Mahomeless
Member
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
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It's been jumping around a bit more than I would have expected based on its performance with the last storm.....it's not locked in yet
rburrel2
Member
It's been pretty consistent the last 4-5 runs with the large scale features, imo. (just undulating with the strength of the wave and how much it's rooted in to the main trough). (But it's showing signs of settling in, imo)
It locked on to the last storm between 144-168hrs... and that's about where we are getting now with this one, as such, every run coming out in this timeframe is critically important in my mind.
Mahomeless
Member
Makes sense....considering 15% of model data is pointing that way....
If you're scared, say scared..
AIFS has been consistently showing a massive ZR storm. Last several runs look very consistent.
Not 60% chance of suppression, but 60% chance of no low forming at all?? So they're saying 60% to GFS vs 40% for ECMWF/EPS/AIFS/ICON/CMC/CMCE/UKMET/MOGREPs ??? Doesn't make much sense to me.
GFS Graphcast is ultra slow to come out, so this is the 06z run, but it has the 32 deg line at the surface stuck along the NC and SC coastline for the full storm
Shaggy
Member
What 2018? Seems like RDU set a record for consecutive hours below freezing during that epic January freeze
Another increase in members with snowfall on the 12z eps.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I would in that area too....they cant broadcast anything wintry down that far until 36hrs out when its 100% known. If theres ANY possibility it could go nothing id hug that like crazy too
rburrel2
Member
here's a 4 run loop of the Euro AI.. not including the run that just came out, which is similar in timing, just on the wetter/stronger side of things.
Mahomeless
Member
36 hours out is ANYTHING BUT 100% known.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z NBM snow and ice totals
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GFS Graphcast run at 500mb. It's a CMC look
Man the eps for Charlotte is a beauty.
Not sure if the 12z UKMET ens were shared but still look good to me, lot of different model outputs showing something, hard not to be cautiously optimistic
There needs to be something that kicks the wave in the SW east - either an upstream kicker wave that arrives from the NW or movement of the NE Pacific ridge east (or combo of the 2)
Maybe I'm jaded or not very smart (probably both) but that loop that 1300 shared a few post back of the Euro ENS H5 height/vorticity map was a little concerning to me. Didn't like the look of the pac ridge trying to pinch off/roll over the top (wave break?), allowing that SW to continue to push west
UKMet Ensemble 6hr Precip and 10th & 90th percentile Ensemble Member 850mb temperature at hr168
You guys are absolutely insane for trying to nail
Specifics down right now. We have a huge signal. LFG. I don’t have the energy anymore to model watch.
Specifics down right now. We have a huge signal. LFG. I don’t have the energy anymore to model watch.
Philstorm91
Member
My grandma remembered that storm. She was an 11 year old girl on a farm in Louisiana near the MS/LA line back then. She told us how she had been so excited at first to see snow, but that the cold that followed for the next several days meant the snow stuck, so she hated having to deal with it for so long. That was her first time seeing snow too.
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You need to hydrate & report back then.
It's a concern, yes, and don't want that trend to continue more and more.....but nice to see other modeling / other EPS members producing a good storm into the cold.
I need a Time Machine. Getting older now….
Euro AI run has a kicker wave upstream coming out of the Canadian west coast that kicks our SW wave east
It’s murky, the more we do it, the pac derived wave gets stuck, but then we start playing with the northern stream digging more and probably get a cleaner solution, don’t wanna go into the in between route though
I would prefer to kick it out into long fetch SW flow overrunning, then sharpen it just a touch as it moves east (not too much and keep it cold out front)
WPC Day 7 surface map. Low over central Florida. 1036 mb + High over the Virginia
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That was issued before the good runs
Mahomeless
Member
Long range NAM (worthless I know) should start to show our energy out west very soon. Just another data set to look at.
Alias47
Member
Is there a huge difference between B'ham and Huntsville?
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Waiting on an updated WPC day 3-7 hazards map. Expecting some fireworks perhaps
GoDuke
Member
It’s gonna be an I 85 south and east classic storm.
They are very similar. Not much difference
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP going with cold and dry next week Not even a mention of clouds. Going to be some very intelligent folks or badly busted forecasts.
