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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Ollie Williams said:
I’m really happy with the broader long-wave pattern. All we need to work on, is minute changes in digging and cold-press and we’ll be fine
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Exactly. How little changes is necessary for nothing to become 3-6” such as in 2014. I know it wouldn’t be the “big dog” that everyone wants, but I’ve only seen greater than five inches of snow only twice in my life so I’ll take it.
 
Aint mad at the UKmet thaf 100% is one you say stay there and then in few days see it get a sooner start not as supressed and a little jog NW
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro is wild. Puts in work with the northern stream for the first storm so it’s a snow event. Then ejects the second storm after and brings an ice storm. Wild solution here
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The Icon was fixing to do the same at 12Z. Look at last frame on H5 and you can see clear as day. These 2 models are the highest Res run physic models out there, so something to watch for
 
From what I've seen and heard, the modern Euro has a tendency to be a bit suppressed several days out like this. I like where we sit right now Charlotte to Raleigh when you put all of the models together and take into account how these setups normally trend when you have a gulf low / warm advection precip influence. At range like this, you want to see a decent storm that is located to your south, with enough cold air to the north.
 
Rain Cold said:
FYI, I edited this to enlarge the map.

I mean, absolutely spectacular high pressure with absolutely spectacular QPF signal. These are the ones we used to draw when we were little.
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I try really hard to stay composed and professional on this forum but hot dang if this isn’t looking spectacular. GFS is a clear outlier, no doubt at all about that. We are racing towards a major winter storm, details clearly still to be determined.
 
griteater said:
From what I've seen and heard, the modern Euro has a tendency to be a bit suppressed several days out like this. I like where we sit right now Charlotte to Raleigh when you put all of the models together and take into account how these setups normally trend when you have a gulf low / warm advection precip influence. At range like this, you want to see a decent storm that is located to your south, with enough cold air to the north.
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It was very weak and suppressed for a while with our last storm, which wound up being a qpf bomb when all was said and done. I kept up with the runs and it was giving me .15-.3 liquid for quite a while. I wound up with over an inch of liquid.
 
Rain Cold said:
These suppressed solutions are great to see. We'll take them as long as the models offer them to us!
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I think last week's storm was our appetizer. I'm cautiously optimistic ATM. NW trend is not a certain but I've seen this dance to many times December 17 and Jan 22. Both dropped 8-12 for Burke County.
 
To recap 12z ops

EC - major winter storm, Deep South Tuesday
UK - major winter storm, Deep South Tuesday/Wednesday
CMC - major winter storm, TX to Carolinas Tuesday/Wednesday
ICON - winter storm, Gulf coast & Coastal GA/SC/NC Tuesday/Wednesday
GFS - snow showers, immediate Gulf cost and Coastal GA/SC/NC Tuesday/Wednesday

And these are ops mind you at a 7 day lead, GFS would be considered an outlier at this point, haven't dove through ens yet which as stated yesterday are a safer and usually more accurate bet at this stage. The ceiling is certainly high based on what ejects out of the desert SW/4-corners, if anything does and when, regardless we still get a significant overrunning waa event.
 
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