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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Looks great.... and literally all of the no snow solutions are from cold/surpressed looks. We're positioned as perfectly as you can be for a day 9 threat right now. Also this snow mean doesn't show ice, but there are several banger ice storms showing.

Screen Shot 2025-01-12 at 6.38.36 AM.png
 
What's stupid is it looks like the threats aren't gonna end anytime soon... The pattern seems locked in to a southern wave train along an arctic boundary to our south for a solid week or so starting with this first threat. At the perfect climo time of year. We've made Januarys great again! I'm gonna need more firewood.
 
The snow mean on this GEFS run is going to be good, but not eye-popping. But my goodness... you can hang this one in the louvre looking at the southern wave train in to cold 850 temps... wall to wall threats from hr 200 through the end of the run. Also showing a ridiculous amount of ice storms.
 
rburrel2 said:
The snow mean on this GEFS run is going to be good, but not eye-popping. But my goodness... you can hang this one in the louvre looking at the southern wave train in to cold 850 temps... wall to wall threats from hr 200 through the end of the run. Also showing a ridiculous amount of ice storms.
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It’s great to till be in the game for another outlet of weeks. Do you see the possibility of strong high pressures lining up favorably to our northeast to filter down the cold more than we’ve seen? It seems like the polar vortex piece as been blocking these highs from coming across.
 
packfan98 said:
It’s great to till be in the game for another outlet of weeks. Do you see the possibility of strong high pressures lining up favorably to our northeast to filter down the cold more than we’ve seen? It seems like the polar vortex piece as been blocking these highs from coming across.
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With regards to our day 9 threat... the trends have been to build in the cold a little better and orient the high pressure a little more favorably over the last 36 hrs. To the point where most models are showing a hit or supression now. What we want to look for is a good cold press and shifting east of the cold/high pressure,(that's what we've seen happen)... but also more separation between initial front and the follow up wave... (that's what the 06z GFS is doing; the euro has a little less separation, but still works out; the euro AI has very little separation so it's not as robust with the over running in to colder air.

The 00z CMC is about the only model still showing the cold press not making it through our area before the follow up wave comes along. I suspect it's wrong here. It's still far enough out in time that you never know though, could be right.
 
12z Mon time stamp on the Euro Familia up above is only a week from tommorow. Hopefully its round 1 of several rounds of fireworks. Id love to get in a 8-10 period of multiple hits. We actually just did that up here the first 10 days of January with the clipper hit,, last Sunday front end little thump followed up by this past Friday. Albeit they all qualified more toward novelty events.
This multi day threat perking up for the week of Jan 20, reminds me of the multi threat we got in Jan 2000. Artic front draped across deep south, GOM for 7-10 days. Leaves door wide open for all kinds of possibilities.
I love the orientation of the depicted stalled front, from east TX, pointed NE with a heavy pos tilt off GA coast. Thats key right there.
 
Biggest thing we need to hold onto is shifting the frontal boundary east and south. Everyone here knows this will moderate some. It always does. We want the cold press as far south as we can get it this far out. The southern jet is going to be on fire so we will have multiple chances to score. The perfect setup would be to stall the front on the gulf coast and about 100 miles off shore on the Atlantic side with the cold press directly over head. I really like the look for multiple overrunning opportunities here (it’s about the only way we can get snow these days). Biggest thing is we want the cold press to be east and south and then we go from there.
 
This coming weekend's storm potential, per NWS HSV Alabama:
"not expecting any winter precipitation with the
system forecast to move through Friday night and during the day on
Saturday."
 
Webberweather53 said:
The brutally cold air mass that enters the CONUS next week originates over Siberia 10 days earlier.

Starting out around -30C to -40C

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/ogimet_nav?lang=en

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/hypub-bin/trajtype.pl

View attachment 162918

View attachment 162919
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Now that's what I like to see. As everyone's already talking about, it's very likely we're going to see a massive overrunning event down the road, just have to figure out where it's heading. Massive TMB going to be draped somewhere nearby.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-pwat-7352800.png
 
Ridge of high pressure near Alaska in the medium range drags this brutally cold Siberian Air mass across the North Pole & drives it into the CONUS.

Yeah, a lot of things still have to go right for us to get a winter storm here, but I'd absolutely take my chances w/ this look.

The longwave trough is also in a more classic positioning for an overrunning style event in the southern US, w/ WSW flow mid-level flow aloft.

Screenshot 2025-01-12 at 7.00.54 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ridge of high pressure near Alaska in the medium range drags this brutally cold Siberian Air mass across the North Pole & drives it into the CONUS.

Yeah, a lot of things still have to go right for us to get a winter storm here, but I'd absolutely take my chances w/ this look.

The longwave trough is also in a more classic positioning for an overrunning style event in the southern US, w/ WSW flow mid-level flow aloft.

View attachment 162922
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You can't draw it up much better than that 👍
 
1300m said:
Now that's what I like to see. As everyone's already talking about, it's very likely we're going to see a massive overrunning event down the road, just have to figure out where it's heading. Massive TMB going to be draped somewhere nearby.
View attachment 162921
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If this depiction is right (yeah I know, too far out) the low would likely track just east of the light blue line 50-100 miles off the coast which would be hits especially NC/SC/GA and VA. Of course that depends on the timing, after the cold press, or before and the strength of a low. Caveat being it is a ways out but deserves at least some precursory attention
 
MichaelJ said:
If this depiction is right (yeah I know, too far out) the low would likely track just east of the light blue line 50-100 miles off the coast which would be hits especially NC/SC/GA and VA. Of course that depends on the timing, after the cold press, or before and the strength of a low. Caveat being it is a ways out but deserves at least some precursory attention
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Broadly speaking, it's a great look. Plentiful supply of cold, dry air to the north and west with healthy surface high pressure for delivery and moisture just to the south and east.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-7352800.png
 
Twister said:
Ok thanks that's what I was thinking but it just seems like most of our overrunning events are Ice storms
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This last event was an overrunning event and many areas saw SN, IP and ZR. Just depends on the setup of warm air above you.
 
Chazwin said:
January 1988 was 100% an overrunning event. It’s just a matter of how far south the deep cold air is able to push
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Can someone please clarify overrunning for me? I keep hearing that thrown around. How is overrunning different than than a low, cyclogenesis that brings the precip up from the south? Is there no low pressure system? WAA without a storm persay?

I'm used to the standard Miller A/B, but I'm not sure what to look for in an "overrunning" system. Thanks.
 
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