chance of snow to my forecast for Tuesday night
Much better. For the folks back West, keep the faith.
Let’s hope this trend don’t continue too much more if so we will be too warm for nothing but rain.
Six run trend of the GFS
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Downeastnc
Member
Just need the NW side precip shield to expand versus moving the low track NW, there is room for it to move and keep the coastal folks in the game....but not much.
iGRXY
Member
Hopefully it doesn’t flatten it out but there’s more digging out west and over the plains
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Just as predicted the GFS is trending down with the pressures over the Midwest. This has allowed the NW trend. We have gone from a 1045mb in MS to a 1040mb in Iowa. If this continues, look for the storm to affect a larger portion of the deep south and southeast.
CFS has a prolonged, widespread mixed precip overrunning event followed a day later by a seperate little tail end topper.
NCSNOW
Member
The trick is the Canadian Phases, Ukmet is like a 90% + phase, but another key is to look closely at the location of the surface LP in the GOM as it winds up and heads NE direction into Atlantic.
6Z GFS is right there with both, its just futher south with Surface low placement in the GOM. We want it to ride the Gulf coast as it hopefully winds up.
Step 1 , is we have to get the phase, step 2 is the LP track in the GOM, further north, bigger prize.
6Z GFS is right there with both, its just futher south with Surface low placement in the GOM. We want it to ride the Gulf coast as it hopefully winds up.
Step 1 , is we have to get the phase, step 2 is the LP track in the GOM, further north, bigger prize.
iGRXY
Member
It’s creeping north. Still need more digging of the N/S and keep it from flattening the wave so much as it moves east