Showmeyourtds
Member
Wow....Canadian comes in with another smash job...
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Artic always shallow cold but good news just like last event there was a overestimation of those 700 and 850 temps in alot of examples
GFS actually on its own with what it does with the energy in west and just not releasing it downstream and then ridiculous suppressed afterwards.
The ICON looks good just the most suppressed of the models currently running similar to each other.
Am I out of line thinking the CMC translated east much better this run?
12z CMC has heavy snow to sleet at RDU with temps falling into the mid teens.
Stormsfury
Member
SnowNiner
Member
7 inches of sleet somewhere! Lmao
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah much flatter with the contours rather than sharply SW to NE
Stormlover
Member
woah 
Cary_Snow95
Member
TT and Pivotal must have precip depiction issues because the snow maps don’t match
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks like RDU loses 850s at the height and goes to heavy sleet
I can’t see the maps but I guess that it is because of the massive SW flow aloft that is one of the main drivers of precip during an overrunning event. One of the downsides to not having a true Miller A storm where you get a closed low at 700mb to help with CAA to the north side.
GFS is on it's own with this delayed system turning up.... but you can tell with the climo that once it actually gets the energy out west lined up and sends it earlier it would be similar results as the UKMet/CMC/EUro
Canadian is a 24-30 hour event
Cary_Snow95
Member
Sleet galore
Oconeexman
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The icon was somewhat suppressed at 7 days out last storm but still showed a decent hit for the carolinas and Ga. Then at day 6 and 5 started dropping nukes. Was around page 76 of the last storm thread. All of the operational model runs were throwing nukes and over amped runs mostly. just a few runs were suppressed.
Bigedd09
Member
If the Canadian run happened imagine how long it would stay on the ground. I still have some snow/sleet left in shady areas an only got 0.5 inch. Imagine several inches of snow then several inches of sleet lol
It’s only 2 days later than every other model. Watch this be the time it ends up being right
as cold a storm as I can remember being modeled. GEM has this thing dropping into Texas in 120hr
Cary_Snow95
Member
Anyone got sleet maps
Yep, ideally the 500mb vort max and all of the mid level lows (700/850 mb) are tracking to your south (March 1983 is a great example for Atlanta). In lieu of that, with a big overrunning setup like this, you need a bunch of cold air out front that is also deep enough to hold off the approaching warmth aloft.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Interesting. Seems the weather bell map may show more snow over RDU then. Because this amount of sleet doesn’t match the qpf at all and there’s almost no ZR over RDU
The GFS does eventually get together for the mid south and Apps (and MA).
GEFS digging a bit more at 126. Might be a decent run 
Last 2 Candian runs look like January 1988 but with more tilt.
UKMet - SW wave kicks out...looks fairly suppressed with track
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Looks like a lot of suppressed members on the GEFS. I thought suppression was not our main concern? I'm fine with it at this point. It's probably over-done.
Our main concern varies from day to day
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
As I’ve been saying for 2 days, with a PV pressing down to this magnitude, I don’t see why suppression isn’t the only concern.
ghost1
Member
Has the Canadian ever out performed the GFS or euro for a potential winter storm?
GEFS looks good and much improved over the 6z, gonna be swings back and forth, storm still there
Suppression is never a concern. If you get a cold suppressed storm that smokes the gulf coast then so be it. But an anomalous event like that shouldn’t be at the top of your worry list
There's just no way we are going to see an all snow event with this setup...that is a huge atlantic ridge. Front end is our hope and hope rest is sleet.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Eh, I’ll take my chances with a decently amped storm anytime vs sitting here dry and cold and admiring a frost that I’ve seen probably 40 times this winter.