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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CMC may be the best run so far, colder than 12z. Everybody wins.
Maybe this stupid piece of garbage will be right this time
Much more like it’s Ensemble suite as well west to east orientation.
Not too far off from the euro solution I don’t think.
NCSNOW
Member
Wowza at Canadian . 1 foot M@M storm.
I needed to take that shower, wash off all the gfs stinch I just watched
I needed to take that shower, wash off all the gfs stinch I just watched
not super concerned about the gfs, especially if the ensembles are fine, but this holdout is a bit curious to me
RollTide18
Member
If the ensembles are still showing a system then it’s only a matter of time before the Op folds.
Then again, it could pull a massive upset.
It is hard to believe that the best and brightest America can put forth would be this completely lost
Right? lol
Stormsfury
Member
I'm pretty certain that bias WebberWeather noticed on how it handles cold air on the Rockies is partly to blame here. I mean that run had the jet stream well east of the Rockies that go around ...
Inside 180 hours too.. someone is about to take on a huge error on their record and it clearly feels like the GFS
Brent
Member
Well our met did say snow chances may be increasing Monday 
that's new
that's new
NCSNOW
Member
Not curious to me anymore. Par for the course. Never expect anything diff from it. Learned years ago
The downside to the CMC though is definitely a trend at 500mb toward the flatter look.
A happy medium though and nearly everyone wins.
A happy medium though and nearly everyone wins.
And the panhandle and extreme South Georgia
CMC is an absolute nightmare for the SE. round after round of winter precip of significant portions. This will shut down the SE for a while if it were to play out that way
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs just made over a 1000 mile adjustment with surface low from 18z to 0z
JLL1973
Member
Gfs and cmc are miles apart
NCSNOW
Member
It would be a blessing and welcomed . Snow,not frzng rain part
webb is elite at finding little nudges like this, helps his operational forecasting is in NM here
it is still a fine enough weather model that will have accurate and inaccurate periods. while i'm skeptical of the holdout the solution is in the back of my mind
The Canadian has been steadfast in showing a big winter storm. I suspect this is because the pattern isn't as complicated as some of the more typical conditions we often see with these things.
NCSNOW
Member
GEFS looks like Canadian Op.
J1C1111
Member
It would be a absolute dream for me and I have to get out and work in it. We had this stuff happen in the 80s and 90s and we're still hear to talk about it.
More amp system like your saying. Still curious why gfs is in goofy land?!?!
I'm starting to wonder if part of the reason the CMC is picking up on the storm despite wildly different H5 solutions is because it often does a better job of recognizing cold air masses and the baroclinicty associated with them. The GFS does not look correct with this and is probably one reason it is missing out on the isentropic upglide associated with this event. This is just a theory, but you can see below during the heart of the Canadian event what a difference there is.
Yep, I don't disagree. That makes sense.
I mean.
albertwilsonjr
Member
are y’all seeing the 2nd low forming behind the first burst. We could be looking at a 2 day event if it verifies
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You're missing out on the 2+ inch ice storm a couple days after. That is a nightmare.
Stormsfury
Member
And that the GFS develops a Lee side Rockies Low in Colorado spuriously and flooded Texas and OK with strong southerly flow...
tjed73
Member
womp womp (as a disclaimer, I have no comment on this beyond sharing it)