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Wintry January 21-23 2025

From NWS RAH:

The next big question is how shortwaves moving through the longwave trough could cause cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico or along the south east coast, and how far west precipitation extends into a significantly cold air mass across the Carolinas. Models have been back-and-forth between offshore precipitation and precipitation extending well into North Carolina, with almost regular flip-flopping between model cycles. Probabilistic forecasts basically show at least a slight chance of snow between Tuesday and Thursday, which highlights the uncertainty, as is very unlikely to snow for that long. Instead, the models are having a hard time, focusing on one specific period of precipitation. For now, we will continue to
indicate a slight chance of snow with the caveat that this will definitely change and the system could have anywhere from no impact to significant impact.
 
SnowedIn1 said:
KFFC Afternoon Update:

View attachment 163877
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They mentioned that it is just as likely that there WON'T be a Winter Storm

"However, there is another scenario that looks just
as likely at this time, in which no low ends of developing on the
coast. In this scenario, we get no winter impacts"
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Doesn't GSP cover roughly this area?

View attachment 163873

No clouds even?
Click to expand...
Here's their disco....evidently they put their long range forecast based on the Euro Op. Seriously? CMC ens, Euro Ens, Ukmet Ens, based it on a 7 day op. Ok I guess that's a choice. They must feel like it's going to be suppressed. I guess it's this type of thing that helps fan the flame of the fear of suppression.

The heart of the arctic airmass
will creep closer on Tuesday with piedmont daybreak minimums
more solidly in the teens and widespread mountain single digits.
Lots of uncertainty exists among the medium range models for
the new Day 6 fcst and given the recently received 12z op ECMWF,
will plan on maintaining a shotgun slight chance pop for
Tuesday as a ribbon of shallow moisture could streak in within
the fast westerly flow aloft before shifting east of the region
for next Wednesday leading to an essentially dry and continued
cold forecast.
 
SnowNiner said:
Here's their disco....evidently they put their long range forecast based on the Euro Op. Seriously? CMC ens, Euro Ens, Ukmet Ens, based it on a 7 day op. Ok I guess that's a choice. They must feel like it's going to be suppressed. I guess it's this type of thing that helps fan the flame of the fear of suppression.

The heart of the arctic airmass
will creep closer on Tuesday with piedmont daybreak minimums
more solidly in the teens and widespread mountain single digits.
Lots of uncertainty exists among the medium range models for
the new Day 6 fcst and given the recently received 12z op ECMWF,
will plan on maintaining a shotgun slight chance pop for
Tuesday as a ribbon of shallow moisture could streak in within
the fast westerly flow aloft before shifting east of the region
for next Wednesday leading to an essentially dry and continued
cold forecast.
Click to expand...
They also had a disco before the last event basically saying nothing was gonna happen at this exact lead time
 
SnowNiner said:
Here's their disco....evidently they put their long range forecast based on the Euro Op. Seriously? CMC ens, Euro Ens, Ukmet Ens, based it on a 7 day op. Ok I guess that's a choice. They must feel like it's going to be suppressed. I guess it's this type of thing that helps fan the flame of the fear of suppression.

The heart of the arctic airmass
will creep closer on Tuesday with piedmont daybreak minimums
more solidly in the teens and widespread mountain single digits.
Lots of uncertainty exists among the medium range models for
the new Day 6 fcst and given the recently received 12z op ECMWF,
will plan on maintaining a shotgun slight chance pop for
Tuesday as a ribbon of shallow moisture could streak in within
the fast westerly flow aloft before shifting east of the region
for next Wednesday leading to an essentially dry and continued
cold forecast.
Click to expand...
That’s something I’ve noticed GSP’s discussions the last couple years. The very seldom mention ensembles
 
BullCityWx said:
the one thing I’ll caution about the AIFS on stormvista is I believe anything frozen is accounted on those maps. The midlands and coastal plains of NC/SC/GA might be significant sleet or freezing rain
Click to expand...

You would be correct. Based off the maps I have looked at, while 700mb and 925mb are more than cold enough, 850mb is too warm through the bullseye area of South Carolina on the Stormvista snowfall map. It'd be a lot of sleet.
 
tractor girl said:
I wish we could have a moratorium on posting these 5+ day clownish ice maps they almost never verify
Click to expand...
What's the difference between posting ZR outputs vs posting model outputs in general? If AIFS verified, there'd be a massive ice storm. And it's not as far fetched as GDPS, which has a significant cold bias.

So share ZR maps.. or share QPF maps.. or share MSLP maps.. either way, the model is predicting an ice storm.
 
KyloG said:
How do we know it won't verify? We have a highly anomalous cold air being dumped very far south into the conus.
Click to expand...
100%. Many thought the maps were ridiculous when they were pumping out 1-2 inches of freezing rain before the Mid Feb 2014 storm… and then it happened
 
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