The thing about the CMC though is in the past when it would do something stupid and crazy; it would do it at long range and for one or two runs at max. This is five straight runs with a huge area of 10-12”+. I’ve never seen this before.
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The thing about the CMC though is in the past when it would do something stupid and crazy; it would do it at long range and for one or two runs at max. This is five straight runs with a huge area of 10-12”+. I’ve never seen this before.
NCSNOW
Member
Omg at hour 114 almost full phase at h5 and like ball rolling off receivers fingertips,just misses. Had it in its hands
You gotta look at h5 ukmet and canadaian side by side. Man
You gotta look at h5 ukmet and canadaian side by side. Man
Trash model. Trash ensembles. It’s the Canadian but in the other direction
iGRXY
Member
UK is a big improvement at H5 IMO. Very close to the CMC look with more N/S digging.
Downeastnc
Member
Be nice to see the CMC be right for a change, obviously I dont expect 24-30" but it would be nice to end the 3 year snow drought. I do think it would be fitting to end such a drought in grandiose fashion however, which 2-3ft of snow certainly does, I have been patiently waiting since Mar 1980 to get a storm to become the "new" Mar 1980, maybe 45 years is long enough.
Yeah, well losing the GEFS completely is a huge problem to the ones who thought the drier Euro/GFS would come around.
It's just overshadowed by an obnoxious third tier model right now.
beanskip
Member
UKMET super warm compared to, well, every other model. Fully 10F warmer than CMC in many places of the southeast at 120 hours.
iGRXY
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Still a whiteout beast
SimeonNC
Member
If I recall, the Canadian has higher verification scores than the GFS, there an image that showed verification.
The fact that the Canadian has been adamant on a solution like this and it's ensembles support it somewhat makes me think that it's not completely out to lunch imo. Is it realistic? No, but shave those totals by 1/3rd-3/4ths but keep the extent of the snow and that's totally on the table.
Of course, the GFS/GEFS can also be right, but there has been more variation, which makes me trust it less.
I wouldn't wanna be a met at any of the NWS offices in the south right now.
The fact that the Canadian has been adamant on a solution like this and it's ensembles support it somewhat makes me think that it's not completely out to lunch imo. Is it realistic? No, but shave those totals by 1/3rd-3/4ths but keep the extent of the snow and that's totally on the table.
Of course, the GFS/GEFS can also be right, but there has been more variation, which makes me trust it less.
I wouldn't wanna be a met at any of the NWS offices in the south right now.
Not trolling. If the low is in the center of the gulf you get coastal snow. If it’s in the northern gulf you get SE snow. We’ve seen both positions so far tonight from the CMC and GFS
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet clown dumps 9-12 +up the GA, Sc,Nc coastal plains
The GEFS was just lost. The WHOLE GEFS mean is skewed by one obnoxious member. It's not just the GFS. At day 5 it (GEFS) is losing the storm..... something it has not done yet, until tonight.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like the GFS is on an island so far tonight. CMC and UK definitely not in the GFS camp. Euro on deck.
iGRXY
Member
UK is still a nice hit but man it is a smidge of a difference away at H5 from being a monster.
It's kind of had a consistent footprint over the last few cycles too. I mean, I don't like it for me, but it's been pretty steady. We really need to see the Euro hop back onboard. The GFS is foolish, and will eventually fall in line.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm curious about the GFS Graphcast, I wanna see if it supports the traditional GFS or not.
NCSNOW
Member
Misses by a hair,literally cant see with naked eye at hr 114
NCSNOW
Member
It looks like Can an Ukmet
SimeonNC
Member
The 00z Graphcast came out already?
What? The 12z Graphcast cut the wave off and introduced all kinds of ptype problems?
Am I crazy? Did that not happen on the 12z Graphcast, especially up into NC?
I’d rather see this than what we saw last week. It would be so nice to not have to worry about temps for once, even if we are on the northern periphery.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think the point was it had a pretty strong storm across the Southeast vs Bermuda
Philstorm91
Member
You and me both. The most snow we've had in parts of southern Louisiana in recent years was the December 2008 snow, which dropped up to 10" in a few spots. But widespread snow over a foot would do a number on the infrastructure and vegetation, I would think.
NCSNOW
Member
I have it confussed with another AI model. Like 3 diff versions being discussed on here between 6-9 pm tonight. I plead 5th. Cant keep up with them. So many. One had same footprint as ukie, can inland alot
This is the kind of madness you usually see on the hr 300+ GFS. To see it at D5 is pretty insane…I’m honestly not sure I’ve ever seen a solution for the SE quite this extreme so close to a potential event.
Yes, the 12z GFS Graphcast broke off the southern piece and had some delay but still is quite cold here, just not quite as cold as others
Stormsfury
Member
I did, the NAM on the Jan 3rd, 2018 winter storm. NAM spit out a run of 27" across the Low country counties...
iGRXY
Member
More N/S digging on the Euro.
iGRXY
Member
It'll still be suppressed, but just keep digging that N/S.
Euro took a step backwards. It did dig the northern stream more but there’s no tilt to the s/w
iGRXY
Member
Honestly at this point until we get the wave closer to shore these deviations with the S/W are going to keep happening
CMC ensembles are still juicy but did tick south 
It was amazing!
albertwilsonjr
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
The amount of moisture required to moisten these columns would be immense
