Wintry January 21-23 2025

[NickyBGuarantee]

Damn.

This is going to be an epic fail for one of these models and an epic coup for the other.

But I suppose since they aren’t too terribly off at H5 theoretically it could go either way.

Crazy how small of a difference can cause such an outrageously different solution.

 

[jrips27]

Hard not to think of this looking at the Canadian. It’s going to happen again someday. WHY NOT US?

 

[Ross]

verbatim warm nose would be an issue at the immediate coast

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Stormsfury]

The FGEN is off the charts... IF the GEM is remotely correct... One, huge respect but the bigger issue would be some CSI banding taking shape (and yes, elevated thunder) ...

 

[iGRXY]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Damn.

This is going to be an epic fail for one of these models and an epic coup for the other.

But I suppose since they aren’t too terribly off at H5 theoretically it could go either way.

Crazy how small of a difference can cause such an outrageously different solution.

The GFS is very slowly improving. They may end up with a moderate storm.

 

[NCSNOW]

Theres only one way across the finish line. Full phase Gom over Florida up off sc,nc coast.
Nothing else is gonna cut it. So we go big or go home.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Canadian just printed a 36” lolli over Goldsboro NC with a 5-6 day lead

They might have to decommission it

 

[griteater]

CMC 500mb

 

[Makeitsnow]

42 inch max in se nc lol

 

[ForsythSnow]

No way the CMC tries to go for round two. It's about to phase another two energy pieces on Friday too?

Edit, it misses but it was so close to a second smaller round for some.

 

[Stormsfury]

View attachment 164417So the first thing strictly from the surface is the Canadian isn't unlike other models with pressure placement. The Low crosses central florida like every other model we've seen but the precip shield is much more robust.
The GFS is about a notch or 2 away from the CMC at H5 too.

This is literally a blend of Feb 12th, 2010 and Feb 9th-10th, 1973.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

CMC really built up the snowpack for southern Florida to get in on the next CAD event

 

[jrips27]

Someone out there is over 100 inches of Canadian digital snow this week I’d imagine

 

[Arcc]

42 inch max in se nc lol

View attachment 164427

Dang a foot at New Orleans and Mobile. Legendary status will be achieved.

 

[Makeitsnow]

-7 in the atl Thursday morning.

 

[Ross]

i will give it this- the cmc is locked in

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC 500mb

View attachment 164426

it’s crazy how it did that without the cutoff interaction. Wow. That’s the craziest vort gif I’ve ever seen

 

[FortMillSCWx]

I'm a Carolina Homer but this is just absurd. I can only hope it happens to the Bayou. Furthermore, and linking some thoughts, I'm in Augusta for the next week and man that weight of snow on the trees in this area. (Standard caveats apply/not gonna happen, but still)

 

[RBR71]

Canadian just printed a 36” lolli over Goldsboro NC with a 5-6 day lead

They might have to decommission it

I saw a 42" lollipop on kuchera map,

 

[NCSNOW]

That was a perfect handoff on the Can. On The GFS ,the QB pulled the ball and fell forward before the RB got there. Both are running the same play now. One executed it perfectly

 

[hky1894]

I never remember Canadian being this aggressive with a storm before


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[rduwx]

CMC 500mb

View attachment 164426

Went neutral to negative at the perfect time for CLT and RDU areas.

 

[Sctvman]

New Orleans hasn’t even had flurries since 2009. Only 3 times since 1990

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

One thing is for sure. If that amount of snow dropped across the entire SE. there would be devastating impacts to buildings and trees and long lasting power outages. Snow is fun and all but that would cripple the SE to a standstill for weeks.

 

[griteater]

it’s crazy how it did that without the cutoff interaction. Wow. That’s the craziest vort gif I’ve ever seen

I'm kind of with what some others have said that the little cutoff is pretty much a moot point here. Just a very small piece that's floating around there....I mean maybe if it got sucked in out ahead of the larger diving western wave it could help....but think it's mostly just a small bobber floating in the pond there.

 

[Arcc]

I never remember Canadian being this aggressive with a storm before


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I have, 12/08/17, but not this far in advance.

 

[iGRXY]

One thing is for sure. If that amount of snow dropped across the entire SE. there would be devastating impacts to buildings and trees and long lasting power outages. Snow is fun and all but that would cripple the SE to a standstill for weeks.

Yeah we still have Ice in the shaded areas here and it's been a week later. 12-24" with multiple days below freezing after would bring this place to a stand still

 

[Makeitsnow]

Didn't want to skip this either...barely into the low teens at 18z wed. Windchills are sub zero and as low as 15 below Thursday am. Just unreal stuff.

 

[rduwx]

it’s crazy how it did that without the cutoff interaction. Wow. That’s the craziest vort gif I’ve ever seen

Agreed. I posted earlier about needing the Baja to be further SE if we were going to see these totals. I was wrong. Lol!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So in 5 days parts of ENC will either get a warm nosed sleet pellet or 42” of Snowbird Utah powder. How do you plan for that?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It’s crazy because it looks as though most of the GEFS supports the suppressed coastal to nada scenario the GFS has.

And most of the CMCE (from 12z and I’ll assume the 00z stays the same but time will tell) completely support the CMC solution

Both models and their ensembles seem to be 10 toes deep into what they think will happen. That’s what makes this an especially big time failure for one of these models.

10 years ago we wouldn’t even respect the CMC like that but nowadays it’s made incredible improvements.

So it’s a genuine question .. who’s right and who’s wrong?!

 

[griteater]

So in 5 days parts of ENC will either get a warm nosed sleet pellet or 42” of Snowbird Utah powder. How do you plan for that?

Well, I can tell you what you don't do (like some were doing earlier in the thread - not you).....you don't come in here in the thread and start making bold claims about what is and what isn't going to happen. Bunch of options on the table, lots to sort out, and lots of time left

 

[jackendrickwx]

It’s crazy because it looks as though most of the GEFS supports the suppressed coastal to nada scenario the GFS has.

And most of the CMCE (from 12z and I’ll assume the 00z stays the same but time will tell) completely support the CMC solution

Both models and their ensembles seem to be 10 toes deep into what they think will happen. That’s what makes this an especially big time failure for one of these models.

10 years ago we wouldn’t even respect the CMC like that but nowadays it’s made incredible improvements.

So it’s a genuine question .. who’s right and who’s wrong?!

Probably both of them to some degree. Recent history tell us the cmc is off its rocker (I tend to think it is, but maybe not as much as usual?) but the American suite has been ticking toward the snowier solutions.

 

[jrips27]

Canadian drops 3 feet and the GEFS on cue maybe has its worst run of the week. Pain

 

[NCSNOW]

Ukmet gonna take a shot here

 

[iGRXY]

Mhmmmmmmm. N/S is further SW here

 

[Shawn]

FWIW, there are only two bigger storms on the GEFS now. This is a bad trend as the ensemble mean will be falsely skewed by them too.

 

[Rain Cold]

We need to take a moment and appreciate the potential here. The kind of images being printed out with this system are something that may take a decade to be seen again.

The GFS may be right in the end, but the Canadian solution is absolutely on the table. Heavy snow in the teens with 12++ over a wide area and -0 windshills and temps following. Unreal.