Wintry January 21-23 2025

[Mitch West]

12z Euro AI.

That boundary is so close.. I think people don't realize how close this timeframe really is to us. We have got to find a way to work this to us or we will be flooding the complaining thread.

 

[RBR71]

12z Euro AI.

That boundary is so close.. I think people don't realize how close this timeframe really is to us. We have got to find a way to work this to us or we will be flooding the complaining thread.
View attachment 162865View attachment 162866

This thread has almost turned into the complaining thread, it amazes me people can't figure out what's discussion post and what's banter.

 

[Chazwin]

-NAO gone. PNA headed to neutral or lower. Meh.... probably going to be some messy threats, if any materialize.

This is when I remember January 1988 happened with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA.

 

[packfan98]

Strong signal on the GEFS for sure. A few of those ensembles would shut down parts of the southeast for sure. It’s good to know our window of opportunity is still open, even for the Deep South.

 

[Mitch West]

Strong signal on the GEFS for sure. A few of those ensembles would shut down parts of the southeast for sure. It’s good to know our window of opportunity is still open, even for the Deep South.

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Yep that boundary that is likely gonna set up somewhere shows up well in the panels. Gonna need multiple shots here. Someone could get hit twice IMO.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

that’s a big MJO pulse in the IO mid-late month

 

[Brent]

Hype alive and well here... Talk of near zero temperatures already

 

[Rain Cold]

Strong signal on the GEFS for sure. A few of those ensembles would shut down parts of the southeast for sure. It’s good to know our window of opportunity is still open, even for the Deep South.

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There are a 3 big hits that really plus up the mean for NC, which is fine at this point. There are a couple other light events, too.

The mid-south into VA looks like more of a sure bet, but we are definitely in the game. I always like seeing the Ops showing snow along with the ensembles, which we saw with 12z. So that is good.

 

[Rain Cold]

This is when I remember January 1988 happened with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA.

It can happen for sure. But those 1988s are pretty hard to come by.

 

[Brent]

From the NWS here

A strong arctic front will punch into the area next Friday or
Saturday bringing bitterly cold air back to the area for early
next week. Ensemble support is extremely high for this outcome
given its lead time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol we crossed the sun @SD

 

[NCSNOW]

Sorta Dejuvua , this energy drops down 4 corners region behind our big coldfront next weekend 0n all the ops. Luckily none tuck in the sw/baja. This 12z CAN with its big pos tilt out front sends the energy for what could be lengthy overunning. Or this could wrap up into one big wall of wax an come out, phase.

 

[Pops]

This pattern looks brutally cold for me in New Mexico.

Single digit lows possible if we even get a little snow

Lol we crossed the sun @SD View attachment 162880View attachment 162881

Cold and dry

 

[Myfrotho704_]

honestly though we wouldn’t see Barney’s again after this last one flunk. Here’s a chance to try again…

 

[albertwilsonjr]

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[JHS]

This is when I remember January 1988 happened with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA.

A repeat of that would be very nice. There would be very few losers on this board. Upper teens and snow was nice that day with no threat of ZR in sight. Sleet cut my totals some, but helped keep the ground covered here for ten days.

 

[BullCityWx]

A repeat of that would be very nice. There would be very few losers on this board. Upper teens and snow was nice that day with no threat of ZR in sight. Sleet cut my totals some, but helped keep the ground covered here for ten days.

We even had sleet 75 miles NE of you

 

[SD]

Lol we crossed the sun @SD View attachment 162880View attachment 162881

Swinging for the fences with that overall look though. That one moving through just after 240 was hot

 

[BullCityWx]

Swinging for the fences with that overall look though. That one moving through just after 240 was hot

You get that front on the other side of the mtns and rest it just off shore and you’ve setup a firehose of moisture with cold air

 

[SD]

You get that front on the other side of the mtns and rest it just off shore and you’ve setup a firehose of moisture with cold air

Higher end total liquid precip event especially for January doesn't seem impossible here

 

[CaryWx]

Lol we crossed the sun @SD View attachment 162880View attachment 162881

Is it me or does that just look like fropa?

 

[rburrel2]

Icon is bringing the cold east now. Great trends today.

 

[Brent]

Snow and highs in the 20s next Sunday Monday on TV

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Incoming ?

 

[Brent]

According to the GFS we make a run for 60 on Friday and then lucky to get out of the 20s on Saturday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably a swing and miss but i like me a look like this

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meanwhile #rip

 

[SD]

Probably a swing and miss but i like me a look like this View attachment 162887

Yeah surprised it rolled through dry. Overall evolution otherwise looks fine

 

[SnowwxAtl]

It seems GFS pushed the front to far east and it seems CMC has it stalling over TN Valley.

 

[wow]

What is this for exactly?

 

[Brent]

What is this for exactly?

Well there's at least an Arctic front for part of the SE. Beyond that ???

 

[SnowwxAtl]

60 to 32 in ATL on CMC is wow to me! Geesh!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What is this for exactly?

Kitty Hawk

 

[albertwilsonjr]

Kitty Hawk View attachment 162890

Not a bad look


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[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is a hit and splits the gfs/cmc at H5

 

[weatherfide]

0Z Euro has snow almost to Houston at 204 hours in. I know it's far out there, but the pattern seems to be legit.

 

[accu35]

Let’s play again

 

[accu35]

Let me cash out now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS with yet another really strong signal. Trough axis shifting east, losing the SER and trending to a +PNA, favoring areas more east. This is sucking me back in….

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is ridiculous…