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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Shawn said:
The fun part about this type of storm is you really only need to be worried about amplification/strength and location of the low pressure system as long as it's not delayed by shenanigans to our West.

The air mass that is likely to be in place is cold enough at the surface and throughout the entire atmospheric column with those model's depictions (maybe a little sleet mixing in further South of I-20 and ZR on the coastal plain).

The caveat to this is, this is only true if the models are correct in their very cold temperature depictions. Along with cold temperatures, you'll have dry air in place which will lead to more cooling as precipitation evaporates (at first) in the dry air mass. That may make up for them being overdone on the cold.

In all of my years seeing storms around I-20, I can say that the biggest ones in my lifetime, have started in the daytime. To get a nice I-20 snow, we need more than "just being right on the line" and needing night time to keep us snow.
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2/12/10.
 
Shawn said:
The fun part about this type of storm is you really only need to be worried about amplification/strength and location of the low pressure system as long as it's not delayed by shenanigans to our West.

The air mass that is likely to be in place is cold enough at the surface and throughout the entire atmospheric column with those model's depictions (maybe a little sleet mixing in further South of I-20 and ZR on the coastal plain).

The caveat to this is, this is only true if the models are correct in their very cold temperature depictions. Along with cold temperatures, you'll have dry air in place which will lead to more cooling as precipitation evaporates (at first) in the dry air mass. That may make up for them being overdone on the cold.

In all of my years seeing storms around I-20, I can say that the biggest ones in my lifetime, have started in the daytime. To get a nice I-20 snow, we need more than "just being right on the line" and needing night time to keep us snow.
Click to expand...
We even have the weather channel forecasting 5-10” on the daily forecast here in LaGrange. I have never seen a snow forecast like that here. It seems like the cold could be in place enough to allow for it to make it down this far. Just can’t have too much NW shift over the next 6 days.
 
Shawn said:
The fun part about this type of storm is you really only need to be worried about amplification/strength and location of the low pressure system as long as it's not delayed by shenanigans to our West.

The air mass that is likely to be in place is cold enough at the surface and throughout the entire atmospheric column with those model's depictions (maybe a little sleet mixing in further South of I-20 and ZR on the coastal plain).

The caveat to this is, this is only true if the models are correct in their very cold temperature depictions. Along with cold temperatures, you'll have dry air in place which will lead to more cooling as precipitation evaporates (at first) in the dry air mass. That may make up for them being overdone on the cold.

In all of my years seeing storms around I-20, I can say that the biggest ones in my lifetime, have started in the daytime. To get a nice I-20 snow, we need more than "just being right on the line" and needing night time to keep us snow.
Click to expand...
I don’t mind being right on the snow/ sleet line those can make the best storms. Freezing rain in my area can wreck havoc as most of northern middle GA is pine trees and 2014 is on all of our minds. I’d liked the 12z model runs but that 18z Euro would make a lot of people uneasy.

I know we have to have everything perfect to get snow.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, the Euro AI was a bit more suppressed than what I was thinking based on the pivotal weather maps. Good for those deep in the SE who haven't had much snow, including myself.

Curious what the snow map is for it.
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Yes, could use a good Gulf Coast snow for once. Its been since 2018 since anything meaningful, havent had anything but a little freezing rain since then. The AIFS based on soundings dumps a lot of ice in the FL Panhandle thru the entire event, doesnt seem like much snow with that run, but snow is hard to come by here anyways.
 
SD said:
An hour ago the eps and op were too far north then the AI was too far SE now the mudgrips are too far SE. Too many models running too many times and too many people living these events in 1 hour vacuums
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I can't wait until tomorrow when we can start extrapolating the 84-hour NAM and RGEM. Not an hour will go by with some new runs!
 
Just doing a recap for the upstate of SC as of this evening. I've bolded the runs that I think are the most important right now:

Major hits:
12z CMC-snow to ice significant accumulations
18z Euro-all snow, significant accumulations
12z GFS Graphcast-all snow, significant accumulations
12z JMA-all snow, significant accumulations
18z EPS- 2 inch mean at hr144(biblical hit incoming)
12z CMCE- 3.5-4.0 mean, jackpot zone

Light hits:
18z Euro AI-fringed to South, light snow accumulations
12z Ukmet-fringed to South, light snow accumulations (18z probably worse going off 18zMOGREPS)
18z GEFS- 1.5 inch Snow mean
12z Euro Graphcast-fringed to the South, light snow accumulations

Complete whiffs:
18z GFS- no storm at all
12z ICON- Missed completely to the south
12z Spire- Missed completely to the south
 
rburrel2 said:
Just doing a recap for the upstate of SC as of this evening. I've bolded the runs that I think are the most important right now:

Major hits:
12z CMC-snow to ice significant accumulations
18z Euro-all snow, significant accumulations
12z GFS Graphcast-all snow, significant accumulations
12z JMA-all snow, significant accumulations
18z EPS- 2 inch mean at hr144(biblical hit incoming)
12z CMCE- 3.5-4.0 mean, jackpot zone

Light hits:
18z Euro AI-fringed to South, light snow accumulations
12z Ukmet-fringed to South, light snow accumulations (18z probably worse going off 18zMOGREPS)
18z GEFS- 1.5 inch Snow mean
12z Euro Graphcast-fringed to the South, light snow accumulations

Complete whiffs:
18z GFS- no storm at all
12z ICON- Missed completely to the south
12z Spire- Missed completely to the south
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Not gonna lie, this could be straight useful if at the end of each day we had an area-specific model summary.
 
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