iGRXY
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Are you worried at all we are trending towards leaving the energy behind? That seems the way this is going a bit
HP Texas-Kentucky-offshore Va. Banana high?
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- Jan 23, 2021
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Just did the math and the Euro had 20:1 ratios. Wild.
Trend on the EPS is to more squashing of the wave into the SW and lowering heights off Maine. So, we wouldn't want the SW wave trend to continue into oblivion. But for now, it's trending to a bit more cold out front, and a southerly storm track on the mean.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Definitely, usually I can benefit from a storm that’s a little northerly but I need it to hang down in south central GA before trending north. Generally it seems that more Tuesday night solutions are better for the board a whole vs Wednesday morning
It’s certainly a risk, more connection from the main TPV trough like 06z is ideal
iGRXY
Member
If this was say 8-9, that would be more concern. Right now I think it can only go so much further
THIS IS ONLY THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY LOL
iGRXY
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Gulf coast snowfall footprint continues to grow with each passing run
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iGRXY
Member
Just beautiful
iGRXY
Member
3-4” means on the EPS at day 7 is just asking for a monster
It’s hardly moving the snow axis on the mean the last few runs. Aaaaaaaa
Does that include sleet?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Oh my, that is one heck of a mean, and it's not exactly complete lala land either.
NCSNOW
Member
Looking at all ens and Op clown Maps. That's a big footprint being laid out now consistently over the same area. I feel way to confident we are getting ready to get big dogged. I'm there. Its coming.
Pops
Member
Really nice trends for all of us really
RollTide18
Member
I’m nearly out of words to say, I mean you really can’t get much better than this
This is day 7.5 dude. Holy smokes. How’s H5 looking compared to previous?
rburrel2
Member
Ratios will likely be higher than the stock 10:1 the EPS showing on the northern side of that snow fall maxima as well, if most of the members are simliar to the operational with the overrunning out front.
Word of caution -- EPS showed a MEAN of 12" of snow for Dallas at day 4-5 ahead of the last system.. they ended up with around 1-2" and mostly rain.
Easily the coldest mean with a storm I’ve ever seen on the EPS at this range 
rburrel2
Member
Man... the ratio's were insane on that operational Euro run... I'm at -10C or colder at all layers during the height of the event. It's got me at 3.7 inches with kuchera and only 2.2 with 10:1. That's some wild stuff you don't see often down here.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Not trying to be a downer....but there are 18 members basically with little to nothing though. Is this a scenario where its a monster (Phasing) or not much more than a Nuisance?. I just know TV guys are gonna say "ohhh welp lookie here 18 that have almost nothing so you can toss bc Mean is skewed ..."
Definitely worth a mention though that this system isn’t as complicated, that one had 3 different injections of energy. But still, every southern snow setup is complicated in general. But that setup was tweaks that had massive sfc implications for all or nothing in many locations
The biggest fail point I can see is if we don't bring out the southwestern wave fast enough as @griteater has been saying. But with the western ridge holding firm and the TPV trough remaining connected, hopefully that does not happen.
RobertRath
Member
Can anyone remember the few storms that were continuously modeled to be suppressed and stayed that way? Seems like there was a storm in mid December one year maybe 2018 that started out modeled for a S AL event and never really changed.
Yeah, get me these maps on Monday and we batten down alllll the hatches
rburrel2
Member
That's why you want to be on the north end of the EPS jackpot zone, not the south end. A tale as old as time.
Also, that was a boundary layer issue, which we know can crush dreams... but we won't have boundary layer issues with the storm.
Yes the heaviest axis shifted NE. They are a little more phase dependent out there. The birth zone of a southern winter storm seems to be a little more difficult to iron out
Honestly if we can dig the TPV related trough more SW we could change the characteristics of this setup to more of a miller A
Yep and that's what we've been seeing to some extent already - EPS is trending that way and the means keep increasing.
Philstorm91
Member
I'm a member of that met's weather forum too. He's good!
chapelhillwx
Member
Yeah, I remember in college 2014ish? Greenville SC. Every single ensemble member showed 8"+. Ended up with 1" of slop.